SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/29


Another good day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--$17 winner

--A cold Quinella of $104 & a $12 Quinella Box

--A Cold Exacta of $167 & a $42 Exacta Box

--A Cold Triple of $415

--Three Rolling Doubles of $202, $38 & $100

--A Rolling Pick Three of $652

--Another successful Beatable Favorite 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #6 Cactus Kitten


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Gulfstream - 5/29


Race  1

1.Gracie's Dream

2.Tapizar Girl


Excellent race to go walk the marmot.  #10 GRACIE'S DREAM is a bit light from a speed figure perspective, but with maidens we go back anywhere in their P.P.'s to find something positive, and this one has a couple of okay adjusted numeros. Gal sheds five pounds in the day's opener, and note that she was less than five within the lead at the top of the lane last time out. #12 TAPIZAR GIRL is another one where you have to delve deeply to find something positive, but has posted some of her best #'s when beginning from an "outside-ish" slot ( some horses simply like to be in the clear ), and we'll chunk into the hopper in a forgettable opener. #8 GOODBITOFBIZNESS is second off the layoff & gets a tremendous upgrade in the jockey department.  OFF TURF: 10-6-7-5-15(AE)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 CACTUS KITTEN doesn't make our first cut.


Race  2

1.Tempt Me


3.My Glory

The comment line for the #1 TEMPT ME says "Checked start; lost whip turn". Safe to say you can be a bit forgiving of that deal, no? That being said, January foal lost by only five at 51-1, and now switches from an apprentice to a journeyman. This is the first foal to make it to the frontside out of a lightly raced dam, but daddy was a dashing son of a gun, and we'll take a nibble at big balloons in a mostly unproven lot. #6 SOPHISTICURL takes the biggest drop in the game off an uninspiring bow and has some improvement in the saddle. #4 MY GLORY has a decently hidden 36 & 3 move on the ledger for today's initial foray, and despite being the first one to race out of an unraced dam, the maternal grandsire was 7 of 11 in dirt sprints ( banking a boatload of money ), and that one's "mate" was 3:1-1-1 doing the same. 


Race  3

1.G Q Coverup

2.The Zip Zip Man

3.Gran Malbec

#3 G Q COVERUP's last outing: "Went to knees at the start."... Penultimate heat: "Bobbled at the start" ( from the 11 hole in a route )... Three starts back: Dead game 4th place finish at 40-1 ( by less than three lengths ) in his first start off a break, against slightly tougher, earning an adjusted speed figure of 76.2. We have no qualms whatsoever in utilizing at 30-1. #11 THE ZIP ZIP MAN has crashed the super in both "3rd off the L/O spins and has done his best work @ the trip ( 20:4-2-6 ). #4 GRAN MALBEC was ( from a BSF perspective ) heading in the right direction before being inexplicably placed on the sand 43 days back, but if he can shake that off, will be toting a 7:4-1-0 mark when up for sale on the sod. OFF TURF: 8-13(MTO)-2-1-5


Race  4 


2.Memphis Showboat

3.Jades Gelly 

#9 ITSAROLLOFTHEDICE hasn't seen the scene since last fall, but new conditioner knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and this one is one for three with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump. Meeeeek choice in a heat with just one first draft elimination. #5 MEMPHIS SHOWBOAT looked good when grabbing the sheepskin back in February, and looked like he was going back to back until he was the victim of Bobblehead's antics three weeks later, and got set down. Not quite sure what happened in the most recent, but we'll afford her a chance to make amends in this spot. #3 JADES GELLY got her photo taken in the lone "second off the shelf" attempt, and was a re-claim by Ward that day. A layoff ensued with blase' results, but that was on a "good" course, and we'll leave in the mix.  OFF TURF: 2-5-7-3-9


Race  5

1.Indy Front

2.Go Jo Jo Go

3.Queen Arella

#10 INDY FRONT has shown absolutely zippo in the mornings for today's career starter, but $1,000 purchase was dropped by a dam who won her lone start ( 11K ), and is a half to a 1 fer 2 sand sprinter ( 11K ) and a 1 of 8 sprinter on the sand ( 9K ). Paternal grandsire chalked up an 8:2-4-1 record at this trip ( lots of black type ), and obviously A.P. Indy down below aids the cause. Listen, we realize this is asking a lot, but you seeing anyone else in here you'd bet your life on? #6 GO JO JO GO tried to get the job done at 8/5 sans a pilot at first asking, but that ain't legal, so will try it again under similar circumstances. #7 QUEEN ARELLA is 20-1 with a bullet gate breeze, but we're seeing this one at single digits today. 


Race  6 

1.Road to Peace

2.Please Sit Down

3.Sovereign Warrior

#2 ROAD TO PEACE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the last troika, and that includes his first turf route over firm ground. We always give a runner two opportunities under a particular set of circumstances to sort things out, and this one is bred well enough to permit just that. The other sod starts were honest enough, and bay gelding totes the lightest impost of his career. #4 PLEASE SIT DOWN hasn't been led into the gate since the day after Independence Day, 2019, but chestnut chap was ambitiously spotted a couple'a times since the purchase, and is now at a more palatable level for the return; always love seeing those mile breezes. #1 SOVEREIGN WARRIOR improved by about 10% in the lone 1X to 2X spin, and did such when facing stakes competition at 53-1. To show you how tough that race was, the 2nd, 3rd & 4th place finishers ALL came back to win next time out, elevating their numeros by 11.7 pts. in the process.  OFF TURF: 12(MTO)-3-13-2-4


Race  7

1.Island Tap

2.The Gipper

3.Oak Bluffs

We have no idea why the #9 ISLAND TAP is listed as 20-1 in this spot. Five year old went coast to coast like butter and toast at the level just below this two starts back ( when going brown to green, just like today ), then spit the bit in a tough "off the turf" try 50 days later. This one has gone 60-67-81 in his last three tries over the blades, and although Meneses is having a grisly meet, we now he's better than that. #7 THE GIPPER hasn't been seen since being conditioned by the since arrested Jorge Navarro back on February 6th, but we like how there's no scary drop, and five returnees from that affair accumulated a 5:2-1-1 ledger in their followup engagements. #5 OAK BLUFFS is as game a 10 year old gelding as you'll ever find, and the "declining" 57:19-9-6 lifetime mark tells you just that; 4 fer 10 mark with Bobblehead duly noted.  OFF TURF: 1-2-7-6-10  NOTE: AS OF 2:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  8 


2.Sayonara Baby

3.How Sweep It Is

#5 MERSEYSIDE got to the line first the only time she went from green to brown ( right here at Hallandale Beach ), and is now reunited with the pilot from that day. Slim margin. #3 SAYONARA BABY was a lively runner up in this race about three weeks ago and makes sense once again. #1 HOW SWEEP IT IS has completed the exacta in two of three when first to load and has done her best work beneath today's pilot. 


Race  9 


2.Tony's Rose

3.Royal Jewel

#3 TREVESS put it all together with a wire job against maiden claimers back on 4/19, and as this one is just as nicely bred for the turf as the dirt, we see no reason a repeat performance isn't within reach. #5 TONY'S ROSE has been beset by layoff lines after each of her two starts ( the last of which was ten months ago ), and although the Beyer figure from the maiden breaker may appear to have been on the low side, it actually turns out to be a 63.1 from an adjusted standpoint. Jockey/trainer combo is potent. #1 ROYAL JEWEL was visually impressive in procuring the sheepskin on this course in mid March and has been working decently since.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-1-3-5-7(MTO)


Race  10

1.Pachanga Patrol

2.Woodhaven Kid

3.My Cousin Joe

Watching "Kelly's Heroes" for the 327th time whilst typing away tonight ( woof woof ) and it never gets old.  As for the finale, #3 PACHANGA PATROL showed zippo in the bow, but takes the biggest drop in the game, owns a healthy 363 Tomlinson figure for the distance, and although the parents' resume's leave a lot to be desired, three of the four grandparents were millionaires. We always like to give a horse two shots, so we're in. #8 WOODHAVEN KID has encountered some trouble in both starts to date, but showed some improvement in the most recent ( despite not being particularly well bred for the wet stuff ), and now adds blinkers. #9 MY COUSIN JOE is a $40K auction purchase who can be all yours for 62.5% of that price, and draws well for the debut while owning a couple of okay breezes.   NOTE: AS OF 2:48, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 2 & 5 WILL BE OUR ECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      47-360     ( $609.10 )   Beatable  Favorites   1-16  ( 6.3% )    Favorites Win %   128-360   ( 35.6% )(As of Friday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-14        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-14     ( 28.7% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout