SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/16


Profitable grand slam for us yesterday ( $7 x 2, $6 & a 29-1 shot who dead heated for the win, paying $22 ), as well as two Rolling Doubles of $20 & $39, two Ice Cold Doubles of $25 & $119, and two Rolling Pick Threes of $75 & $756 !!

The best part of the day was that the big winner is a descendant of 'The Daddy' who won the Walter J. "Bijou" Cox Memorial Race in 2005 !! Thanks, dad !

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/16


Race  1

1.Super Hero Wanda

2.Trinni Sunshine

3.Awesome Evil

#6 SUPER HERO WANDA sure is a late bloomer, as this one begins her working life one month after her 5th blowing out of the candles. That being said, there are a few decent morning moves on the ledger, including a secondary gate jammie that was substantially better than that of the first. The lone sibling to race has won one of three dirt dashes ( 24K ), and the sire was a game customer, having won the BC Classic & Whitney, as well as owning a 1 for 2 mark in dirt dashes. Not hopeless in a forgettable opener. #1 TRINNI SUNSHINE got smacked around at the onset of the comebacker ( at 5-1 ), but has been a part of the superfecta in four of the other six outings, and drops down to an all time low today. #2 AWESOME EVIL is in poor form these days, but gets in light & is likely to be a bit overlooked at the windows today.   NOTE: AS OF 12:35, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Our Closure

2.La Incondicional ( AE )

3.Chiclet's Dream

We always encourage our readers to be forgiving of pre & post L/O running lines, as quite often something went awry in the former, while perhaps not being fully cranked up for the latter. Knowing that, #5 OUR CLOSURE won two of four & four of seven just prior to the last duet ( 1-15 prior ), and is but 1 1/4 lengths shy of being 2 of 2 in second off the L/O tries. #13 LA INCONDICIONAL (AE) comes in today off a sparkling career best numero against essentially similar type three dozen days back, running up the local boxscore to 6:3-0-2; Vasquez takes over for an injured Bobblehead. #11 CHICLET'S DREAM is a game gal who's hit the board in 11 of 12 lifetime, and that's reason enough to include.  OFF TURF: 1-7-4-14(MTO)-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING IN A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-10-9.


Race  3

1.Sammie Sunshine


3.Forever Marta

#1 SAMMIE SUNSHINE is a jazzy 21:6-6-0 right here, has completed the exacta in two of three "2nd off the shelf" attempts, and has won both her starts when first to load. Chance to rebound at a solid numero. #6 BARGAINAIRE has partaken in the triple in six of her last seven calls to the post, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon -- an angle we've always been fond of. #5 FOREVER MARTA ( "This is Marta."    "Marta -- hello." ) has gone down & up the Beyer Ladder over her last septet, but won her only start at the dx., and two of five returnees from the most recent scored in their subsequent outings ( from three individual heats ), and gal could spice things up w/some pace to cut into. 


Race  4 

1.Fast Catalina



These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #2 FAST CATALINA has improved with each passing start, and definitely appreciated the recent dropdown when doing ( what we feel ) one of the toughest things for an animal to do -- run 2nd throughout. According to DRF Formulator, over the last 60 months & 1 day, Sano is a sweet 18:9-4-1 with locally based maiden claimers in dirt sprints who were 1-2-3 < 51 days ago @ less than 3-1 ( 3YO's ). The ROI for that sampling is $2.34, and there's a sub category of 2-2 with Looie in the irons. #6 PANAREA has hit the board in all three local attempts and makes her third start off a hiatus here. #8 SEAMIALAUGH gets blinkers, a drop in class, and slides to the outside for the followup to an unproductive bow, and should only improve. 


Race  5

1.Tale of Success

2.Go for Mo

3.Twirling Wind

#7 TALE OF SUCCESS has lost ground from the quarter pole to the lane over her last quartet, and although this one goes "long on the lawn" for the 1st time, we've always been fond of fading sprinters doing such. Sire won her only turf attempt, and as there is no true routing speed signed on, we'll pin our hopes to w wire job here at a big numbah. #3 GO FOR MO overcame some trouble to win at this trip "Nordes de Lignes" on 9/22, and the place/show horses from that maiden breaker got their photos taken net time out, and we'd be remiss in underestimating this one's chances. #10 TWIRLING WIND needs to step up her game big time in order to make an impression vs. these, but is very well bred for this deal, and Matz does okay with returnees of this sort.  OFF TURF: 1-15(MTO)-2-6-16(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 16(MTO)-13(MTO)-6.


Race  6 

1.Ricki Ticki Taffi

2.With Verve


#1 RICKI TICKI TAFFI is aggressively spotted in the first start after a claim from a trainer who's been performing "miracles", but this one outran his odds in an identical spot on the 4th of January, and pre-claim/pre-layoff jockey comes back, which is something we like to see. Note that the lone start from a 1-2 slot produced a win. #2 WITH VERVE is 4 for 5 with Edgar aboard on a glib surface and has been freshened up for this. Aside from the recent disaster, #6 OURNATIONONPARADE has a decent overall body of work and should be left in the hopper. 


Race  7


2.Forever Mo

3.Go Poke the Bear

#3 ALMASHRIQ is transferred back to the sod in today's first start for The Toddster, and although the turf outings have done little to get the pulse racing thus far, they were all on straightaways, and the $1.2 million War Front out of a Bernardini mare finished 2nd of 16 ( toting 134 ) in the lone 2X try ( without Lasix ) and should sit this trip. #11 FOREVER MO was a gamely runner up when facing what we felt was a tougher allotment four dozen days back, and gets an appreciable jockey change to Zayas. #9 GO POKE THE BEAR gets some class relief and has partaken in the triple in four consecutive outside of stakes company.  OFF TURF: 6-2-11-7-5(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 4:33 P.M. THURSDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 11-2-3.


Race  8 

1.Golden Candy 


3.Cajun Brother

#3 GOLDEN CANDY has been in the money in all his dirt starts but one, ( two of those were right here ), and comes in today off a lifetime best numero. Slim margin in a tight affair. #1 EXTRAORDINARY was given two months off after the maiden breaker and is an obvious player if able to get back to the figure earned that day. #4 CAJUN BROTHER has found the line first in both starts to his working life, and as there was a "2nd best of 9" breeze before the first score, and a bullet before the next, we're assuaged by the fact that this one is toting along a crisp morning move since the last for today's attempted threepeat. 


Race  9 

1.Great Sister Dane 

2.Noor Sahara ( Ire )


#6 GREAT SISTER DANE has a touch of back class, owns a 1 for 3 mark off the bench, and is three of eight at Hallandale Beach. Meekest of selections in a race where we were unable to eliminate anyone with our first draft. #1 NOOR SAHARA (IRE) disappointed when last seen in the land of grapes and snails, but makes her North American overture today, and like so many of the Euro shippers, gets a reduction in weights and the wonder drug. Four year old got her photograph taken in her only turf start off a L/O, and it was ( aside from the aforementioned heat ) her lone try making a left hand turn. #2 JAKARTA is on a 6:4-2-0 run, and that includes a tally in the initial turf spin. Stretches out for the first time, but we'll chunk in.  OFF TURF: 7-2-3(MTO)-5-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:23, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING FAST, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 11-6-7.


Race  10

1.Liza Star

2.Two Sixty

3.J P's Delight

#1 LIZA STAR is such a fun horse to root for. Six year old makes her 30th start this afternoon, and it's difficult to argue with the lifetime ledger of 10-2-4, no ? Gal handles herself honestly enough when beginning from the inside slot, and has proven to be a great claim from a year ago. #4 TWO SIXTY ( who went for exactly that amount in Ocala ) is a bit of an in and outer, but comes in off of her first respite, and is 2 fer 2 over a local fast track where the rider stayed aboard. #9 J P'S DELIGHT is four for six lifetime, with the only blemishes coming in a G2 & a race where she was compelled to duke it out down on the inside through sizzling fractions; deserves another shot with the perfect draw. 


Race  11

1.Siesta Moon

2.Storm the Bridge 

3.Captain Yenner

We have three sets of solid DRF Formulator statistics for today's nitecap, so let's get to 'em directly. #6 SIESTA MOON: 16% shotcaller is a whopping 5 for 9 with GP based maiden claiming dirt stock in the 51-191 day bracket at 8-1 or less ( $5, $6, $7, $13 & $7 ). #10 STORM THE BRIDGE: Chricthon ( 16% on the norm ) is 4-15 w. mdclm. dirt dashers who crashed the party less than three fortnights back & are 6-1 or undah today. #9 CAPTAIN YENNER: Barboza 19:7-3-3-3 with Gulfstream runners of this type at 26-1 or lower ridden by Jaramillo ( 41 days or beneath ).  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 12:53, WE ARE AMENDING OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-10-6.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      38-274     ( $505.90 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %     94-274   ( 34.3% )(As of Saturday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout