SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/7
  
  

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Washout of a day yesterday ( literally & figuratively ) as the track became a quagmire at the halfway point, with the turf being a bog as well.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #4 Talako


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/7

 

Race  1

1.Evan's Nice Now

2.Movie Score

3.Tiz a Kitten

#6 EVAN'S NICE NOW was a well beaten but well clear runner up in his lone start off a layoff, and did such right here, versus similar, directly behind a next out winner. Gal's best work has come over this oval, and bug had a nice winner for this outfit from just two mounts. Slim margin. #9 MOVIE SCORE owns a 2:1-0-1 mark at Big Sandy ( 15:1-0-3 elsewhere ), and filly with a bit of speed gets a decent "send" rider in Diaz. #3 TIZ A KITTEN is a notorious nibbler ( 52:2-11-7 ), but has hit the board in two of three right here and finds herself at her lowest level to date.

 

Race  2

1.Ever Dangerous

2.Don Juan Kitten

3.Get Smokin

#8 EVER DANGEROUS jumped into some deep waters after the maiden breaker down at Hallandale Beach, and although the result left a bit to be desired, the Beyer from the bow was essentially replicated. That last fact is something we've always looked favorably upon, and Manny Man gets the assignment. #7 DON JUAN KITTEN finished just behind the above in the aforementioned stakes last out, but has fired off a bullet since, and may move up in today's 2nd off the layoff try. #6 GET SMOKIN was a dead game runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her lone try off a sabbatical ( at 11-1 ), and it's hard to dismiss a runner with graded black type who's only missed the board once in six outings.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-4-2-7-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 TALAKO

 

Race  3

1.Athwaaq

2.Tayler's the Boss

3.Cotton Candy Cutie

#12 ATHWAAQ is a zippy sort who has been a part of the superfecta in 10 of 12 lifetime, and we're hoping Ruben Silvera will be able to employ the killer crossover from today's outside draw. Mild choice in a race with no first draft eliminations. #8 TAYLER'S THE BOSS has never seen these depths before and owns a 19:3-3-2 mark @ the trip, in comparison to being 10:0-0-3 at other distances of ground. #2 COTTON CANDY CUTIE is a sensational 3 for 4 in dirt dashes off a break over a glib surface ( $3, $7 & $8 ) and that stands out when you stand it up against her 2 for 25 mark in all other starts. Watch out, suckahs !

 

Race  4 

1.Pandamom

2.Funny Bones Flag

3.Giacosa

#2 PANDAMOM was lucky enough to get 3rd place money when taking the overland out in the November bow, and the decent turf pedigree ( as well as being a recipient of the wonder drug for the first time ) tells us to give this one another shot. #6 FUNNY BONES FLAG ( Noooo....not Colonel Flagg ) has a couple of decent moves on the docket for today's initial spin, and three of the four grandparents hit the board in 11 of 16 times when going over the blades ( we couldn't dig up the remaining one. #10 GIACOSA plodded along for a fourth place finish behind our top selection first time out, and pre layoff pilot comes back, which is something we always like to see, as it shows that nothing untoward occurred in their last pairing.  OFF TURF: 2-4-1-11-12  NOTE: AS OF 2:43 P.M. FRIDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  5

1.Microsecond

2.Frozen Account

3.Theitalianamerican

#2 MICROSECOND nearly went all the way at first asking over in Ozone Park back in February, and Repole must think highly of this one, as he moves the horse over to Pletcher while going from the apprentice ( who did a decent job ) to Jose Ortiz. From an itty bitty sampling, The Toddster is 4:2-2-0 when getting a second time starter and spotting them at this level ( 51-117 days ) w/a sub category of 1-1 right here. #1 FROZEN ACCOUNT ( cross entered Friday, so check the changes ) outran his 32-1 odds when completing the triple first out, but we have absolutely no idea what happened in the followup engagement. The good news tho, is that this one has been performing admirably in the A.M.'s since, and there's no scary drop; chance to make amends catching a fast track for the first time. #5 THEITALIANAMERICAN has a touch of back class and may come along for a slice of salami.  NOTE: AS OF 12:19, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Lake Chicot

2.La Negrita 

3.Miss Liana

#2 LAKE CHICOT ( spotted on Friday's card ) won one of her two starts on the poly ( which we feel translates to the turf well ), and put forth a lively showing underneath today's helmsman at big balloons behind  next out victress in her lone try off a hiatus. First foal out of an unraced dam has a maternal grandsire who went 9:3-2-0 on the gramma, and there are some things to like here. #1 LA NEGRITA showed a bit of improvement from the first turf sprint to the next, and as those starts were more than a half'a year ago, you can expect some improvement with maturity. #10 MISS LIANA is 4:2-0-0-2 lifetime, and although this one's turf pedigree is merely moderate, sometimes dirt speed can carry a runner along in these types of races.  OFF TURF: 8-3(MTO)-7-5-2

 

Race  7

1. Curlin's Legacy 

2.Steelersfanforlife ( AE ) 

3.Impazible Odds

#10 CURLIN'S LEGACY came from Siberia to complete the super the last time he returned off a near identical layoff, gaining more than 20 lengths from the quarter to the line. Chestnut chap will likely need some assistance in the pace department in order to do his best work, but at least he is partnered with a pilot who's off to a good start. #11 STEELERSFANFORLIFE (AE) ( Dig it ) owns a win & a fourth from as many starts after a layoff line, and has been the underside of the exacta ( or "exactor", for those north of the border ) in both spins on the inner. Cardenas with a couple of bombers here on Opening Day. #1 IMPAZIBLE ODDS had posted a decent string of numeros before being sent to the sidelines back in November, but is 5:2-0-1 on the inner & is an obvious factor if fully cranked up.  OFF TURF: 14 (AE)-13(AE)-5-8-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Won and Done

2.American Power

3.Torch of Truth

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator state in play here, so let's get to them in a no frills manner...  #2 WON AND DONE: The Cat Man more than doubles his normative 17% batting average with mid level dirt dashers in the 51-77 day department, and this chap has hit the board in all four starts when breaking from the pine. #3 AMERICAN POWER: Rice owns an 11:4-3-3 record with locally based dirt sprinters in the 51-351 day area code, and has a $2.81 R.O.I. in regards to such. #6 TORCH OF TRUTH is 4:1-1-1-1, got the job done in his only start at the dx., and barn is 6-21 ( $10, $11, $12, $5, $15 & $6 ) with dirt runners at this level off hibernations of 51-271 days @ 10-1 or lower. 

 

Race  9 

1.Lohntwist

2.Skyler's Scramjet

3.Jakarta

#13 LOHNTWIST was doing some fine work back in the autumn ( at decent odds, to boot ), and also happens to have a collective 5:1-0-1-2 ledger on the Widener turf course. Five year old is one for two when breaking from the outermost two slots, and should be in a nice stalking position. #8 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET displayed zippo in his lone turf attempt, but we always give an animal two opportunities over a particular surface to prove themselves, and this one is a half to a 1 for 4 sod sprinter ( 28K ), and the sire 2 of 2 going short on the synthetic. Toss in a little Giant's Causeway, and you have a playable longshot. #3 JAKARTA ( also entered on Saturday, so take a gander at the scratches ) is a bit light from a #'s perspective, but what the hell's wrong with taking a 50-1 shot that's on a 7:5-2-0 run?  OFF TURF: 6-7-115(MTO)-5-9  NOTE: AS OF 12:22, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #11 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Henni Penny

2.Wishes and Dreams 

3.Liza Jambalaya

#10 HENNI PENNY crashed the tri in both turf starts last year before being compelled to try the dirt, and that was an unfettered disaster. Gal has been given some time to come into herself, and will be backed by TWO decent sets of DRF Formulator stats. The first one has Donk at 2 for 2 with maiden special weight turf sprinters in the 58-218 day bracket, with both winners paying six clams. The second angle has this barn at 3-10 with the same categories listed above -- eliminating the class level, and adding this course ( 37-1 or < ), with parimutual returns of $39, $7 & $6. Honk if ya like Donk ! #3 WISHES AND DREAMS undergoes a gamut of changes this afternoon ( layoff, miracle drug, new surface, gets in with a feather ) and will only need to find one of those palatable to make an impression here. #9 LIZA JAMBALAYA hasn't been led over to the races in 11 months, but Rudy Rod is 2 for 7 with first time turfers going short after being MIA for 58-618 days.  OFF TURF: 5-8-6-13(AE)-7 

 

Belmont          ( Current ):       1-41      ( $3.80 )     Beatable Favorites    0-1    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        11-41 ( 26.8% )


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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