SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/17



I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/17


Race  1

1.Follow Me Mom

2.Golden Tap

3.Queen Abarrio

#9 FOLLOW ME MOM more than outran her mutuel offering when finishing 3rd two starts back at 49-1, but gave up the ghost a little bit more readily when facing open platers two fortnights later, and now finds herself back at the N2L level, and may perk up for Fanny. #6 GOLDEN TAP showed a bit of improvement when dropping for the third straight time on May the 3rd, and chronic nibbler ( 16:1-5-0 on the sod ) appears to be better suited for the "unders". #1 QUEEN ABARRIO has improved over her last troika, and that includes a sharp placing in the initial turf attempt two starts back, coming home in a sizzling 10.70; needs to work out a good trip from today's inside slot.  OFF TURF: 1-9-2-4-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-5-4.


Race  2

1.Nit Pick

2.O Driscoll


#1 NIT PICK was in the rear with the gear first time out, but this one has very poor turf breeding, so let's draw a line through that, shall we? The 366 Tomlinson figure tells us this one should enjoy the surface transition, as does the bullet gate move ten days back. This one is a half to three multiple winning dirt sprinters, and is halved in price by Lilli. #2 O DRISCOLL is an $80,000 auction purchase taking the biggest drop in the game today, and we're encouraged that Emisael sticks around. #9 BAMBINO beat just one home in the most recent, but encountered some trouble that day, and we always like when the pre-claim pilot returns. 


Race  3

1.Inter Miami

2.Like You


Aside from the maiden breaker, #4 INTER MIAMI finds himself at his lowest level to date, and speedster may appreciate today's dropdown. Mildest of selections in a race that's difficult to decipher. #1 LIKE YOU has gone down & up the Beyer ladder in every start to date, and owns a win and a third from as many starts when breaking from the 1-2 slots. It's hard to wax philosophic about #2 PLATO's performance in the goo here a month back, but is an obvious factor if able to get back to the penultimate outing.  NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-2-1.


Race  4 


2.Opus North

3.Voodo Zip

#10 UNRIGHTEOUS will likely be a bit overbet here because of the connections & the ambitious Tampa Bay Derby on the resume', but we'll lean his way for the initial turf spin. Not a lot of green in the family tree, but daddy won a Grade One in his only start on synthetic, and the maternal granddam closed out the exacta in her lone try over the blades. #1 OPUS NORTH has been beset by back to back layoff lines after his last two outings, but the first triad on the gramma were honest enough, and would be a threat if able to get back to those; leaving beneath because of the Nordic Maragh ( 7 for his last 188 ). #4 VOODO ZIP has yet to miss a triple and most definitely deserves your respect.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3-10-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-9-8.


Race  5

1.That's All He Wrote


3.Dazzling Prose

#6 THAT'S ALL HE WROTE undergoes a few changes today ( layoff, new pilot. lack of macadamias, and a drop to an all time low ), and would only need to find one or two of those palatable to cause a ruckus in this weak allotment. #8 DARDANALLOS was 3rd of 9 in a strung out field during a monsoon here at the end of April, and has partaken in the superfecta in all four starts this annum. Would benefit with a little pace to cut into. #4 DAZZLING PROSE completed the triple in his lone "second off the L/O" scenario, and that 15:0-7-3 career mark at the dx. is screaming "unders". 


Race  6 


2.Isla Road


#1 GLAM displayed absolutely nada in the Oldsmar comebacker, but mare has won once in two 2nd off the shelf starts, and has a collective 5:1-1-2-1 boxscore when available for purchase. In a bit of a bizarre anomaly, Sweezey charge has been alternating losses and wins over her last nine calls to the post ( dating back more than a year and a half ), so today should be a tally, right? If only it were all so simple. Price play in a competitive optional event. #4 ISLA ROAD has faced some salty critters and completed the exacta in similar L/O spot. Reunited with Jaramillo, who piloted this one to a game runner up finish at Calder back in the fall. #7 KATIELEIGH was hiked up in class after the nose win on the 1st of March, and put forth a solid effort that day at 15-1. 4YO totes the lightest impost of her working life now, and they'll have to grab her by the tail to get the glory.  OFF TURF: 3-8-6MTO)-4-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-8-3.


Race  7

1.Green Mansions



#1 GREEN MANSIONS ( cross entered yesterday so check the changes ) hasn't been seen in a bit over four months, but is 5:1-3-1 off a break in the action, and has been working steadily and solidly for today's return to action. Tepid selection. #3 QUENANE ( also in yesterday's entries ) owns a lovely "declining" mark at the dist. ( 28:10-7-3 ) and drops 80 oz. today in pursuit of the grand slam. Feel free to put an upwards arrow next to the #6 SQUEEZADIOS, as this one has improved in the speed figure dept. over the last troika, and really digs the local palm trees as well ( 15:3-6-3 ). Gelding is displaying a baby "Z" pattern in the 4/25 deal and should be coming late. 


Race  8 

1.Musical Start

2.Prince of Arabia

3.Rijeka ( Ire )

#6 MUSICAL START has been in the rear with the gear in his three trips to the frontside this year, but let's not judge to harshly -- chestnut chap began awkwardly in one, was overmatched in another, and was extremely wide when losing by just a length & a half in the other. Decent longshot jockey grabs the reins now, and his one just may surprise at big odds. #1 PRINCE OF ARABIA has a boatload of back class, recently finished third directly behind a next out winner, and also rounded out the tri in his lone start when beginning from the innermost slot; logical .#8 RIJEKA (IRE) is 1 for 4 when in for a tag.  OFF TURF: 1-8-3-5-7  NOTE: AS OF 4:09, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-6-1.


Race  9 

1.Eye of a Jedi

2.You're to Blame

3.Big Dollar Bill

#2 EYE OF A JEDI was 17 lengths back at the beginning of the Hal's Hope, but had an awful onset that day and gets a touch of relief here. Will be overlooked by many because of the recent running lines, but we'll bite in hopes of a rebound with a tidier beginning. #7 YOU'RE TO BLAME owns a 3:1-1-1 record in second off the bench spots and has won two of four over this oval. #4 BIG DOLLAR BILL has been a part of the exacta in three of four at this locale and is as good as any for the show dough. 


Race  10


2.La Australiana

3.Bramble Queen 

#11 ZARINA was a well beaten but decently clear runner up in an off the turf event right here about a month back, and although the prior turf jammie left a lot to be desired, that one was off an extended hibernation, and filly rates a big shot if able to recover the form shown in the last three 2019 efforts. #10 LA AUSTRALIANA is once again paired paired up with Reyes, who guided her to the winner's circle at CAL last October, and this one has a win & a showing from her last three starts outside of stakes company. #8 BRAMBLE QUEEN has a win & a placing in her lone turf deals with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump, is 3 for 8 at this distance ( 4 for 16 otherwise ), and got her photograph taken in her lone "2nd off the absence" spin.  OFF TURF: 12-4-3-6-9  NOTE: AS OF 5:19 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  11

1.Bye Bye Nicky

2.Stormy Nelly

3.Miss Miami

#10 BYE BYE NICKY won her only try off a L/O, and is back with Dermot Magner now, who did some decent work with this one in 2019. Will need to utilize her zippiness to get over from the 10 hole. #3 STORMY NELLY has gotten the job done in two straight, three of five, and the runner up from the recent score git the job done in her followup engagement. Hat trick well within reach beneath a familiar jock. #11 MISS MIAMI is 2 of 4 at G.P., has yet to miss a superfecta, and wraps up the week for us here.  OFF TURF: 9-11-2-6-8(MTO)

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      38-285     ( $505.90 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %     99-285   ( 34.7% )(As of Sunday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout