SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/15


Just a $15 winner yesterday. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #8 Cherokee Sound  Race 9 - #2 French Quarter


Please visit the Old Friends website and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


Gulfstream - 5/15


Race  1


2.Ninth of April

3.Rank and File

#11 ATAKAN was in the rear with the gear five weeks back, but that was on the dirt, and this one posted an adjusted 47.1 in the lone turf try ( which is okay enough for this allotment ), with blinkers, which are no longer part of the equation. We always give a runner ( especially a maiden ) two chances under a particular set of circumstances, and as this one has monstrous pedigree for the blades, we'll definitely give him a looksie. #10 NINTH OF APRIL takes a substantial drop for today's 3rd off the L/O try and gets a nice jockey change as well. #2 RANK AND FILE bested half a field of winners in the lone turf try, and the speed figure from that day was honest enough. Lightly raced four year old finds herself at her lowest level to date while picking up Zayas.  OFF TURF: 3-1-4-9(MTO)-12


Race  2

1.Travy Boy 

2.Take Charge Dude

3.Killa Dee 

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #6 TRAVY BOY is in excellent form these days ( a neck shy of having won his last duet ), and really digs the palm trees here, as attested by the 21:4-8-4 local ledger. We admire this one's ability to send or rate and should be tough in this spot. #3 TAKE CHARGE DUDE finished just behind the above in their recent tango, and we see no reason they won't be tight on the line once again, and you simply have to love that "declining" mark of 21:7-4-3. #4 KILLA DEE has essentially improved over his last sextet, and the 4 fer 9 career mark is difficult to ignore, no? 


Race  3


2.Madame Moon


#6 LASKA was a lively and daylight clear runner up versus slightly weaker 23 days back, but slides in three slots, sheds 32 oz., and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat attached. Over the last 1,826 days, Matz has pitched a perfect 3 for 3 mark when adding blinkers to his turf stayers in the 41 to 67 day bracket ( at 8-1 or less ). The winners came back $18, $12 & $4, and there are sub categories of 1-1 right here & 1-1 at this level. We love that Lasix is still eschewed. #3 MADAME MOON disappointed backers with a second place finish at 4 to 5 last time out, but the adjusted numero came back okay, and filly now gets a cozier slot. #5 TRULY posted a lifetime best numero in her lone "second off the L/O" foray & has been in the money 4 of 5 at Hallandale Beach.  OFF TURF: 3-6-1-10(MTO)-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 CHEROKEE SOUND doesn't make our first cut, so why would we take 3-1?


Race  4 

1.Prince Igor

2.Carson And I

3.Handsome Guy

#1 PRINCE IGOR showed a touch of early hoof in the overture, but had to tap on the brakes on when making his first left, and folded up the tent at the halfway point. Grey chap has been given an opportunity to sort things out a bit up at Palm Meadows, and five returnees from that affair have gone 5:1-0-0-3 in their subsequent outings, with four of them showing improvement in their return engagements. $200,000 auction purchase out of an unraced dam has Candy Ride in the bloodlines, who won his lone turf try. #3 CARSON AND I is better bred for the green than the brown, and the recent dirt try wasn't half bad. Four year old has a maturity edge over all but one signed on, and gets in with a feather. #11 HANDSOME GUY is bred very nicely for this deal, and has lost his procreating abilities since last in action.  OFF TURF: 1-10(MTO)-11-2-4


Race  5

1.The Gospel of John

2.Miss Maris


#3 THE GOSPEL OF JOHN is a lightly raced five year old who has been beset by a bevy of layoff lines throughout his abbreviated career, but the only tally occurred right here, and mare finds herself at her lowest level to date. Meeeek choice. #5 MISS MARIS is a nibbler by rote ( 18:1-5-4 ) who gets a jockey improvement to Emisael this afternoon and may spice things up a touch. Despite immolating baccala when last seen, #6 TALKTHETALK is confidently hiked up in class for the first try off the claim, and has crashed the fiesta in five of six @ the distance. 


Race  6 



3.Rodeo Red

We were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft here, so exercise caution. #8 YOUCANTCATCHCURLIN is a $175K bred animal who was bought for 170 large and can now be yours for about 1/5th of that price, so right off the bat, caveat emptor. Colt draws well for today's 2nd off the shelf dropdown, and we have a soft spot for any runner with "The Daddy" showing up in the family tree. #3 VIPER didn't appreciate the surface switch on 4/25, and is back on the sand now -- over which he's handled himself decently; encouraging to see Zayas stick around. #2 RODEO RED showed stark improvement BOTH times he went from the blades to the brown, and we wouldn't be surprised to see a cracker jack performance here. 


Race  7

1.Lil Bit Dangerous

2.Elite Appeal

3.Strella's War

We don't see the need to be delving an deeper than this troika for all our rolling bets...  #2 LIL BIT DANGEROUS hasn't been in action since last summer, but is showing crisp workouts every 6-13 days for today's return to action, and Biancone puts this one in a position to win as she plummets to an all time low. #5 ELITE APPEAL has a nice collection of BSF's to her credit, but always seems to be on the fringes, so we'll slide her into the "unders" in this spot. #6 STRELLA'S WAR is another sliding down the ladder, but the overall body of work tells us to incorporate.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-5-2-1-6(MTO)


Race  8 

1.Go Gator Girl Go 

2.Solid as a Rock 

3.Grey Jazmine

#3 GO GATOR GIRL GO outran her odds when completing the triple at 22-1 in her only "third off the L/O" jammie, and if you can be forgiving of the turf try &andthe return off an elongated absence, then perhaps there's an avenue to give this girl a chance? Sure, why not? #2 SOLID AS A ROCK finished third behind two next out winners when racing off a break at the end of January, but showed zippo on the lawn a month later & was subsequently given a bit of time off. Reunited w/ the pilot from her lone score and deserves a long look. After five dismal outings to begin her working life, #8 GREY JAZMINE was inexplicably bet down to 11-1 on April 23rd, and won by open lengths vs. maiden platers. Not sure about the 'miracle' that happened that day, but we'd be remiss in excluding again. 


Race  9 

1.Sensational Ride

2.Dakota's Dude 

3.Desert General

After back to back stinkers, #2 SENSATIONAL RIDE was snagged for $8,000 two months back, but that race was a disappointment as well, so Gonzalez gave this one a couple'a months off to figure things out a bit. The good news tho, is that when things were going swimmingly for this one, he won his only two starts off a hiatus, and when you factor in that lovely 23:11-5-2 record at the dist., how can you not afford him another shot -- for old time's sake? #6 DAKOTA'S DUDE is properly dropped in class after some bad efforts, and lost by merely a neck the only time he was in a "third off the layoff" scenario. #1 DESERT GENERAL has been a part of the triple in 6 of 7 at GP & is 4:1-1-1-1 when beginning from the innermost two slots; sensible addition.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 FRENCH QUARTER  NOTE: AS OF 3:52 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  10

1.Vigilantes Way 

2.Dream Marie

3.Up In Smoke

#6 VIGILANTES WAY apparently appreciated the respite, drop in class, change in scenery, or addition of the wonder drug ( or any combination thereof ) when procuring the sheepskin up at Oldsmar last time out, and the one thing about Shug, is that when he gets these lightly raced runners pointed in the right direction, they often stay hot for a while. Expecting another goodie. #7 DREAM MARIE won by a bunch the only time she went from 2X to 1X, and after jumping into the deep end of the pool, should appreciate today's smaller ( and weaker ) field. Leaving underneath as jockey has a woeful 4% win rate for the annum. #5 UP IN SMOKE has won all three starts and what the hell's wrong with that? 


Race  11


2.Nothin But Net 

3.Happy Danza

#8 MAKINALEGACY hung up an adjusted 59.1 in his lone "3rd off the hiatus" deal ( which was coincidentally a turf to dirt transition ) and could surprise at a solid mutuel offering. #3 NOTHIN BUT NET has completed the exacta in all of his three turf tries, most recently behind a winner that we tabbed, so he can be forgiven that one  ; )  All kidding aside, this one goes from a bug to Irad and looms a short price in the day's finale; FWIW, trainer 2 of 2 with 2nd off the claim turfers who were 1-2-3 < 39 days ago. #11 HAPPY DANZA rounds out the top three ( which is our way of saying "It's a hundred o'clock and time for bed." ).  OFF TURF: 1-3-8-11-9

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      34-263     ( $462.90 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %     90-263   ( 34.2% )(As of Friday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout