SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/12


Just one on top winner yesterday, but we had three rolling Pick 3's of $108, $304 & $432 & five rolling Doubles of $141, $18, $80, $33 & $97. Oh yeah -- a successful 'Beatable Favorite' as well.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #7 Mr. Buff

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/12


Race  1

1.River Tiber


3.Sky's Not Falling

Interesting opener, as of the nine signed on, five of then are fillies -- never saw that before. Anyhoo, #3 RIVER TIBER has a couple of sensational morning moves for the beginning of his working life today, and this half million dollar purchase is a full to Hit it a Bomb, who went 3 for 7 and earned more than $626,000 ( including a B.C. score, while being unbeaten at two ). As for our secondary selection, we'll give the nod to #2 WINK. Uncoupled entrymate to the above went for just about 13X the stud fee at auction, and is extremely well bred for this trip. #6 SKY'S NOT FALLING worked crisply from the gate on Sunday down in Laurel, and rates a chance.  OFF TURF: 1-8-2-5-3


Race  2

1.My Last Million



#7 MY LAST MILLION is 1 for 3 off the shelf, totes the lightest impost of her career, and owns a 4:2-2-0 mark when available for purchase. Need more? Baker is in possession of a nice DRF Formulator stat, as the 19% shotcaller nearly doubles that rate ( 11:4-2-2-1 ) with locally based mid level dirt stock off breaks of 51-143 days, with mutuels of $7, $10, $5 & $6. Bombs away ! #8 BERTRANDA ( the recipient of her first layoff after 48 starts ) is another backed by a good trainer's angle, as Kantarmaci has a tight 6:3-2-0 mark with first off the claim dirt runners off sabbaticals of 51-171 days ( 23-1 or less ). #4 LETMETAKETHISCALL has that quintessentially perfect "declining" record that we've grown to appreciate ( 13:8-4-2 ) as it shows she has a schnoz for the line. 


Race  3

1.Creative Style


3.Long May You Run

#7 CREATIVE STYLE is 3:1-1-1 @ the trip, and Barker ( 13% on the norm ) is 8 for 21 w/ dirt dashers in the 51-211 day bracket at 15-1 or < ( $6 x 3, $10, $18, $4, $7 & $9 ). Note this one's 4:2-1-1 boxscore when starting from the outermost two slots on the dirt -- compared to being 11:1-2-2 otherwise ( some horses like being in the clear ). #1 COLTANDMISSISSSIPPI is two of six when first to load ( 3 of 24 from other slots ), and Triple R owns a fat 8 fer 14 record on this circuit with freshly claimed mid level dirt stock on this level( 3YO's & up ) off absences of 51-279 days ridden by Irad ( 11-1 or beneath ). The ROI for that sampling is more than $2.80, and five year old won his lone try at this distance. #5 LONG MAY YOU RUN is quite the appropriately monikered warhorse, as this nine year old makes his 65th trip to the frontside today, while banking just a tick shy of 600 large; must respect.


Race  4 

1.Frosted Rose


3.King of Ranch

#3 FROSTED ROSE merely split the field in his first turf route, but we always like to give a runner a couple of opportunities under a particular set of circumstances before dismissing them. From an itty bitty sampling, Trombetta has won w/2 of 5 turf stayers at this level off hibernations of 68-156 days ( 24-1 or undah ). Demand value, as Jose Lezcano is 1 for 29 at the meet. #4 ARITHMETIC has won both starts in gutsy fashion -- and at generous odds, as well. Can't dismiss. #5 KING OF RANCH has won two straight with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump and comes in today off a career best effort.  OFF TURF: 3-9-8-4-1A  NOTE: AS OF 11:34, DUE TO A LATE SCRTCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  5

1.Charlotte Webley 

2.Molly's Shrink

3.Lottie's Mizzion

#13 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY has spit the bit in both starts to date, but takes the biggest drop in the game today for a clan who's scored with half of their 20 maiden claiming sand sprinters in the 51-129 day zip code ( beneath the 10-1 watermark ). There's a $3.07 return on investment for that study, and Irad gets the assignment. #3 MOLLY'S SHRINK had a nightmarish debut about five months ago, but is a four year old facing younger, has been given some time to work out the kinks, and gets the wonder drug for the first time. #1 LOTTIE'S MIZZION overcame some trouble to complete the triple at big balloons on 3/7, and the 369 Tommy tells us that there may be room for some improvement. 


Race  6 

1.Beale Street 

2.Noor Sahara ( Ire )

3.Eliade ( Fr )

#5 BEALE STREET is a poyfect two for two on the turf and off a break, and Matz has gotten the job done with 2 of his 5 turf routers at this level ( 68-84 days ) w/payoffs of $7 & $37. #10 NOOR SAHARA (IRE) and #9 ELIADE (FR) comprise both parts of the uncoupled Chad Brown entry, and both make their N.A. bows while getting the miracle drug for their first try off elongated absences. We'll side with the former because of the back class and the pilot.  OFF TURF: 7-6-8-4-3


Race  7

1.Sharp Starr


3.Jewel of Arabia

#1 SHARP STARR showed some nice improvement from the first start to the second, and we like the gameness shown despite encountering some trouble in both calls to post. 22% boss is even more boss with runners of this ilk in the 51-191 day range, as he's 11:4-2-1 with that type ( $21, $5, $8 & $16 ). #10 CALIDAD fared much better than her 22-1 offering suggested, as she closed out the exacta right outta the box beneath today's jock. Would be aided with some pace to cut into. #11 JEWEL OF ARABIA hasn't been seen since Hector was a pupperoni, but will likely be a heavy favorite given the adjusted figaros from her freshman season. 


Race  8 


2.Identity Politics


#9 DIRTY ( out of 'Martini' -- ya get it ? ) was burning some baccala when last in action back in his last handful of 2019, and was sent to the shelf to rest and recuperate for a while. The good news tho, is that 'Miah ( who's been quite chilly this year ) is a jazzy 5 for 8 with optional turf horsies in the 77-367 day area ( 38-1 or lowah ) with payouts of $8, $5, $31, $8 & $26. Jose ( also cold ) has a 4:1-1-1 ledger aboard this five year old. #11 IDENTITY POLITICS has hit the board in all three tries off a L/O, as well as both starts going over the blades; logical. #1 SAYYAAF was a dead game and well clear runner up when placing directly in front of a next out winner in his lone try off a layoff and has excellent sprinters' speed.  OFF TURF: 7(MTO)-2-11-1-6(MTO)


Race  9 

1.Funny Guy

2.Pat On the Back


We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to 'em directly. #3 FUNNY GUY: ( who owns a win & a runner up finish after an absence ) will be led over by a trainer who's 3-6 with ungraded dirt sprinters off sabbaticals of 51+ days ( 18-1 or < ), and the winners came back $5, $22 & $6. #8 PAT ON THE BACK ( who positively loves it here, as attested by the 12:6-3-3 mark ) is backed by an angle that has this barn at four for five with those fitting all this exact criteria at 13-1 or below ( $7, $8, $9 & $18 ). #1 BANKIT lost by a noggin in his only attempt off a break in the action, and the As-Man has scored with half of his six ungraded equines who crashed the fiesta 32-50 days back & are cutting back from two turns to one today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 MR. BUFF is 0-2 after an absence, and barn is 1-16 with ungraded dirt runners at Elmont ( 51-165 days ). 


Race  10



3.Bail Out

#4 RELIABILITY has posted a decent troika of BSF's to date, and from a tiny survey, 18% barn is 2 for 4 with those fitting all these precise parameters @ 11-1 or under. Meek selection with the frigid pilot. #2 SHAMROCKET has been ITM in his last quartet, and five returnees from the Hallandale finale came back to amass a cumulative 5:2-0-1 record ( from four different races ) showing average Beyer improvement of 11.8 points. #6 BAIL OUT has been a part of the action in 7 of 11 turf forays, and that includes soem nice results off a hibernation.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-8-11 

Belmont          ( Current ):       5-61      ( $54.30 )   Beatable Favorites    0-3    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        17-61 ( 26.2% )( As of Friday morning ) 

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout