SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/23


One was the loneliest number for us here yesterday.

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #8 Projected ( As of 11:58, this is not a Beatable Favorite )


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Gulfstream - 5/23


Race  1

1.Cardiac Kid


3.Laska ( AE )

#2 CARDIAC KID is a $230,000 progeny of American Pharoah who hasn't quite panned out yet, but colt was a lively runner up in this race 23 days back, and makes his third start off a layoff this afternoon. Only facing a few others with a legitimate shot here, so we're expecting a solid effort. #1 OXBURGER ( "How's it going, Eisenhower?" ) put forth an honest showing in his lone try off an absence ( Adj. 76.8 against tougher ), and gets a break in the weights with a decent bug assigned. #14 LASKA (AE) needs a couple to get the sniffles in order to make it over to the races today, but should that come to fruition, will be bringing along a few decent running lines, as well as an addition of blinkers.  OFF TURF: 5-1-6-7-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Macho d'Oro

2.Money House

3.Wilshire Diamond

#2 MACHO D'ORO returned off a three month sabbatical to nearly blow up the totalizator board right here on the 1st, completing the exacta at 53-1. Gelding gets an upgrade in the jockey department now, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding, at what still may be a solid mutuel offering. #3 MONEY HOUSE was an honest 3rd vs. slightly tougher over this oval two fortnights back, ( marking his second ITM finish from as many dirt tries ) and should be left in the mix once again. #4 WILSHIRE DIMOND has had some grisly running lines of late, but has been transferred over to an appreciably better clan since the most recent, and gets a top local pilot as well. 


Race  3

1.Lady Noy

2.Smitten for Smitty

3.My Sister's Keeper

#7 LADY NOY gave a solid showing in her lone dirt attempt, and is reunited with the pilot from her only score; may perk up with the surface transition. #4 SMITTEN FOR SMITTY has partaken in the superfecta in all three starts to date, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot. #1 MY SISTER'S KEEPER lost by less than a length on her only "second off the L/O" spin, and may have needed the last up at Oldsmar.  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-2-1.


Race  4 

1.Witch Hunter


3.Upsy Daisy Do

These three and no more for all our rolling action. #10 WITCH HUNTER immolated baccala when a well clear runner up at 1-5 on April the 11th, and was claimed off of one trainer who has performed "miracles" by another that day. Filly draws the outside for the first time now, and Zayas gets the nod. FWIW, there's a tiny but tight DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Barboza is 3 of 7 with first off the snag local dirt dashers who crashed the fiesta 36-50 days back & are < 7-1. #4 ZANDREA'S has done little to get the pulse racing so far, but finds herself at her lowest level to date, and may wake up in today's initial start on the sand. #2 UPSY DAISY DO was a lively and decently clear runner up on 5/3, and has been a jealous bridesmaid in five of ten starts on a glib surface. 


Race  5

1.Discreet Heat



Another heat where our triple selections should suffice.  #1 DISCREET HEAT is about 5.2% better on the green than the brown, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the decent last race figaro. Six yr. old owns a crisp 7:2-3-1-1 ledger when beginning from the innermost three slots, ( which we always pay heed to, as some animals prefer running while covered up ), and loses seven pounds off a two length defeat. #2 THEMANBEHINDTHEMAN ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) hasn't shown anything in about a year now, but is two fer six at GP and has never seen these depths. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #8 PROJECTED comes in today off a win versus similar up north, and gutsy eight year old has been 1-2 in 20 of 34 lifetime outings.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-9-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION WITH NO BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  6 

1.My First Grammy

2.Man of Honor

3.Fast Magic

#5 MY FIRST GRAMMY showed absolutely nada in his first start back in the maiden ranks after chasing Tiz the Law in the Florida Derby, but there's no scary drop for this one, as he's now under the tutelage of Mejia. Aformentioned shotcaller was perennially a LOW single digit trainer, but has won with 6 of his last 18 ( hmmmmm... ) at Hallandale Beach ( 25-1 or less ), and just look at these prices: $27, $12, $25, $16, $28 & $51 !! Wouldn't be surprised to see some vast improvement here. #1 MAN OF HONOR has been freshened up a bit since the flop down in the Bayou, and has been performing admirably in the A.M.'s for today's comebacker. #9 FAST MAGIC was claimed for 50K last out, and is protected against such happening again with today's placement in the maiden special weight ranks. Chestnut chap sheds a whopping nine lb.'s off a nice showing & draws well.   NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7

1.Surprise Factor


3.Public Safety

#5 SURPRISE FACTOR hasn't been seen since the maiden breaker at Calder last November, and as they don't give too many vacations in this business, apparently something went awry that day, or shortly thereafter. Pre layoff jock comes back -- which is always encouraging -- and it's interesting to see the new shotcaller remove the blinks after win. #2 FACTORINO was rank before the gates opened, and got smacked around after being sent off in the April 24th heat, effectively losing all hope. Grey guy has some nice running lines in just about all the starts going short prior to that, and deserves a chance to make amends. #1 PUBLIC SAFETY hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but has a win and a placing from his triad of outings and is up for grabs for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 5:55 P.M. THURSDAY, THE #1 WILL BE OUR TOP SELECTION.


Race  8 

1.Graydar's Resolve

2.Bold Paynter


Very competitive affair here.  #4 GRAYDAR'S RESOLVE is showing some trouble lines in his 2020 engagements, but has outran his odds in each of them, while posting honest Beyers in the last two. May be ignored at the windows ( or rather, online ) in this spot, but could shock with some pace to cut into. #8 BOLD PAYNTER is a steady if unspectacular sort who drops for the 2nd time in his last three calls to the post and is another who could upset the apple cart at double digit odds. #9 VOLUBILE bested slightly weaker 32 days in the rear, and loses 96 ounces off that victory -- something we always dig.  OFF TURF: 6-9-7-8-10


Race  9 

1.Malibu Max

2.Front Loaded

3.Storm Advisory

#1 MALIBU MAX has partaken in the triple in four of five "off the shelf" jammies, owns a win & a placing from as many starts when first to load, and seven year old "horse" ( You keep hiding from that vet, Maxy boy ! ) finds himself at his lowest level thus far in his first trip to the gate for The Toddster. #7 FRONT LOADED was a dead game and daylight clear runner up in a near identical spot a bakers' dozen days back, and should be right there once again. #2 STORM ADVISORY is an old warhorse making his 66th trip to the frontside today, and fella has faced some salty critters during that time. Eight year old is 1 for 3 when going T to D, and has done fine work at this distance ( 10:3-4-1 ).   NOTE: AS OF 12:06, DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 4-7-6.  NOTE: AS OF 4:37, WE ARE CHANGING OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-1-4.


Race  10

1.Frenchmen Street

2.Mai Ty One On

3.Fully Loaded

After a solid runner up finish in his first start after the Maker claim, #1 FRENCHMEN STREET got smacked around a bit in the followup, and can reverse course in this spot with a reduction to the lightest impost of his career. Note the fine mark at this dx. ( 10:2-3-3 ). #3 MAI TY ONE ON had to jam on the brakes when going 2X last out, but this one had a couple of sharp efforts just prior to that, and got his photograph taken the only time he went from two turns to one. Two of three returnees from the most recent, found the line first in their followups, but we'll leave this one beneath as Bravo has been extremely cold of late. #4 FULLY LOADED bested Florida breds on the 5th of April, and as they don't have N2X for state breds here ( that we've seen ), this one is compelled to dive into open waters today. Not hopeless.  OFF TURF: 7-4-8(MTO)-5-3


Race  11

1.Admiral's Win


3.Sweet Story

#5 ADMIRAL'S WIN is 2 for 4 off an absence ( 2-24 otherwise ), and has won her last duet with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. Extremely zippy workouts always a positive sign for a runner who likes to come from off the pace. #6 DYNATOWN hasn't been in action since turkey time, but finished the '19 season with five consecutive ITM finishes and is a threat if able to get back to that form. #7 SWEET STORY has done her best work at this trip & over this strip. We actually consider open 12.5K claimers to today's condition somewhat of a drop in class, so don't be surprised to see a goodie coming from this corner.  OFF TURF: 15(MTO)-2-5-14(AE)-4

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      41-316     ( $524.30 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-15  ( 6.7% )    Favorites Win %   114-316   ( 34.7% )(As of Sat. morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout