SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/22


Just one chalky winner on a day laden with the stuff ( six of 'em ), but we were soothed by a $134 Exacta Box & a $195 Rolling Double.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #6 Jaxon's Goldie


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Gulfstream - 5/22


Race  1


2.Wicked Mercury


#1 UNFORESEEN was a bit rank in the most recent, but still completed the super at 9-1, while hanging up a nice adjusted numero in the process. Gal slides all the way into the wood this afternoon, and is in receipt of a jockey upgrade as well. You can feel free to draw a line through the most recent of the #7 WICKED MERCURY, as the three year old encountered a boatload of trouble that afternoon. The quartet of outings just prior to that were honest enough, and Irad gets legged up for the first time. #3 GLORIOUSLY has partaken in the superfecta in her last troika, and goes from an apprentice to Saez in this opener.  OFF TURF: 9-13(MTO)-3-1-5  NOTE: AS OF 11:57, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-8-12. 


Race  2


2.Give Me Two Steps

3.Fitz's Mo

#2 TESTIFIED has done zilch to get the pulse racing thus far, but tries the gramma for the first time ( the first of two foals to do such ), but daddy was 12:3-6-0 over firm ground, his daddy was a turf champion, the paternal granddam was 7:2-2-1 on the sod, and mommy was 1-6 over the stuff. We'll take a shot at a price. #8 GIVE ME TWO STEPS is another who's done nothing in the afternoon, but teh sire completed the exacta in his lone turf try, while going 6:4-1-0 over the carpet fibers, which we feel translates to the grass nicely. Additionally, the paternal grandsire was 1 fer 2 on the lawn, and the maternal grandpappy was 4:2-2-0 on firm going. #1 FITZ'S MO doesn't have much green in the family tree, but the maternal side grandfather was 3:1-0-1 on the verde, and we'll chunk in for 3rd.  OFF TURF: 3-13(MTO)-12(AE)-6-1  NOTE: AS OF 12:01, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS to 8-2-1.


Race  3


2.Got the Gist


#2 BIMINI is one for three at the trip & finds herself at her lowest level to date. Meek choice in a passable race. #1 GOT THE GIST is one for two in "2nd off the layoff" tries, and that score came in this one's only attempt when beginning from the pine. Lightly raced six year old is lured to ride by the latest "miracle trainer", for today's drop to an all time low. #4 COUNTENANCE owns a 4:1-1-1 ledger when returning off an absence, and owns that exact same mark at Hallandale Beach.


Race  4 

1.Grand Nenuco


3.Cowboy Culture

#1 GRAND NENUCO hasn't been seen since All Hallows Eve Eve, but has a 3-1-0 mark in his last quartet when available for purchase, owns a nice "declining" 8:3-2-1 boxscore at the trip, and is 5:1-0-2-1 when returning off a break on the sod. Gelding is but a neck shy of a two fer three record when loading first, and is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #3 TOSS is anything but here, as chestnut chap has cashed checks in five of his last six turf tries, but we'll leave beneath, as Maragh is on what's approaching a 7 for 200 streak. #4 COWBOY CULTURE was last seen running for Navarro, but he he'll be having a lot of time on his hands for a while, so The Toddster takes over, and instantly halves this one in price.  OFF TURF: 4-1-12-10-13(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:05, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, THE #16 WILL BE OUR 3RD CHOICE.


Race  5


2.Union Line

3.Tapi Frost

#4 TAAMER swings over to the dirt for the first time here, and is a bit better bred for it than the turf she's been toiling on this year. Despite the poor efforts in 2020, this one may appreciate the cut back to one turn, if the dash from a year ago is any indicator. Slimmest of margins in a heat where we were only able to eliminate one with our first draft. #7 UNION LINE split the field at first asking, and the 392 Tomlinson figure for the dist. tells us there's some room for improvement. #6 TAPI FROST has hit the board in four of six over a glib surface and is in for a quarter today. 


Race  6 


2.Concorde's Dream

3.Dream d'Oro

#8 LHOTSE is a homebred beginning his working life today, and does such with a couple of decent works in tow. The turf pedigree is still essentially unproven at this point, but the maternal grandsire was 4:0-0-1-2 going over the blades ( with the lone stinker being in a Grade 2 event ), and we'll bite in a wide open deal. #5 CONCORDE'S DREAM was a bit wide in the initial foray, but drops a couple'a pegs and has eye cups added. #9 DREAM D'ORO goes from brown to green for the first time, and is 2nd time blinks today.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-6-9-2-12  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 JAXON'S GOLDIE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism? 


Race  7

1.Charge Account


3.Beast of Wildwood

We don't really have a good feel for this deal, so be careful.  #8 CHARGE ACCOUNT was eased in the comebacker, but is two of two over a local fast track, and one of those wins came from an outsidish slot. Puncher's chance if able to catch a flyer. #7 KIMURA has been over her head on more than one occasion, but got her Polaroid taken both times he was at a class level of 25K or less, but demand value with the frigid pilot aboard. #5 BEAST OF WILDWOOD ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) makes her 2nd start off the shelf here and is 3:1-0-1 going over a fast surface. 


Race  8 

1.Play That Tone

2.Ms. Headley

3.My Masterpiece. 

#3 PLAY THAT TONE has shown a bit of improvement over her last quartet, and in the most recent start, gained two lengths from the top of the stretch to the line after losing a length from the half to the lane. Meeeeeeeeeeekest of selections in a race that's hard to hug. #6 MS. HEADLY went coast to coast like buttah and toast the only time he was in a layoff scenario akin to today's, and like many runners on today's card, finds herself at an uncharted depth. #2 MY MASTERPIECE overcame some difficulty to get up in time in her only "brown to green" start, and is a crisp 2 for 6 @ this dx., in comparison to owning a woeful oh-fer-16 mark at other distances of ground.  OFF TURF: 5-7-8-1-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Jay's Way

2.Roman Empire

3.Lagoon Macaroon

#4 JAY'S WAY barely strolled across the finish line when last seen in the Sunshine Millions Classic, and it's sad to see this seven year old warrior in for 16 large today, but what do we doe? Most of the times we'll toss a runner like this, but this chap ( who tangled with the likes of Mohaymen way back when ) has to be left in the mix versus these, and who are we to doubt Gargan's "miraculous" touch. We'll nibble at 10-1, but without a solid effort, here's hoping they do the right thing afterwards. #3 ROMAN EMPIRE had no palpable excuse for the recent disappointment, but won by a bunch in his only other loading at this locale, and Irad gets legged up. #7 LAGOON MACAROON closed out the tri in his lone start off a break & crossed the line first when last to load a year and a half ago, so we'll chunk in at 15-1.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-5-8.


Race  10

1.Dillon Rocks

2.Sir Hoski


These three and no more for all our rolling action in today's nitecap.  #2 DILLON ROCKS drops in class after a fair showing behind a next out winner three fortnights ago, and Cibelli is backed by a sweet DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 260 weeks, this 18% shotcaller is 22:9-3-4 with locally based mid level turf stayers in the 22-65 day range at 6-1 or lower ( $3.36 ROI ). #5 SIR HOSKI didn't appreciate the recent step up the ladder, but is now back BELOW the level of the three ITM finishes just prior to that. This one should be nowhere near the 20-1 M.L. offering. #1 YOUSHOULDBESOLUCKY closes things out.  OFF TURF: 5-1-2-10-4


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      40-306     ( $520.90 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-14  ( 7.1% )    Favorites Win %   109-306   ( 34.7% )(As of Friday morning) 

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-:   -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout