SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/11
  
  

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Off the schneid ( finally ) with a three bagger ( $11, $9 & $20 ) as well as a whopping $989 exacta box a successful "Beatable Favorite" to boot !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #7 Cousin Andrew


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/11

 

Race  1

1.Brees Bayou

2.Verify

3.Eagles Palace

#1 BREEZE BAYOU hasn't faced the starter in a couple of St. Patrick's Days, but fresh gelding takes the biggest drop in the game today, and from an itsy bitsy sampling, Levine has won with both of his Belmont sand stock taking such a plunge at 148-1 or less ( > 50 days ), with mutuels of $3 & $9. #7 VERIFY hasn't been in action since Turkey time, and gets the "Around the World" treatment today -- first time Lasix, first time blinkers, and is now sans tes-tee-klees. 11% Ribaudo doubles that rate ( 2-9 ) with locally based dirt runners off sabbaticals of 53-391 days ( 38-1 or lower ), with payoffs of $18 & $13. #8 EAGLES PALACE goes turf to dirt, two turns to one, is 3rd off the shelf & drops a few pegs.

 

Race  2

1.Tapizearance

2.Vintage Hollywood

3.Blacktop Legend

#8 TAPIZEARANCE shoots for the hat trick today, and it's definitely well within reach, given the figaros on display, & the fact that this one has already won from an outside slot. #3 VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD finds himself at his highest claiming tag to date, but was doing some nice work just before the shutdown, and is 1 for 4 off a break in the action ( 1-13 otherwise ). #7 BLACKTOP LEGEND got his photo taken in one of two heats off a sabbatical, but we'll leave beneath as the jock is on a chilly streak to start the meet. 

 

Race  3

1.Future Book

2.Luxury Suite

3.Dangerous Edge

#2 FUTURE BOOK has been a bit of an in and outer, but finds himself at his lowest level thus far, and secures white hot Irad Ortiz for the first time. Timid selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #1A LUXURY SUITE has a win and a third from as many starts when available for purchase, and has been gelded for today's return to action; Rosario aboard. #4 DANGEROUS EDGE was visually impressive when procuring the sheepskin back on 3/6, as he gained 11 lengths from the half to the finish line, and did such while fanning eight wide. We always like when a pre-claim/pre-layoff pilot returns, and this one is now claim protected. 

 

Race  4 

1.Ownitifyouwantit

2.Creed

3.Critical Review

#2 OWNITIFYOUWANTIT has hit the board in five of six dirt starts to date, and that includes a pair of exacta finishes from as many starts off an absence. Lone four year old signed on is toting a lot of extra baggage, but Albertani charge appears to be the only one signed on, and is backed by an okay DRF Formulator stat. Aforementioned shotcaller is 2 fer 9 w/locally based maiden special weight dirt equines off hibernations of 51-181 days ( < 17-1 ), with payoffs of $13 & $18. #8 CREED had some late punch when beginning his working life at Oldsmar a month and a half ago, completing the exacta versus a weaker allotment. $650,000 bred animal is bred to go longer, and should appreciate today's added ground. #3 CRITICAL REVIEW has improved with each passing start, and despite having been M.I.A. for quite some time, we see a pair of nice morning moves for today's return.   BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 COUSIN ANDREW fills the bill, as Brown has a frown with locally based runners under these conditions ( 53-141 days ) as he's 0-6 in that regards.

 

Race  5

1.Kansas Kis

2.Love of My Heart

3.Spice Is Nice

#4 KANSAS KIS cuts back while getting a bit of class relief in this spot, and it's hard to argue with the solid 7:1-3-2 ledger outside of the most recent. From a small survey, Handal has won with half of his four dirt animals on the turnback, who missed the $ 32-50 days back ( 12-1 or beneath ). #6 LOVE OF MY HEART has been beset by layoff lines after three of her four outings, but one of those resulted in a next out win ( on the brown stuff ), and we'll incorporate. #5 SPICE IS NICE owns a win & a G2 placing from her only one turn spins, and Johnny V. returns.  NOTE: AS OF 12:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Carlisle Belle

2.Tappanzee

3.Factoring

#11 CARLISLE BELLE showed a touch of improvement from her first turf start to the 2nd, and may possibly improve upon that in today's secondary try over firm ground. Recognize that this steady if unspectacular sort is on a tidy little 6:1-1-0-4 run with a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump, and we always like to see a runner who come from off the pace, show some zip in the A.M.'s. Bombs away ! It's been a long span since #4 TAPPANZEE made it to the races, and despite the fact that she's only beaten home one in her last duet, we'll chunk in, as the jockey/trainer combo are on a sweet 12:4-2-1 streak, and that by far supersedes their individual statistics. #2 FACTORING is one for four in turf trips off a respite, and may spice things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-3(MTO)-2-9-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:32, DUE TO LATE SCRATCH, THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Superego

2.Beg to Differ

3.Our Last Buck

#1 SUPEREGO filled the hearts of some longshot players with a wire to wire tally on St. Valentine's Day, and although the number was a bit lowish, we're assuaged by the fact hat this shotcaller has a tight 3 for 6 boxscore with allowance dirt entrants who snagged the diploma 51-191 days back ( $4, $12 & $14 ). You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the PP's of #8 BEG TO DIFFER, as this one has really been sorting things out since the poor debut last fall, culminating with a snappy maiden breaker in mid March. Should be sitting a perfect stalking trip. #5 OUR LAST BUCK rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Militiaman

2.Mr. Alec

3.Life On Top

We have three decent sets of trainer stats in play here, so let's get right to 'em in a no frills manner...  #9 MILITIAMAN: 18% Stidham is a delicious 11:5-2-1 when getting a new turf router in his barn, and bringing them back after being away for more than 220 days ( 12-1 & undah ). The winners in that sampling were $11 x 2. $7 x 2 & $9. #7 MR. ALEC: C-Squared just about doubles his normative 19% batting average with Elmont based allowance turf stayers off L/O's of 68-368 days, beneath the 18-1 watermark ( $35, $7 & $8 ). #5 LIFE ON TOP: Double J has a nice 10:3-1-2-2 mark with runners of this ilk in the 39-67 day bracket ( $10, $4 & $8 ).  OFF TURF: 9-4-7-5-1

 

Race  9 

1.Moretti

2.Expert

3.Legit

#3 MORETTI was a gamely and well clear runner up directly in front of a next out winner in his lone 3rd off the layoff spin, and comes in today off a confidence building score beneath Javy down at Hot Springs. Mild choice in the day's feature. #6 EXPERT is a win machine over a glib surface, as the 7:4-1-0 record on a fast track alludes to, and incorporated in that is a 1 of 2 mark at Big Sandy. Bullet breeze on display for this one, and if you can see your way clear of the GP Mile, then you have a legitimate threat in this corner. Speaking of "LEGIT", that's the moniker of our third selection here, based on the 3:1-1-1 mark going 1X; 1/3rd of the Pletcher three headed monster gets the services of the meet's leading rider. 

 

Race  10

1.Stuy Town Baby

2.Dilly Joe

3.Wild North

#3 STUY TOWN BABY more than outran his 23-1 offering when completing the triple at Ozone Park going long on the lawn back in the fall, and did such despite a bit of an awkward onset. Gal may have outran her pedigree a bit that day, but we'd be remiss in excluding at what will likely be a decent parimutual offering. Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with Rice firster #5 DILLY JOE in the day's finale, as there's a nice gate move amidst a bevy of ordinary workouts. Dam was 2-6 at this trip ( 47K ) and sire was Grade One placed in two of three attempts going over the blades. #12 WILD NORTH hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but put forth a good effort at 25-1 in her lone turf start, and given natural maturity since that day, could prove even tougher at double digit odds.  OFF TURF: 5-9-12-10-13(AE)  NOTE: AS OF 12:38, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont          ( Current ):       4-51      ( $43.90 )   Beatable Favorites    0-2    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        15-51 ( 29.4% ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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