SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Gulfstream Selections & Analysis - 5/31 - Closing Day
  
  

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Big day yesterday, as we had two winners -- one of them our 2nd biggest winner here, to the tune of $107 !!  As if that wasn't enough, we nailed an Ice Cold Exacta of $1,274 !!  Thank you to all who shared some of your winnings with Old Friends at Cabin Creek.


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 1 - #3 King of Rock  Race 10- #2 Game Boy Benny


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Gulfstream - 5/31 - Closing Day

 

Race  1

1.Sudden Capture

2.U.S. Coast Guard

3.Brian's Avenue

#10 SUDDEN CAPTURE showed nothing in the debut more than 2/3rd's of a year back, but that was without the use of Lasix and blinkers, which are now a part of of the makeup. Draw a line through the comebacker, as he basically lost all chance at the start, and is now back on what will most likely end up being his preferred surface. First foal out of a lightly raced dam was sired by an hombre who was 8:4-2-0 on the poly, and we feel that sometimes translates well to the turf. #1 U.S. COAST GUARD hasn't been seen in nearly the length of a calendar, but owns a couple'a good turf lines and couldn't land in a weaker spot. #12 BRIAN'S AVENUE comes in today off a career best effort and will need to utilize some of that speed to cross over from today's outside slot.  OFF TURF: 5-6-3-8-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 KING OF ROCK

 

Race  2

1.Cross of Galilee

2.Handsome Effort

3.C.P.A. Genius

#10 CROSS OF GALILEE smacked into the starting apparatus first time out ( no bueno ), but the works before that were honest enough, so we'll give this one another shot at a big price. #4 HANDSOME EFFORT tipped his hand a bit with a nice 36 & 2 first ever turf breeze back in March, and Foley has been putting a bit of bottom into him while awaiting a spot for the bow. #2 C.P.A. GENIUS has shown zilch in the mornings for today's career starter, but the maternal granddam did well on the gramma, and we'll chunk beneath.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-8-5-1-6(MTO)

 

Race  3

1.Beast Mode

2.Shanghai Moon

3.Makabim

#6 BEAST MODE has been in poor form of late, but gelding was a convincing winner in his only 2X to 1X attempt ( over this oval ), and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here. Over the last 60 months, single digit trainer & jockey click at a 14% rate ( 3 for 21 ) with locally based male dirt stock ( 3YO & up ) off breaks of less than two months @ < 80-1, and the payouts were fat -- $25, $123 & $7. #4 SHANGHAI MOON has amazingly gone down and up the Beyer ladder over each of his dozen starts, so today should be a goodie, no? If only it was all that simple. Hurtak charge has gone 3:1-2-0 in his last three tries at this level & gets in light. #1 MAKABIM won his only start off a break and pre-layoff pilot returns.   NOTE: AS OF 6:42 P.M. SATURDAY, DUE TO AN ERROR, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 6-7-1.  NOTE: AS OF 12:13, SUNDAY, DUE TO A LATE SCTRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Kozy Dreams

2.Undercover Outlaw

3.Lady Teuflesberg

#7 KOZY DREAMS down the lane. #6 UNDERCOVER OUTLAW beat home just the chase ambulance on the 26th of April, but closed out the exacta up at Oldsmar in the start just before that, and while quite light in the Beyer speed figure dept., she ain't facing much and may spice things up a bit. #4 LADY TEUFLESBERG faded in the debut after setting some insane splits early on, but has been given some time to sort things out and is eligible to rebound with today's surface switch. 

 

Race  5

1.See Below

2.See Below

3.See Below

As one of our main selections is on the Also Eligible list, we're going to lay out two different scenarios -- one if #13 NOTHIN BUT NET (AE) draws in and one if he gets scratched.

Draws in: #8 COLD WARRIOR -- #13 NOTHIN BUT NET (AE) -- #7 SWINGIN ON A STAR

Gets scratched: #7 SWINGIN ON A STAR -- #1 MR IMPRSSIVE -- #6 MAKINALEGACY 

OFF TURF: 6-4-8-10-3 

 

Race  6 

1.Tiz Enough

2.Little Shamrock

3.Starship Voyager

#3 TIZ ENOUGH comes in today off a layoff, and outran her odds when completing the triple the only time she has done such ( at G.P. ). Grey gal is reunited with Lugo in this spot, and said pilot guided this one to a career best effort right here in the first week of March; wouldn't be surprised to see a solid performance. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with #2 LITTLE SHAMROCK, as this firster has a nicely hidden 48 flat move amidst a bevy of ordinary works. 395 Tomlinson figure for the dx. is hefty, and $280,000 auction purchase can make some noise. #4 STARSHIP VOYAGER rounds out the top three.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 GOT IT MADE doesn't make our first cut, so why would we accept favoritism?

 

Race  7

1.Lucky Milady

2.Teacher Drama

3.Kayseri

#11 LUCKY MILADY is a fading dirt dasher going long on the lawn for the first time, and we always pay extra attention to this type, as they can get brave if able to relax a bit early on. Three year old is a full to Itsmyluckycharm who's won 7 of 15 lifetime ( 227G ) and that one is 3 of 8 on the blades ( 90G ) which includes a 1 fer 4 mark in turf sprints. #6 TEACHER DRAMA has partaken in the superfecta in both dirt to turf attempts, and goes from an apprentice to a ( albeit struggling ) journeyman. #2 KAYSERI has some zip and drops a touch.  OFF TURF: 7-12-3-1-4  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Running for Riz

2.Royal Squeeze 

3.First Deal

#5 RUNNING FOR RIZ is a steady if unspectacular sort who tired to finish 4th in this race on the 10th of the month, and while the figure came back a bit on the low side, note that the other start on a wet track was lousy, so perhaps he simply doesn't dig the stuff. Four year old had cracked the 80's in his troika just prior to the last, and may be a bit overlooked versus these. #2 ROYAL SQUEEZE has simply been a win machine at Gulfstream Park, as the 21:9-3-3 record belies, and is 3:1-1-1 in his last triad with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump; usable. #3 FIRST DEAL has been beset by three layoff lines in his last three calls to the post, but was doing some good things for the now banished Navarro before that. The gorilla in the room is whether or not new conditioner Delgado can bring this one back to his "miraculous" form. 

 

Race  9 

1.Freddy Soto

2.King's Castle 

3.Slick Star

#5 FREDDY SOTO bounced in the most recent after blowing up the tote board to the tune of $148 in the start just prior, but that was open company & he's back facing conditional claimers today. Don't ignore. #2 KING'S CASTLE was quite empty in the comeback attempt, but has been a part of the super in both D to T spins and gets in light. #1 SLICK STAR has beaten just four home in her last three trips to the frontside, but is showing an uncharacteristically sizzling work on 5/22 for this. 

 

Race  10

1.Whiskey Sunrise

2.Krammy Boy

3.He's Smokin Now

#6 WHISKEY SUNRISE has done very little wrong throughout his brief career, as he's been in front turning for home in all three starts, winning one while placing in the others. Bay boy makes his third start off the L/O, and as the controlling speed, it appears to be his race to lose. #1 KRAMMY BOY has been in the exacta in five of his last six calls to the post, and we like how this one is protected against the claim today. #7 HE'S SMOKIN NOW gets Samy back in the stirrups this afternoon, and they got the lion's share of the purse in their only rendezvous back in mid February.   NOTE: AS OF 6:48 P.M. SATURDAY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 7-1-6.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 GAME BOY BENNY

 

Race  11

1.Twirling Wind

2.Tide Storm

3.Rosa Star

#3 TWIRLING WIND hasn't been in action since being eased back on the 1st of December, but we know that Matz doesn't send out any sore animals, so there's nothing to worry about in that regards. The worktab is looking good, and barn does well with those returning off elongated absences. #1 TIDE STORM ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) has a tag attached for the first time today. #2 ROSA STAR closes out our race, day, week, month & meet. We want to thank you all for following us down here in Florida during these trying times, and we're back in action in The Big Apple beginning on Wednesday, so don't forget to continue following us for the Belmont meet, as well as our selected Graded stakes analysis throughout the year ! Fin. OFF TURF: 5-9-7-1-10  NOTE: AS OF 6:52 P.M. SATURDAY, WE HAVE AMENDED OUR SELECTIONS TO 5-3-8.


Gulfstream      ( Spring ):      49-381     ( $720.50 )   Beatable  Favorites   2-17  ( 11.8% )  Favorites Win %   135-381   ( 35.4% )(As of Sunday morning)

Gulfstream      ( Winter ):        8-76       ( $141.00 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0% )       Favorites Win %     23-76     ( 39.1% ) 


Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2511-12450 ($21,132.80)  Beatable Favorites : 343-1222( 28.1% )Favorite's Win %: 4753-12533 ( 37.9% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats      (All Final): 2596-12998 ($21,953.00)  Beatable Favorites : 358-1290( 27.8% )Favorite's Win %: 4915-13120 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.6% takeout


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