SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/28 - Closing Week


We finished up the week in fine fashion with on top winners of $12 & $50, an Ice Cold Quinella of $183, an Ice Cold Exacta of $307, and an Ice Cold, $1,453 Triple !!

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #12 Victory Crusade or #13 Nenita ( AE )  Race 5 - #11 Baseline Drive  Race 7 - #10 Uncle Andrew


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Gulfstream - 5/28 - Closing Week


Race  1

1.Midnight Marvel


3.Maries Melody

#5 MIDNIGHT MARVEL has beaten home three in as many starts -- two horses and the chase ambulance. That being said, the figure from the bow ( against significantly tougher competition ) supersedes what many in this race have posted, and not only does this gal find herself at her lowest level to date, but isn't it curious to see Jaramillo hop on? Well...not really when you see Emisael/Lynch are 2 for 3 in tandem with turf runners returning in less than 50 days. #11 BLAZINONBAYOU is another who has never seen these depths and is eligible to improve in today's 2nd off the L/O attempt. #3 MARIES MELODY was a non entity when facing the toughest grouping of her career last time out, but when you compare the adjusted # from that day to others signed on, it makes her a majah playah in that regards. $2,700 auction purchase had been a part of the superfecta in all starts prior to that, and looms a big threat in today's 3rd off the layoff try.  OFF TURF: 2-5-7-1-16(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-12-10.


Race  2

1.Hall Rich Legacy ( AE )

2.Catching Fish

3.H P Big Hope ( AE )

#10 HALL RICH LEGACY (AE) was a bit tardy to the party when breaking from the pine first time out, effectively losing all hope, but three returnees from that deal have gone 1-1-0 in their followup engagements, and this one now has a hood added. We LOVE the "Inside to Outside" move as well -- should a couple of others declare. #7 CATCHING FISH is another having eye cups added for today's return engagement, and sheds 80 ounces as well, with the bug assigned. One more shot w/a slightly better draw. #13 H P BIG HOPE (AE) needs a miracle to draw into the body of the race, but should that happen, this colt from the final crop of fan favorite Effinex will have drawn well in facing a so-so allotment.  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 9-7-3.


Race  3


2.Elite Appeal ( AE )

3.Little Bella

#1 AERODYNAMIC has done very little wrong throughout her brief career, and despite stepping into the land of winners last out, just about replicated the numero from the maiden breaker 5+ weeks prior. The blinks are left in the tack room this afternoon, and filly drops a touch. Should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters. #14 ELITE APPEAL (AE) is on the outside looking in, but nibbler by rote ( 11:1-2-5 on the sod ) brings along successive career best outings. #2 LITTLE BELLA stretches out for the first time, but with El Prado in the family tree, we're not too concerned. Grey gal is a touch light from a speed figure prespective, but you have to respect how she's crashed the party in every start to date.  OFF TURF: 13 (AE)-1-2-14(AE)-12  NOTE: AS OF 12:31, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 4-10-14.


Race  4 

1.Surprise Arrival

2.Fast Fraction


#9 SURPRISE ARRIVAL has been quite disappointing this year, but transitions back to the dirt today, and this one posted an adjusted 43.8 in her initial sand start, and accomplished that with trouble and without Lasix ( which is now part of the package ). Gets in with a feather. #10 FAST FRACTION was eased in the comeback attempt ( uh oh ), and had to show the stewards that all was well, and did just that with a bullet workout on the 9th of the month. Better bred for the brown than the green, so we wouldn't be surprised to see an improved performance here. #11 AUBURN has been M.I.A. for quite some time, but finds herself at an all time low and has closed out the superfecta in all three starts on the main track. BEATABLE FAVORITE: Neither #12 VICTORY CRUSADE or #13 NENITA (AE) makes our first cut, so whicherver one makes it over to the races fills the bill. If they line up side by side, then it's the latter.


Race  5

1.Kayla's Tune


3.Raspberry Ballet

#10 KAYLA'S TUNE posted a career best effort when placing in her lone start off the shelf, and did such when placing directly in front of a next out winner. Bobblehead picks up the mount in his first day back from an injury, and we'll give this one a tepid nod. #3 AIZU returned off a 3 1/2 month freshening to complete the exacta under nearly identical circumstances two months back, and the 3rd & 4th place finishers from that heat finished 1st & 2nd next out, improving their Beyers by an avg, of 15.5 points. #1 RASPBERRY BALLET came along stoutly to grab 20% of the purse 18 days back, and has performed admirably over the blades as well.  OFF TURF: 12-13(MTO)-6-1-3  NOTE: AS OF 11:53 P.M. MONDAY, THE #1 WILL BE OUR FIRST CHOICE.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #11 BASELINE DRIVE is favored because of the Brown/Irad combo, but for all intents & purposes ( or porpoises, as Jacque Cousteau might say ), this one is just moderately bred, and we'll side against at 2-1.  NOTE: AS OF 12:34, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 13-2-3.


Race  6 

1.Mustang Cat

2.Joe Di Baggio

3.Karen's Cove

These three should suffice for all our rolling action.  #5 MUSTANG CAT was claimed up in the Bayou for a dime back in early March, but took a bit of a sabbatical after that placing, and is now transitioned back to the main. Five year old finished third in his lone start off the bench, and as the lifetime numbers for T & D are just about the same, we're expecting a goodie. #3 JOE DI BAGGIO is a steady if unspectacular sort who finds himself at an all time low this afternoon. He and our next selection should be no worse than 3rd in this spot, for all you show punters out there. #8 KAREN'S COVE won at this level 46 days ago, so right off the bat, he figures, no? Five returnees from that affair have come back to amass a cumulative 5:2-1-1 mark in their next outings ( from four different deals ), improving in the BSF dept. by an average of 2.8 points; 3:1-1-1 mark when last to load is noted. 


Race  7


2.Blazing Desire

3.Flute Maker

We're only digging this troika. #11 NEVERSTOPDREAMING has lost ground in the lane in each of his last four trips to the frontside, so why would we lean his way in today's spot? Well, like we've mentioned, we have a fondness for fading sprinters going long for the first time over the blades, as sometimes they can get brave if able to secure an easy enough lead. Need more? We have an excellent DRF Formulator stat in play here, as De La Cerda is a fat 11:5-1-2-1 when adding blinkers to turf stayers on this circuit at < 44-1 ( non firsters ). The winners came back $6, $7, $9, $18 & $11, and the more we type...  #1 BLAZING DESIRE went all the way vs. slightly weaker on this course back in mid April, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. Speedy sort always gets backed at the windows and should be a factor once again. #2 FLUTE MAKER rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 2-12(MTO)-6(MTO)-1-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 UNCLE ANDREW  NOTE: AS OF 12:50, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-5-6.


Race  8 

1.Crumb Bun


3.Sky Chaser

Very competitive race, here. #6 CRUMB BUN is a steady if unspectacular sort who bested more than half the field at 13-1 on the 3rd of the month, and is 2 for 5 when beginning from the outermost two slots -- compared to being just 1-13 otherwise. Mild choice. #3 BARGAINAIRE has partaken in the triple in seven consecutive non stakes engagements and that's enough reason for us to include. #4 SKY CHASER shoots for the hat trick today, and it's well within reach, given her affinity for this strip. 


Race  9 

1.Fury Song

2.Borrowed Angel

3.Wild About This

#10 FURY SONG hasn't done much to get the pulse racing thus far, but did in fact best half the field when trying the gramma for the first time way back when. Turf pedigree is still a tad unproven, but the sire had a placing in his lone try over the stuff, as well as owning a 7:1-3-0 mark on the poly ( which we feel translates well to the verde ). Additionally, the paternal granddam had a 12:1-3-2 ledger on this surface, and we'll shoot for a bomber in the nitecap. #9 BORROWED ANGEL posted an adjusted 39 in the primary turf spin, and did it w/out blinks & the wonder drug -- both of which are now a part of the equation. #7 WILD ABOUT THIS has a couple'a decent running lines and recently fired off a crisp turf move up at Palm Meadows.  OFF TURF: 11-4-3-9-14(AE)    NOTE: AS OF 12:59, DUE TO THIS RACE BEING RUN ON A FAST TRACK, OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 2-10-1.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      46-351     ( $592.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-15  ( 6.7% )    Favorites Win %   127-351   ( 36.6% )(As of Thursday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-14        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-14     ( 28.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout