SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/25 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless all our fallen heroes


Have a FUN day everyone !! 

Just a reminder, for today's selections & analysis of the Shoemaker Mile and Gamely from Santa Anita, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #7 Preacher Marsee


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Gulfstream - 5/25 - Happy Memorial Day - God Bless all our fallen heroes


Race  1

1.La Guatemalteca


3.Gravel Gertie

Despite going wide turning for home in the lone turf try, #3 LA GUATEMALTECA displayed a nice little "Z" pattern that day, losing 5 3/4 lengths from the quarter to the half before re-gaining 4 1/4 from that point to the line. Five year old has a maturity advantage over several signed on, and the pedigree tells us to give her another shot. #1 SPENCE displayed little in the bow, but as so often happens with the youngsters, was sent to the sidelines for one reason or another ( bucked shins, greenness, whatever ). Biggest drop in the game is employed and leading Tampa rider makes the southern sojourn. #10 GRAVEL GERTIE gets in light and finds herself at her lowest level to date.  OFF TURF: 8-1-9-5-12  NOTE: AS OF 11:38, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-6-8.


Race  2

1.Shes One Mad Momma

2.My Sebastiana

3.Money Factor

#2 SHES ONE MAD MOMMA sheds weight, class, and distance this afternoon. Enough speed to be a danger. Mild choice. #4 MY SEBASTIANA is about a 20% better runner on a fast track than a wet one, so right off the bat, you can feel free to upgrade the recent accordingly. Filly has done her best work over this oval and finds herself at her lowest level to date. Mild choice. #5 MONEY FACTOR completes our troika of selections on the dropdown today, and also goes over a glib surface for the first time in this spot; upgrade in the jockey department duly noted.  NOTE: AS OF 11:42, THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3


2.Spinning Kitten

3.Ole Mole

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #12 NOTSOSUBTLE hasn't put forth much of an effort since returning off more than a year and a half hibernation, but Jaramillo is enticed to stick around for today's 3rd off the layoff engagement. Figures from a Beyer perspective, but will have to hustle from this outside slot. #3 SPINNING KITTEN encountered a bit of trouble in a near identical spot 46 days back, but lost by only a neck that day and is an obvious threat once again. #2 OLE MOLE slides down the ladder a bit and may perk up a bit.  OFF TURF: 9-6-11-12-13  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 PREACHER MARSEE doesn't nake our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?  NOTE: AS OF 11:46, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-1-12.


Race  4 

1.Yellow Brick Road



#3 YELLOW BRICK ROAD burned some baccala in the 2019 overture, but there's no scary drop for this $230,000 auction purchase, and the bullet workout up at Palm Meadows on April 29th signals readiness. #2 INVALUABLE is a 50K Keeneland sale who was claimed for that precise amount first time out, and the debut was a goodie. Chestnut gal was shut off at the start, and overcame that to complete the triple at 7-1, and is now protected against another purchase. Blinkers added, but we're leaving beneath as Bravo is clicking at just 6% for the year. #6 GIBBERISH has done well in both dirt starts to date, and has followed off a bullet since the recent disappointment. Emisael takes the reins for the first time.  NOTE: AS OF 11:50, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-4-7.


Race  5

1.Joyful Heart

2.Vegas Kitten

3.Big Agenda

#4 JOYFUL HEART got up in time to best slightly weaker right here on 4/16, and we love the change in tactics displayed from the prior three outings. Grey gelding figures once again, in taking the obligatory hike in class. #2 VEGAS KITTEN was a lively and well clear runner up versus similar type a month ago, and was re-claimed by Casse that day. Grab him by the tail to get the glory. #10 BIG AGENDA has a nice collection of recent figaros and gets some class relief in this spot.  OFF TURF: 9-2-4-6-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:54, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-7-6.  NOTE: AS OF 12:29, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Chill Haze

2.Fast Magic

3.Irish Paul

#7 CHILL HAZE has hit the board in his last three trips to the frontside, and comes in today backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, Saffie has performed "miracles" with maiden claiming 3YO dirt males who hit the board less than 50 days ago, as he's 12:6-3-1 in that regards ( $2.20 return on investment ). Another one switching to Jaramillo. #8 FAST MAGIC ( scratched Saturday for this ) returned off nearly half the length of a calendar to complete the triple right here at the end of April, and was brought back to a different shedrow afterwards for all his effort. New conditioner enlists the services of a decent bug, and this one may appreciate the eight pound reduction in the weight department. #1 IRISH PAUL has been working well for the comebacker and has a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump for the first time.   NOTE: AS OF 11:58, DUE TO THE TRACK BEING WET, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 3-2-1.


Race  7

1.Broadway Cat

2.Hy Dollface

3.Still Alive

#2 BROADWAY CAT hasn't seen the scene since turkey time, but owns a two for five mark at the dx., is entered for an all time low, and rates a timid selection in a race with just one first draft eliminations. #1 HY DOLLFACE is 5:2-1-1-1 when in with a tag...5:0-0-0-0 otherwise; that's reason enough to include in this allotment. #5 STILL ALIVE ("They hit him with five shots and he's still alive. Well that's bad luck for me...and bad luck for you if you don't make that deal." ) switches back to what appears to be her preferred surface today, and despite having bested only five in the last quartet, this seems like a nice spot to get back on track, and we'll toss her beneath.  NOTE: AS OF 12:02, DUE TO A SCRATCH & THE RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 1-3-6.


Race  8 

1.Driven by Thunder

2.My Point Exactly


#3 DRIVEN BY THUNDER has given up the ghost in three straight, but how the hell can you argue with that 7 for 15 Hallandale mark? We can't -- nor can we dispute the fact that he;s won half of his eight starts at the trip, as well as being in for an all time low. Know him early, but have the Pepto handy late. #4 MY POINT EXACTLY has hit the board in six straight and is another who excels at this locale. Will likely be compelled to rate just off our top selection early on, and make a move heading into the second turn. #8 DONJI shoots for the hat trick today, and sheds 7 lb's. off a tally, which is something we always dig.  OFF TURF: 4-2-10-8-6  NOTE: AS OF 12:06, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 11-2-4.


Race  9 

1.On the Turf

2.Grand Moreland

3.Travelin Gambler

#7 ON THE TURF is somewhat of a nibbler by rote ( 11:1-5-1 ), but aside from the last turf route, has partaken in the triple in three of the four outings in the claiming ranks, and is a meeeeeeeeeeek selection in a heat that we don't really have a good feel for. #6 GRAND MORELAND went coast to coast like butter and toast in the lone start off a break in the action, and as Servis has a lot of "time" on his hands these days, will make his return for a bossman who's clicking at  20% rate for the meet. #5 TRAVELIN GAMBLER is back on a fast track today & gets eye cups for the first time. 


Race  10


2.Resident Liberal

3.St Joe Viper

#8 ATTHEPEARLYGATES ( by "Point of Entry", ya get it? ) completed the superfecta in his lone 1XD to 2XT attempt, and we've often had a softness in our heart for fading dirt dashers going long on the lawn, as quite often they get brave -- and at big odds, too. We like Berrios in these spots and will swing away. #9 RESIDENT LIBERAL had a bit of an awkward trip last time out, and is third off the L/O while shedding some poundage; chance to make amends. #5 ST JOE VIPER went all the way a few rungs below this one, and is another one switching to an apprentice.  NOTE: AS OF 12:10, OUR OFF THE TURF SELECTIONS WILL BE 3-10-8.


Race  11

1.Bachelor's Bait



#2 BACHELOR'S BAIT was as flat as a pancake in the return a month and a half ago, but posted an adjusted 65.2 in the maiden breaker last year, and did such without the use of Lasix, which is now a part of the package. We'll give this Matz charge an opportunity to right the ship at a double digit offering. #3 WANDERLUST has regressed since procuring the sheepskin at Tampa Bay Downs back in early February, but has tangled with some salty gals & Torres climbs aboard for the first time. #4 SPARTANKA was overmatched when thrown into the deep end of the pool two months ago, and is back at a more palatable level with these type.  NOTE: AS OF 12:14, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A WET TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 2-6-4.  NOTE: AS OF 5:11, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  12

1.Trixie's Time 

2.True Heiress

3.Majestic Maiara

#6 TRIXIE'S TIME was merely a head behind an insane 43.92 vs. 16K competitors 2 1/2 weeks in the rear, and held on in gutsy fashion for the show dough at 10-1. Should be able to face easier splits with today's step down the ladder, and we believe it's her race to lose. #9 TRUE HEIRESS will be the only one we'll utilize as an exacta saver here, based on the victory over Trixie, after getting smacked around a bit early on. Sliding her into the two spot because the pace aided her cause in the aforementioned win. #3 MAJESTIC MAIARA closes out the extended week for us here.  OFF TURF: 4-7-3-8-6  Remember, wherever you're celebrating this wonderful day from, if you can afford betting our picks, and if you can afford a few beers, you can afford a taxi home !  Be safe, everyone.  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 10-3-1.



Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      44-339     ( $540.30 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-15  ( 6.7% )    Favorites Win %   124-339   ( 36.6% )(As of Monday morning)


Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 



Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout