SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 7/11 - Keeneland Stakes


Just a reminder that for today's full card selections & analysis for Belmont, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

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Graded Stakes - 7/11 - Keeneland Stakes


Race 5 - Madison 

1.Princess Causeway


3.Mia Mischief

#4 PRINCESS CAUSEWAY has been alternating losses and wins over her last septet, so today should be a score, right? If only the game was that simple. Prior to the flop in the Winning Colors, this miss had gone 49-74-86-91 in all her one turn affairs, so if you can see your way clear of the most recent, perhaps she's able to rebound at double digit odds ? We'll bite. #5 GUARANA is but a placing shy of a poyfect five for five mark, and that includes a win by a pole right here 15 months back. Deserving favorite. #7 MIA MISCHIEF has that quintessentially perfect "declining" mark which we dig so much ( 22:10-6-2 ) as it tells us she has a nose for the line. Fun horse to root for.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @YonkersRaceway , @BataviaBets & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in R5 at @keenelandracing , #6 will be our 3rd selection.


Race 7 -  Ashland


2.Venetian Harbor


#4 ENVOUTANTE has gone 76-83-86 in her three dirt attempts, so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards? We always pay attention when a runner improves in the speed figure department while stepping up in class, and that's what this gal accomplished in the most recent ( her first pairing with Jose ). We love the versatility shown by being able to send or rate, and 2 for 2 mark going two turns adds to the allure. #2 VENETIAN HARBOR was a gamely & well clear runner up in front of a next out winner in her lone start off an absence, and you simply can't deny the overall body of work. #6 SPEECH ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has yet to finish off the board, and who are we to rock that boat? 


Race 8 - Jenny Wiley

1.La Signare ( Fr )

2.Rushing Fall

3.Jolie Olimpica

You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the quartet of the 2020 starts for #3 LA SIGNARE (FR), as this lady has steadily ( from a Beyer perspective ) improved w/each and every one of them. Bay mare finished with a flourish to complete the exacta at 21-1 beneath the Twin Spires at the end of May, and has a big shot if there's any pace to cut into. #4 RUSHING FALL is 4 for 5 in Lexington, 3 for 4 at the trip, 2 for 3 in second off the L/O tries, and makes all kinds of sense. #6 JOLI OLIMPICA (BRZ) is but a half length short of owning an unblemished 5 for 5 mark and should be right there at the end.  OFF TURF: 4-6-5-3-7


Race 9 - Blue Grass


2.Swiss Skydiver


#13 TIESTO has yet to go over the brown stuff in the afternoon, but is a bit better bred for it than the blades, and his turf form ( 3:1-1-1 over firm ground ) ain't half bad. Mott's not about to do anything to embarrass himself, and although the post smells like a wet dog, we'll swing away at a big number. #7 SWISS SKYDIVER has really figured things out since stretching out to two turns ( 4:3-0-1 with some strong figaros ), and although she's up against the boys here, it's not the strongest collection of three year olds in the world, and the race goes through her. We were extremely impressed with #8 BASIN when he chased throughout in finishing a game runner up behind Charlatan, who -- trained by Bob Baffert -- was found with an illegal substance in his system in the post race blood work. Colt put forth a game showing behind Nadal in his lone try off an elongated break and must be left in the hopper. 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout