SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/14


Took the duck yesterday.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #4 Ocean Fire

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/14


Race  1

1.Drop of Bourbon


3.Lightning Rob

#2 DROP OF BOURBON has shown little in both starts to date, but part of that can be attributed to some tardy onsets, and with the bug climbing on today, perhaps this one breaks a bit more swiftly. Giving this one another shot going over firm ground for just the second time. #5 SEEDISKID hasn't displayed much ability in either turf outing, but note that they were directly before and after a layoff, so perhaps something went amiss in the former and maybe he wasn't fully cranked for the latter. Five year old has outrun his odds in closing out the superfecta in four straight, and may surprise here. #1 LIGHTNING ROB was a well beaten but dead clear runner up just in front of a next out winner in the lone try off a break, and may sit a nice pocket trip.  OFF TURF: 6-3-1-7-8  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @capitalotb & @YonkersRaceway READERS: Due to a gate scratch in R1, #4 will be our 3rd selection.


Race  2


2.Offlee Irish

3.Princess Mikayah

#9 WHYISSHESOOLUCKY beat only one home when last in action at the end of February, but the start just before that yielded a career best wet track number, and the start just before THAT yielded a career best fast track number. Big time shot at a big time price if you can forgive the pre-layoff deal. #6 OFFLEE IRISH closed out the superfecta at 24-1 in her only dirt try after an absence and brings a bullet breeze in tow for today's return. #7 PRINCESS MIKAYAH makes her 2nd start off the shelf this afternoon, and has done his best work right here ( 2-14 ) compared to elsewhere ( 1-26 ).


Race  3

1.Linny Kate

2.Love Beach

3.Cat's Pajamas 

#1 LINNY KATE got the job done from the 11 hole first time out down in Hallandale Beach, and six returnees from that affair have amassed a cumulative 6:2-2-1 mark in their subsequent outings ( from five different heats ). There was an average Beyer improvement of 3.2 points for that allotment, and we have a nice DRF Formulator stat in play here as well. Over the last five years, Brown is 7-17 with 2TS'ers who won their maiden race 68-152 days back, & are now in a turf route at 7-1 or less ( sub category of 3-6 w/allowance types ). #2 LOVE BEACH hasn't been in action since the fall, but was doing okay work back then & is an obvious factor if fully cranked up. #5 CAT'S PAJAMAS took to the turf like a Toro lawnmower in procuring the sheepskin a month ago, and although she outran her pedigree a bit that day, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-7-6


Race  4 

1.Simply Miss Red

2.Tourbillon Rose

3.Ocean Fire

These three and no more for all our rolling action...  #3 SIMPLY MISS RED hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but showed some improvement from the first start to the second, and recognize that the adjusted figaro from the overture was a 70.6 ( against tougher ). #2 TOURBILLON ROSE has beaten home only one in three calls to the post, but we'll chunk in as the paternal granddam was 16:5-4-3 going over the blades, banking nearly 400K. BEATABLE FAVORITE/3RD CHOICE: #4 OCEAN FIRE has the best overall body of work in the field, but is beginning to look like that kind of a maiden, and Kimmel is oh-fer-14 when getting handed a horse and spotting them on the sod.  OFF TURF: 7-1-5-14(MTO)-2


Race  5

1.Barbara P

2.Our Ticket

3.Moon Over Victoria

#1 BARBARA P split the field at 43-1 in her lone try off a break in the action, and although we haven't been enamored with Harkie of late, he's come through with a couple of high priced winners for u#5 s, so we'll use & hope he can save all the ground. Meeeeeeeek selection in a race that's difficult to hug. #5 OUR TICKET showed some early speed before folding up the tent in the comebacker, but may move forward with that one under her girthstrap. #8 MOON OVER VITORIA has a 3:1-1-0 ledger in "2md off the L/O" attempts and may spice things up beneath.   


Race  6 

1.Bad Guy


3.Ian Glass

#1 BAD GUY was last seen earning a lifetime best # when defeating weaker over in Ozone Park, and if you prorate that to his best figure on the sod ( where he is historically better ), then you have the makings of a gelding with an honest shot -- at an honest offering. #3 RIENDO had posted six straight speed figures in the 70's before being laid up back in October, and the pre-layoff jock returns, which we always like ( despite his frigid start to the stand ). #5 IAN GLASS completed the triple in his only start off a respite, and it's good to see this one protected against the claim after being purchased last time out.  OFF TURF: 5-9-1-7-8  NOTE: AS OF 10:54 A.M., DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1X WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  7

1.Liam's Boy

2.Perfect Banker

3.Constant Quest

#12 LIAM'S BOY broke tardily from the pine first time out, and that's often a death knell for the youngsters, so we can draw a line through that one. Grey gelding goes inside to outside today ( an angle we always love with second time starters ), and has blinkers added, as well ( which may improve his focus, judging by the zippy morning moves ). That last part is of some pertinence, as Hills is a nice 2 for 9 when doing such to his turfers at 30-1 or less ( < 130 days ), with mutuels of $13 & $33. Paternal granddam never went over the blades, but was 3:1-1-1 on synthetic, and the maternal granddam was 3:1-1-0 on the green stuff. Play of the day. #1 PERFECT BANKER has been MIA for quite some time, but is another having eye cups affixed today, and there's a nicely hidden 2nd best of 106 breeze back on the 6th of May, which was likely with the new gear. #9 CONSTANT QUEST is slightly better bred for the green than teh brown and may perk up a bit.  OFF TURF: 8-5-4-3-14(AE)


Race  8 

1.Indy's Lady

2.Honor Way

3.Finding Fame

#4 INDY'S LADY has only bested two in her last three outings going back 16 months, but 'Miah is a fat 5 of 7 with locally based optional dirt fillies in the 51-271 day zip code ( $6 x 3, $7 & $15 ). #6 HONOR WAY: Charlie Baker nearly doubles his normative 18% win rate ( 2 for 6 ) with BEL runners fitting these conditions off absences of 51-134 days ( 20-1 or less ). #8 FINDING FAME ( who has fired off a bullet since winning her first two forays ) will be led over by a Hall of Famer who's won 5 of 11 starts with dirt stock who scored 51-78 days back & are 15-1 or beneath today ( $7, $5 x 2, $6 & $10 ). 


Race  9 

1.Mission Wrapitup

2.Three Jokers

3.Captain Bombastic

#1 MISSION WRAPITUP is a might lite from a BSF perspective, but has been switched from one Brown to another ( "Why do I have to be Mr. Brown?" ), and the new one is 6 for 10 when getting a runner and placing them in a dirt dash in this odds range ( 51-175 days ). The winners returned $7, $6, $3 x 2 & $4 x 2, and pre-break jock comes back. #8 THREE JOKERS is backed by a 4 for 7 Formulator stat which has Terranova at just that with his ungraded dirt horsies in the 51-371 day area @ 18-1 or undah, and all paid healthily. #6 CAPTAIN BOMBASTIC has a stat that's "fahntastic" behind him, as J. Englehart is a tight 3 for 4 with runners of this ilk off sabbaticals of 51-77 days ( 13-1 and < ), w/payouts of $7 x 2 & $18. Smooooth.....


Race  10

1.Big Wonder

2.My Amanjena

3.Fleet Admiral

If you can forgive the pre & post layoff running lines of the #5 BIG WONDER ( especially as he's much better on the verde ), than what you're looking at is an adj. figure of 87.4 in a turf deal over firm ground ( against much tougher ). That race cam WITH blinkers, which are now re-affixed. Now him early & have the Pepto handy late. #10 MY AMANJENA is 1 for 3 here ( 0-15 elsewhere ) and gets in light for his first "First off the layoff" go round. #11 FLEET ADMIRAL as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-4-3-7-8 


Belmont          ( Current ):       6-81      ( $78.70 )   Beatable Favorites    0-4    ( 0.0% )     Favorites Win %        24-81 ( 29.6% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout