SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/5
  
  

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An inauspicious start to the meet, with a bevy of faves on Day one & a gaggle of bombers yesterday, but we look to rebound today! 


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Belmont - 6/5

 

Race  1

1.Booby Trap

2.Jack Bo

3.Macha's Reward

#1 BOOBY TRAP was in poor form just before the layoff, but four year old closed out the triple in his only dash off a layoff ( versus tougher ), and not only dis that showing come from the pine, but this one owns a collective 2 for 6 mark when starting from the innermost two slots ( 0-10 otherwise ). After four painfully slow works, this one fired off a crisp 8th best of 48 breeze nine days back. #4 JACK BO was a gamely runner up when finishing directly in front of a next out winner in his only start off an absence, and got the lion's share in his lone foray at this distance; pre-layoff pilot returns. #6 MACHA'S REWARD ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) goes two turns to one for the first time in this spot, and has a 4th best of 45 breeze on display for his Big Apple debut.

 

Race  2

1.Minit Maus

2.Appreciate

3.Wood Bee

#5 MINIT MAUS ( LOVED that show ! ) had only beaten home three in her last quartet before being sent to the sidelines in early February, but gal is one for two in turf routes ( with the tally occurring in her only tango on the inner ), and said score was at 28-1 with an adjusted Beyer of 65.8 ( which is decent for this allotment ). You should also recognize that this miss hung up an adj. 66.1 in her last turf start off a L/O ( when closing out the super at 84-1 ). Hmmmm.... #1 APPRECIATE has hit the board in 5 of 6 when beginning from the inside two posts ( in comparison to 7 of 17 from the three hole on out ) and we like to point these things out, as some horses prefer to run while covered up. Lone win came right here. #3 WOOD BEE got the job done in her only outing off a break, and ended up with a new address afterwards. Jockey/Trainer combo working on a sweet streak of 6:5-0-1 of late ( non firsters ).  OFF TURF: 7-3-8-2-9

 

Race  3

1.Sparty Boy

2.Brimstone

3.Neighborhood Bully

#5 SPARTY BOY has a fair 4:1-1-0-1 boxscore at Big Sandy, and 4% conditioner is 2 for 10 when using Reylu on the dirt ( $11 & $16 ). Most timid of selections. #3 BRIMSTONE owns a win & a placing from as many dirt sprints off a hiatus, and has done fine work at the trip, as the 3 fer 9 mark belies. Gotta love the overall "declining" ledger of 49:9-7-5 ( 400K earned ), as well. #13 NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY ( also put in on opening day, so take a look at the scratches ) owns a 9:2-2-1 ledger when starting from the outermost two slots ( on the sand ) compared to an 18:1-0-2 mark otherwise, Gelding has done okay here and will need to hustle a bit early on from the 13 slot. 

 

Race  4 

1.Bank Gala

2.Pategory One

3.Copper Chalice

#8 BANK GALA switches back to the Ferraro barn for today's comebacker, and Jimmy had done some decent work with this gelding back in '19. Last start was a career best effort , and this one hasn't missed a beat in the mornings since. Should be right there turning for home. #2 PATEGORY ONE was bred for a thousand clams, went for 20X that amount at Ocala, is protected against the purchase by my boys at Ten Strike Racing, and is a half to Sal the Turtle, who went 9-17, netting more than $228,000 in earnings. #13 COPPER CHALICE begins his working life today with a couple'a decent works in tow, and this first foal out of an unraced dam has some decent pedigree on the topside and 2nd generation. 

 

Race  5

1.Loaded Gun

2.Sandy Lane Kitten ( AE )

3.Tolaga Bay

#3 LOADED GUN has only beaten home a handful in his last troika, but they were on the dirt, and this one has proven to be appreciably better going over the blades. The last time this one set foot on the gramma, an adjusted 80.6 was the end result, and that number most definitely fits snugly vs. these. Silvera a good front end jockey and DiPrima is known to get speed out of his stock, so you better watch out with this one. #16 SANDY LANE KITTEN (AE) had a troubled but honest enough start in his only start off a break, and it came beneath today's pilot. Chance for a share if able to draw in. #6 TOLAGA BAY outran his odds when giving a lively showing in his only start off a L/O, and has been gelded since the last.  OFF TURF: 4-2-11-7-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:18, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1. Onemoregreattime

2.Topper T

3.Mount Travers

#1 ONEMOREGREATTIME got his photo taken the only time he came back from a hiatus on the dirt, and gelding with a nice "declining" mark of 18:5-3-2 is up for sale for just the second time in his first start for O'Dwyer. Slight edge. #3 TOPPER T has been beset by three layoff lines after his last four starts, but four year old is an otherwise consistent sort who owns a 13:3-3-3 lifetime and a 3:1-1-1 mark at the distance. Colt has been working quite steadily for the return. #2 MOUNT TRAVERS has a modicum of back class, and the pilot from his finest effort is aboard once again.  NOTE: AS OF 12:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Appletini

2.Queendom

3.Dancingwthdaffodls

#12 APPLETINI went coast to coast like butter and toast the last time she returned off a break in the action, and you can draw a line through the lone turf attempt, as the words "wiped out" were in the commentary. That being said, the dam was 1 for 5 going short on the sod, and sometimes it not so much the breeding that prevails in heats such as this, but rather speed -- which this one has an abundance of; J/T combo click at a crisp 3 for 10 rate with those returning in less than 150 days. #9 QUEENDOM overcame a bit of trouble to close out the tri in her only go on the grass, and despite that, may be somewhat overlooked in this spot. #7 DANCINGWTHDAFFODLS finished first in one of her two tries after a layoff, and has done quite well beneath Jose ( 3:1-1-1 ).  OFF TURF: 2-3-4-8-5  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #15 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Moon Over Victoria

2.Wicked Amber

3.Brass Ring

#9 MOON OVER VICTORIA was a wide and game 3rd the last time she caught firm ground, and the winner from that day repeated next time out, increasing the Beyer figure by about 10.2%. Romero has come through for us before, and we're not gonna be shy about using him on some bombers this meet. #11 WICKED AMBER owns a win ( $22 ) and a third ( 45-1 ) in her only turf dashes to date, both of them under the guidance of today's jock. You may want to see if he's still aboard, as we heard he took quite a tumble during training ours the other day. In her first attempt off a break in the action, #2 BRASS RING was a lively ( and well clear ) runner up behind a next out winner ( @ 20-1 ), and the next time she came from the shelf, had absolutely no shot when going eight wide in a nine horse field ( Nurse !! ). Discounting the race we just mentioned, Gyarmati chage had gone 52-58-71 on the green stuff, so perhaps this one still has some upside.  OFF TURF: 1-8-16(MTO)-3-6

 

Race  9 

1.Nisha

2.Last True Love

3.Gypsie Janie

#6 NISHA ( also spotted in yesterday's 5th race ) owns a win & a placing in just as many dirt outings off a respite, and how do you leave out mare who's a perfect 4 of 4 at BEL -- at double digit odds, no less? #1 LAST TRUE LOVE has been working sensationally for today's return engagement, and that's never to be taken lightly for a runner who likes to come from a bit off the pace. In a bit of an anomaly, this one draws the pine for the first time ( in her 26th start ), and could pose a big threat if able to work out a pocket trip while finding a seam late. #2 GYPSIE JANIE shoots for the grand slam today and is but a neck shy of a poyfect 3 for 3 mark when given a break. 

 

Race  10

1.Call Home 

2.Point of Humor

3.Arkaan

#12 CALL HOME hasn't done much to get the pulse racing in the morning's for today's debut, but $20,000 bred animal went for double that at Keeneland, and while there's not much going on in the first generation  in regards to the gramma, the maternal grand dam was in fact four for seven on the lawn. Love the drawn of course. #4 POINT OF HUMOR has some decent running lines, but it's hard to ignore the trainer's 1 for 73 mark, so we'll be leaving beneath. #5 ARKAAN is an expensive January foal who is extremely well bred for this deal, and has been setting stopwatches ablaze in the mornings for the beginning of his working life.  OFF TURF: 9-1-4-5-12  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Belmont          ( Current ):       1-20      ( $3.80 )     Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        6-20   ( 30.0% )( As of Friday afternoon ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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