SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/13
  
  

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Just one winner on the day yesterday, but it came back $24, and it was aided by a successful Beatable Favorite in the same race. We also closed out the day with a $160 Rolling Late Double & a $215 Exacta box as well !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/13

 

Race  1

1.False Alarm ( AE )

2.Coragescontender

3.Unlikely

#14 FALSE ALARM (AE) doesn't show much turf pedigree for today's initial grass try, but sometimes dirt speed can carry a runner a long way, regardless of the pedigree. This one displayed improved early zip when last in action, and Reylu has done some decent work with longshots on the stand so far. #7 CORAGESCONTENDER hasn't seen the scene since last fall, but after showing some greenness in his sophomore season, gelding has performed decently in the mornings for today's comebacker, including an important gate move. Owner/Breeder/Trainer had the mother & that one's mother, and although the bottom side has no green in the tree, the topside is excellent in that department. While it's UNLIKELY the #9 will win, we'll chunk beneath because of the sizzling gate wok a dozen days back.  OFF TURF: 12-1-4-5-8  NOTE: AS OF 12:29, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #13 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Gaultier 

2.Spectacular Plum 

3.Brokers Prize

#8 GAULTIER tried to run the last without a jockey, but that's not entirely legal, so he takes another crack at things today, and this one is 4:1-1-0-1 in second off the layoff attempts. Much better suited for the turf as well. #6 SPECTACULAR PLUM hasn't been in action in more than the length of a calendar, but five year old completed the tri in his last start off the bench, and has done some decent work on the gramma. Up for sale today, and recognize this one's 10:3-0-3-1 mark when available for purchase, compared to a 9:0-0-0-1 mark otherwise. #3 BROKERS PRIZE completed the exacta the lone time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and may spice things up beneath. OFF TURF: 2-7-9-6-14(MTO)  

 

Race  3

1.Arima

2.Primacy

3.Venus Oyzo

#7 ARIMA has gone 18-54-55 in her three starts over a glib surface, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Gal completed the triple in her lone start off an absence when breaking from the outside, ( earning her best wet track number to date ), and 5% St. Lewis is nicely backed by a solid DRF Formulator stat. Over the last 60 months, this barn owns a sweet 6:3-2-0 mark with maiden special weight dirt stock in the 51-104 day bracket ( 21-1 or less ) with mutuels of $9, $15 & $21. #1 PRIMACY has posted two solid figaros to date and will likely be a deserving favorite in this spot. #4 VENUS OYZO showed decent speed in the overture and gets a slight upgrade in the trainer department today.

 

Race  4 

1.Shandian ( AE )

2.World of Honor

3.Blessed Honour 

#14 SHANDIAN (AE) needs a couple to declare in order to make it over to the body of the race today, but should that come to fruition, will be bringing in a decent 4:M-1-2 record in turf sprints, and ( in our eyes ) would have an advantageous draw. #11 WORLD OF HONOR is a January foal facing some younger competitors for his initial foray and worked a bullet in the goo over the local training track eight days back. #3 BLESSED HONOUR has done very little to get the pulse racing to date, but gets in light & has occasionally displayed some zip on the gramma.  OFF TURF: 6-1-12-9-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:37, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Fleet Irish

2.Horoscope

3.Durkin's Call 

#9 FLEET IRISH ( scratched Thursday for this ) won by a mile in his lone start off a break, is 6:1-1-2 when breaking from the outside, and owns a 6:2-2-0 ledger right here at Big Sandy. Some things to like at 10-1. #1 HOROSCOPE ( one half of the uncoupled Cannizzo entry ) has a 2:1-0-0-1 mark off a break in the action and one of those tallies came when breaking from the pine. Carmouche will be gunning early, fer sure. #6 DURKIN'S CALL may plod along for a piece of pizza.

 

Race  6 

1.Bourbon Mission

2.Mission Command

3.Psychic Energy

#11 BOURBON MISSION has only beaten four home in his last troika, but doesn't appear to dig the goo, and was brushed at the start in the 11/30 deal. Bay gelding is one of three on the inner, and may surprise off the break. #1 MISSION COMMAND is 1 for 2 in turf starts off a break, and owns a win & a placing in as many calls to the post. Romero picked up his second win here the other day and we'll always look to include him at a price. #12 PSYCHIC ENERGY is 4:1-1-0-1 off a break and on the sod, and his finest work has come at this trip.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-8-9-3-2  NOTE: AS OF 12:38, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Tizlegal

2.Too Sexy

3.Windfall Profit

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get to 'em directly. #6 TIZLEGAL: Casse is as classy as Freddy Blassie with second off the layoff/second time routers who hit the board last time out, as he's 8:5-0-2 with that type ( $5 x 3, $7 & $9 ). #10 TOO SEXY: C-Squared is a jazzy 10:5-2-1-1 with maiden special weight turf stayers in the 68-76 day zip code ( $5, $14, $4, $8 & $6 ). #2 WINDFALL PROFIT: Shug is 6:2-2-0 with 2nd off the shelf turfers under these conditions ( $11 & $10 ).  OFF TURF: 7-9-10-11-1A

 

Race  8 

1.Anydayisherday

2.Ruvies In Time

3.Medellin

#11 ANYDAYISHERDAY finished 2nd in her only start off a break in the action ( over this strip ) and has a couple'a crisp breezes for today's return to action. Would love to see Cardenas employ the "Killer Crossover" on the backside. Mild choice in a tough race to decipher. #4 RUVIES IN TIME hasn't been in action for an entire calendar, but was a convincing $40 winner in her only try off an elongated absence, and has done fine work in Elmont. #1 MEDELLIN was extremely gutsy in going all the way right outta the box, and although the figure earned was extremely low, sometimes these youngsters can improve by leaps and bounds. 

 

Race  9 

1.Pink Sands

2.Blamed

3.She's a Julie

Today's featured event is named after Ogden Phipps, and for some history on this famous horseman, feel free to peruse this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ogden_Phipps .  #1 PINK SANDS got her photo taken in her only start off a L.O., has been ITM all five times right here, has a 6:1-2-2-0 boxscore when first to load, and Claude is a fat 7 for 13 with graded dirt stock at this trip in the 51-271 day range ( $4.13 ROI ); saves all the ground. #4 BLAMED has been alternating wins & losses over her last nonnet, but on the whole, do yo really need much reason to toss in a gal that's 13:9-2-0 on a fast track ( at 10-1, no less )? #3 SHE'S A JULIE has a nice overall body of work which includes a 4-10 record at his distance. 

 

Race  10

1.Wicked Title

2.Stormy Derby Day

3.Corey Scores

#1 WICKED TITLE spit the bit at the top of the lane in both turf spins last year, but in all fairness, they were against tougher, and we always give a runner two chances over a particular set of circumstances ( in this case, firm ground ), and the adjusted figaro from the September 29th affair wasn't half bad. #10 STORMY DERBY DAY went coast to coast like butter and toast down in Hallandale Beach about two months ago, and this one has improved with each start. We see no reason to exclude at double digit odds. #6 COREY SCORES rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 9-2-5-7-11 

 

Belmont          ( Current ):       6-71      ( $78.70 )   Beatable Favorites    0-4    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        20-71 ( 28.2% )( As of Saturday morning )


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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