SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/14
  
  

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Washout of a day for us on Sunday.  


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/14

 

Race  1

1.Poseidon's Heir

2.Lookn Fine as Wine 

3.Bit Coin Queen

#9 POSEIDON'S HEIR hasn't shown much of late, but with maiden's we allow ourselves to delve anywhere in the P.P.'s ( as they're maidens for a good reason, ya know ), and this one posted an adjusted 56.1 ( at a substantially higher level ) right here last year. Filly closed out the super at 17-1 up at Oldsmar last time out and may move forward in today's 3rd off the L/O try. #8 LOOKN FINE AS WINE perked up the last time he had blinkers added AND the last time he went from dirt to turf. May get overlooked in the odds department. #2 BIT COIN QUEEN as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 6-4-5-1-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Cloud Break

2.Go Jo Jo Go

3.Dannyhill

#4 CLOUD BREAK posted a crisp morning move first time out, then followed that up with a couple of maintenance breezes, so obviously the connections are content with what they have. First foal out of an unraced dam has a paternal grandsire who was 9:2-3-3 going short on the sand, and the mommy's daddy was 1 for 3 doing the same. #7 GO JO JO GO has been performing steadily if not spectacularly in the mornings for today's overture, but draws well and totes along a juicy Tomlinson figure of 400. January foal has a maturity edge over the entire allotment and poses a threat if able to catch a flyer. #1 DANNYHILL is bred decently for the trip, as four different family members in the genealogical tree have a cumulative 7 fer 11 mark at the trip. 

 

Race  3

1.Our Time

2.Freddy Soto

3.Sea Lover

#1 OUR TIME hung up an adj. 70.8 in the lone turf attempt, and it came just before a layoff, against tougher, & with the pistachios, which are no longer part of the makeup. Gelding is available for purchase for the 1st time and note that his only score came when breaking from the inside. #3 FREDDY SOTO was extremely game when blowing up the tote board at 73-1 last time out, and while this is an appreciable hike in class, perhaps the light bulb stays on for a while. #7 SEA LOVER has won both of his starts thus far and we'd be remiss in excluding just because of that alone.  OFF TURF: 6-9-7-2-3

 

Race  4 

1.Tiger's Back

2.U S S Colton

3.East Code

#8 TIGER'S BACK has lost by double digit lengths in each start to date, but $370,000 purchase finds himself at an all time low and sheds some weight while getting an aggressive jockey change as Saez takes over. There's a nifty DRF Formulator stat in play, as Romans is a bright candle when cutting back his turf to dirt runners off breaks of less than two fortnighgts ( 34-1 or < ), as he's 7:4-2-0 in that regards ( $3 x 2, $22 & $5 ). #3 U S S COLTON will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver in this spot. as he drops for the 2nd straight time, and is another one making the surface/distance/class switch. #5 EAST CODE was fanned six wide in the bow but may grab a slice with a tidier sojourn. 

 

Race  5

1.Fifth Title

2.Solar Warning

3.Crea's Bklyn Law

#1 FIFTH TITLE has been quite yucky of late, but has never seen these depths before, and is one for five when breaking from the pine. Meeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 SOLAR WARNING tossed in quite the clunker a week & a half back, but put forth quality efforts in the duet just prior and has a nice ledger right here at Hallandale Beach. #5 CREA'S BKLYN LAW goes south of the Mid Atlantic circuit for the first time today, but has hit the board in more than half of his entrances into the starting apparatus, and hard knocker may appreciate coming off the freshening. 

 

Race  6 

1.Starship Mallomar

2.Sharethegoodtimes ( AE )

3.Tizlegal

#3 STARSHIP MALLOMAR is displaying a crisp "Z" pattern from the most recent ( lost 4 1/4 from the quarter to the half, before re-gaining nearly that exact same amount from that point to the line ), and although the turf pedigree is light, we're assuaged by the fact that a solid longshot jockey sticks around, and that 1 of 4 returnees came back to win their next starts ( from three different races ). #14 SHARETHEGOODTIMES (AE) needs a little fortune to face the starter today, but should that come to bear, would be bringing along an intriguingly decent line from the debut, where she showed a nice middle move; exits the same heat as the above. #8 TIZLEGAL comes out of a race where nine comebackers went 2-1-1 in their followup engagements ( from seven different heats ) with an average Beyer improvement of 8.0 points per start.  OFF TURF: 4-7-2-6-15(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Money Ride

2.Flaming Hot

3.Maserati Man

#5 MONEY RIDE posted the best of his three turf numbers to date last time out, and if you were to prorate that to his finest dirt figaro, than what you get is a Beyer that is as strong -- if not stronger -- than others signed on. Chestnut chap really seems to be figuring things out, and we like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit. #3 FLAMING HOT beat only two home at 7-5 in a race where claimed, but we like that there's no scary drop in class, and aside from that, this one owns a crisp 4:1-3-0 mark right here. #1 MASERATI MAN has gone 35-38-57-76 in his quartet of dirt tries to date ( having never missed a superfecta ) and drops a bit off a 12-1 neck defeat. 

 

Race  8 

1.Joplin

2.Blessed Beast 

3.Magicgirl 

#6 JOPLIN may as well been running with a red bandana over her eyes in her last four calls to the post, as she's only finished in the first half of the field once during that time, but totes the lightest impost of her career & cuts back a panel and a half. Most timid of selections in a race where we were unable to chunk anyone with our first draft.  #2 BLESSED BEAST rallied stoutly to miss by only a neck in a near identical affair on April 19th, and is sensible going an extra 16th. #1 MAGICGIRL goes green to brown & cuts back in distance; may grind out a showing in this blase' bunch. 

 

Race  9 

1.Violent Times

2.Day by Day

3.Pacific Gale

#4 VIOLENT TIMES got the job done in his only "3rd off the L/O" foray, and has a nice 4:2-1-0 mark on this oval over a glib surface. Appears to be very tough here, especially coming in off a solid placing in an identical spot on 4/11. #2 DAY BY DAY has regained some form since switching barns at the end of fall, and "Horse for the Course" has partaken in the triple in 13 of 14 at Hallandale Beach. Leaving under as Maragh has done very little to chip away at that single digit win percentage ( 7 for 175 this year -- 4% ). #5 PACIFIC GALE completed the exacta in her only second off the break scenario and has a fair amount of back class. 

 

Race  10

1.Espiritu de Luna

2.Cookie Cove

3.Commission ( AE )

On our first draft of this race we narrowed this overflow field down to three, and of that troika, two have small -- but tight -- DRF Formulator stats, so let's get right to 'em. #5 ESPIRITU DE LUNA displayed very little in the comeback attempt, but from an itty bitty sampling, Casse is 2 for 2 when sand to sod with one turn turfers in the 29-57 day zip code ( $3 & $8 ). Additionally, the last poly outing ( against much, much tougher ) yielded an adj. fig. of 55, and y'all know how we feel that can translate over to the blades. #2 COOKIE COVE has handled herself admirably, and 4YO will be led over by a shotcaller who's won with half of his four locally based turf sprinters who were 1-2-3 44-50 days back & are 5-1 or undah ( $4 & $7 ), and there's a sub category of 1-1 w/maiden platers. #15 COMMISSION (AE) needs a little help to make it over to the frontside today, but outran her odds in a big way when finishing 2nd at MTH last August ( without teh wonder drug ), and gets in light in today's finale.  OFF TURF: 10-2-12-3-13(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:16. DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      33-252     ( $448.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %     86-252   ( 34.1% )(As of Wednesday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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