SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 6/6 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Oaks, Derby, & Hollywood Gold Cup



Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont selections & analysis, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 8 - #7 Authentic

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Graded Stakes - 6/6 - Santa Anita - Santa Anita Oaks, Derby, & Hollywood Gold Cup


Race 5 - Santa Anita Oaks



3.Swiss Skydiver

#3 SPEECH was extremely sharp when a daylight clear runner up in a strung out field down in Hot Springs, and filly improved by about 20% in the Beyer department for the secondary routing attempt, and gets an appreciable rider upgrade to Prat today. Hard to knock a gal who's yet to miss the board. #2 MERNEITH has shown some versatility in her troika of starts to date, ringing up exacta placings going short on a fast track, long on a fast track, and short on a wet track. We like to see that in the youngsters, and 375 Tomlinson figure for the distance tells us that there's ample room for improvement. #1 SWISS SKYDIVER has essentially improved with each passing start and owns the best speed figure in the bunch, but we'll slide beneath as McPeek is 1-12 with graded dirt routers who WON 22-50 days back and are 16-1 or below today.


Race 8 - Santa Anita Derby

1.Friar's Road

2.Azul Coast

3.Anneau d'Or

#1 FRIAR'S ROAD overcame some traffic difficulties to secure the runner up dough 35 days ago, so it's safe to say that the connections are happy with the blinker addition. Colt makes his 3rd start off a L/O today, and with a lot of speed signed on, it's nice to see a strong finisher like Franco get the assignment. Please feel free to use our analysis for the secondary choice in race 5 for #5 AZUL COAST ( second half of the uncoupled entry with our Beatable Favorite ) here, as they're nearly identical. Fella showed a nice "Z" pattern when showing behind his barnmate two back, and it's not often you get this barn at a price. #4 ANNEAU D'OR put forth a gutsy performance in last year's Breeders' Cup right here and is eligible to rebound off the most recent for today's 2nd off the L/O try.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 AUTHENTIC fills the bill, as Bob Baffert's Baked Beans is just 1 for his last 12 with Grade 1 stock at this circuit ( and 3 for his last 31 ). 


Race 10 - Hollwood Gold Cup




We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator stats here, so let's get right to 'em. #6 TENFOLD: The "As-Man" ( 20% on the norm ) is a whopping 10 of 23 with graded dirt stayers off breaks of 51-101 days ( 12-1 or less ) and there's a positive return on investment in that regards as well. #2 MIDCOURT: Shirreffs ( 13% day to day ) is 5:3-1-1 with locally based runners fitting this criteria in the 51-131 day bracket ( 10-1 or < ) with payoffs of $10 & $5 x 2. #5 IMPROBABLE: B.B. ( 26% when tying his shoes in the morning ) has a 9:4-2-2-1 mark with Santa Anita dirt stock going long in the graded ranks at 4-1 or beneath ( between 51 & 61 days ). 


Belmont          ( Current ):       1-30      ( $3.80 )     Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        7-30   ( 23.3% )( As of Saturday afternoon )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout