SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/21
  
  

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Just one winner on what was mostly a washout of a day Sunday. 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Gulfstream - 5/21

 

Race  1

1.Two Cent Tootsie

2.Come Storming

3.La Babia

#3 TWO CENT TOOTSIE improved by about 10% in the speed figure department in her lone "2nd off the L/O" try, and as this one posted an adjusted Beyer of 62.6 in the most recent try, any improvement on that would put this one right in the thick of things. #8 COME STORMING put forth a solid effort in her first try off an elongated absence, and four year old gets an upgrade in the jockey department this afternoon. Chance for improvement with that under her belt. #6 LA BABIA has improved with each & every start, and sheds 32 ounces off the nice try at 26-1, but we'll leave underneath as Bravo has been chilly for quite some time.  OFF TURF: 10-2-3-1-11  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-6-4.

 

Race  2

1.Danessa Lady

2.Whistler Dixie

3.Bonheur

#9 DANESSA LADY is the first foal out of a lightly raced ( 1 for 2 ) dam, but the sire was 4:2-1-0-1 on the lawn, and aside from drawing well, this February foal has a bit of a maturity edge over just about the entire allotment. Slim margin in a race with no first draft eliminations. #4 WHISTLER DIXIE has a decent gate move on the docket for today's bow, and this one is a half to a two for six turf sprinter who banked 31 large. #7 BONHEUR is decently bred for this deal, but went for about half the stud fee at auction, so take a looksie at this one during the warmups ( as tough as that may be these days ).  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-3(MTO)-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-8-6.

 

Race  3

1.False Accusation

2.Doctor D J 

3.Third Army

#6 FALSE ACCUSATION is 5:1-1-2 when going green to brown ( 32:1-4-5 otherwise ), and although this one is a nibbler by rote, we'll pin our hopes to a rebound at a price. #9 DOCTOR D J put forth an honest showing at this level last time out, and owns a win and a placing from as many 1X to 2X attempts. 4:0-1-2 ledger at Hallandale Beach adds to the flavor as well. #1 THIRD ARMY ( Patton's former unit https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_Army_Central ) completed the exacta in his lone try when beginning from the pine, and finds himself at his lowest level to date.   NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO TWO KEY SCRATCHES, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-9-3.

 

Race  4 

1.Into Fancy

2.Dinner at Five

3.Saucy Tune

#2 INTO FANCY was in the rear with the gear when starting things out 39 days back, but is confidently hiked up in class for the first start off the claim, and 9% trainer enlists the services of a rider that he's had some success with. Over the last 60 months, DRF Formulator tells us that 13% Berrios clicks at a whopping 29% rate for his outfit when on this turf at 25-1 or less, and the ROI is a sensational $3.96 ! #6 DINNER AT FIVE makes her 3rd start off the bench today, and was an honest third in her only T to D spin. #8 SAUCY TUNE has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but now has the "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the 1st time and gets in light.  OFF TURF: 2-5-1-6-9

 

Race  5

1.Big Spender

2.Bolt

3.Alaskan

#4 BIG SPENDER has shown improvement over his recent troika, and after being claimed for 16G 33 days in the rear, can be all yours for $6,250 now. Even with a win & a claim, Mr. Calabrese stands to lose about $3,000 on the whole deal, so you'd have to assume this one will be "all systems go". #7 BOLT has switched barns since the most recent, but new bossman -- 16% on the norm -- is 26:7-4-5 with GP based dirt dashers at 38-1 or less ( < 45 days ) with a return on investment of $2.94. #2 ALASKAN has been freshened up since the maiden breaker, and pre-layoff Ortiz comes back.  NOTE: DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Indirectly

2.Lucidus

3.Farm Strong

#4 INDIRECTLY is very poorly bred for a wet track, but outran that pedigree by far when besting half the field at 11-1 in losing by a bit over two. If you were inclined to prorate that to this one's best turf number, then what you'd come up with is an adj. 59.6 -- at a substantially higher level ). Jockey/Trainer combo have paired well together. #5 LUCIDUS has had some breaks in the worktab for today's overture ( "Overture, curtains, lights !!" ), but a couple of the morning works were crisp, and late bloomer may surprise a bit. #8 FARM STRONG has shown stark improvement since getting on the blades, and gets in with a feather.  OFF TURF: 6-10-2-1-3  NOTE: AS OF 12:11, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACk. WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-4-3.

 

Race  7

1.Star Juancho

2.Ray'swarrior

3.Dr Harlan

We won't be delving any deeper than our top two for all the rolling action. #3 STAR JUANCHO hasn't been seen in nearly three months, but five year old "horse" ( You hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) is showing a couple of fine workouts up at Palm Meadows for the return, and barn has won with three of their last five starters. #7 RAY'SWARRIOR is an extremely game sort who has hit the board in 7 of 8 right here, and that includes a recent placing directly in front of a next out winner. #6 DR HARLAN is 5 of 12 at this trip, compared to being 1-20 going other distances of ground, and that's reason enough to include in this spot. 

 

Race  8 

1.Lilo's Call ( AE )

2.I'll Do It My Way

3.Rosa Star

#13 LILO'S CALL (AE) needs one to get out in order to get in, but showed some decent early hoof at 35-1 in her only turf attempt, and is up for sale for the first time here; price play. #1 I'LL DO IT MY WAY has been overlooked parimutually over the last triad ( 17-1, 43-1 & 19-1 ) and has outperformed those expectations in each, with a win & two showings. Impossible to leave out on the dropdown to conditional foes. #3 ROSA STAR isn't a big fan of the winner's circle, but the 22:1-7-6 turf mark is enough reason for us to include.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-7-4-5-10  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING EUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 11-13-4.

 

Race  9 

1.Cool Arrow

2.Jaguar Poz

3.Mi Tres Por Ciento ( Chi )

We don't really have a great read on this race, so tread lightly... #6 COOL ARROW hasn't been seen since the purchase 3 1/2 months ago, but is 7:3-2-0 off a hiatus, and won his only start at the trip; always been fond of those with this one's type of "declining" record. #3 JAGUAR POZ has won both starts at the dx., and has missed the board but once over a glib surface. #8 MI TRES POR CIENTO (CHI) has won much more than three percent of his outings, as the 39:11-7-5 career ledger belies, and took to American soil just fine for the first time on April 17th, and we see no reason to exclude. 

 

Race  10

1.King of Leinster ( Ire )

2.Bodie Cody

3.Storm Risk

#3 KING OF LEINSTER (IRE) is a steady if unspectacular sort, who may perk up a bit with today's slight drop in class. Timid selection. #7 BODIE CODY closed out the triple at 28-1 in his only brown to green deal, & has partaken in the tri in 7 of 9 @ the trip; could spice things up a bit in a very uninspiring finale. #9 STORM RISK has never seen these depths, and although he's beaten home just three in his duet of starts vs. winners, we like that the numbers earned essentially replicated that of the maiden breaker, as sometimes animals can regress from a Beyer aspect after getting the diploma.  OFF TURF: 3-4-16(MTO)-15(AE)-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:41, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 12-6-4.

 

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      39-296     ( $517.30 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %     103-296   ( 34.7% )(As of Thurs. morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-:   -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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