SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/18



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #2 Spitball  Race 7 - #1 It's All Relevant  Race 10 - #6 Abby Normal

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/18


Race  1



3.Love on the Run

Backers of the #4 in the Hallandale bow were anything but THANKFUL when Looie took his miss on the overland route at 9-2, while finishing up the track. Three year old is a touch better bred for the dirt than the turf, so we're expecting some improvement this afternoon, especially when you see that The Toddster is 3 for 6 when cutting back his second time starters for those who missed the $ last time out ( T to D ), w/mutuels of $9, $7 & $8. #1 SNEER showed nothing in the Gulfstream goo last time out, but posted a career best numero just prior to that ( when well clear of the show horse ), and Johnny V. ( nice day here on Sunday ) gets the assignment. #3 LOVE ON THE RUN has a bevy of nice morning moves for today's overture, and that includes a bullet breeze outta the gate ( which always merits inclusion ). 


Race  2


2.Luxury Suite

3.Prince of New York

#8 SMIDGE got smacked around a bit at the onset of the comebacker, and essentially had no chance when factoring that in with being marooned. Gelding had shown improvement over four straight pripr to being shelved, and the last of that quartet is comparable to several signed on. Price play in his first "second off the L/O" attempt. #1 LUXURY SUITE finds himself at an all time low today, and Rosario sticks around despite the recent disappointment. #3 PRINCE OF NEW YORK was a dead game $23 victor in his lone dirt try off an absence, and as this one's numbers for the brown stuff are 39-57-66, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards.


Race  3

1.Jill's a Hot Mess

2.Make Mischief


#3 JILL'S A HOT MESS showed some early hoof first time out, and has since been transferred over to the Atras barn. That last part is of some relevance, as aforementioned shotcaller is three of seven when getting a horse who missed the money < 40 days ago and tossing them on the dirt ( $3, $9 & $10 ). #6 MAKE MISCHIEF has been performing exceptionally well in the A.M.'s for today's initial spin, and $285,000 'Toga purchase brings along a healthy Tomlinson figure of 413. #7 SHESADIRTYDANCER gets in light & is as good as any for the show dough.


Race  4 

1.Chief Know It All

2.Proud Enough

3.Neighborhood Bully

#1 CHIEF KNOW IT ALL will try to cross the line first today ( was disqualified from first place money two back ), and we like how this one is protected against the purchase this afternoon. Game gelding is 5:3-0-2 off a break in the action and drops weight off a score -- which is something we always like. #2 PROUD ENOUGH is one of five in 2nd off the bench attempts ( 2-36 otherwise ) and may last for a share @ a big number. #7 NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY bested half the field at 71-1 in the return engagement and the adjusted number from that day is decent enough to make him a fringe player vs. these. 


Race  5

1.Variant Perception

2.Jerome Avenue

3.Irish Roar ( Ire ) 

#10 VARIANT PERCEPTION is 4:1-0-1-1 in turf tries off of a respite, and you can feel free to draw a line through the last duet of one's P.P.'s, as he's historically better on the green than the brown. Meeeeekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #3 JEROME AVENUE was claimed by Bruce Brown for $35,000, claimed from him for $25,000, then re-claimed by him for $35,000, so obviously he digs the animal. Another one taking advantage of the NYRA rule protecting returnees from being snagged for a start after the hiatus. #8 IRISH ROAR (IRE) has hit the board in both starts off a break and both starts on the lawn ( all sui generis starts ). That's reason enough to include.  OFF TURF: 3-12(MTO)-8-5(MTO)-9


Race  6 

1.Mucho Sunshine 



#11 MUCHO SUNSHINE was last seen trying to run without the jockey on New Year's Eve Eve, but that's not entirely legal, and now picks up a rider who helped him outrun his 81-1 odds in a fourth place finish. Four year old goes over the blades for the first time, but the paternal granddam was 7:2-2-1 on the stuff, and we'll swing away at big number in a very forgettable race. #10 SHANDIAN has hit the board in three of five turf starts and recently fired off a best of 45 workout over the training track; Cancel with a nice day here on Sunday. #3 QUID finished 2nd the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and it's worth noting that 7 of 17 returnees from the last two heats came back to win in their followup engagements ( from 16 different outings ).  OFF TURF: 4-5-3-10-11  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SPITBALL doesn't make our first cut so why would we take 7/2?


Race  7

1.Proven Reserves

2.I Love Jaxson


#4 PROVEN RESERVES is 3:1-0-1-1 off a L/O, and barn has a crisp 9:4-0-2-3 ledger with locally based runners at this level. Pre-layoff Franco comes back. #6 I LOVE JAXSON has won 5 of 6 with two of those tallies coming right here in Elmont. #3 PRIORITIZE won his only dirt spin off a break in the action and is but a neck shy of a 2 fer 2 mark on the sand; logical.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 IT'S ALL RELEVANT will be led over by a trainer who's oh-fer-17 qith optional Belmont dirt stock off breaks of 51-167 days.


Race  8 

1.Morning Colors


3.Diamond N Simon

#1 MORNING COLORS got the job done at first asking down at Oldsmar a bit over three months ago, and the 2nd & 3rd place finishers from that day go their respective photos taken next time out, improving in the speed figure department by an avg. of 4.5 points. Over the last 1,826 days, C-Squared won with half of his six maiden winners going long for the second time on the gramma ( 68-140 days ) w/mutuels of $7 x 2 & $10. #10 AMOS got the job done in her lone "second try off a break" and hasn't disgraced herself on the turf so far. #8 DIAMOND N SIMON goes over the green stuff for just the 2nd time in this spot, and brings along a sizzling move for today's return to action.  OFF TURF: 5-9-1-6-10


Race  9 

1.More Mischief

2.The Great Johanna

3.No Hayne No Gayne

#5 MORE MISCHIEF has that sort of "declining" mark that we love to see ( 9:4-2-1 ) as it shows that he has a schnoz for the finish line. Four year old has won both starts at this dx., and shedrow is 4-7 with ungraded dirt dashers in the 51-211 day bracket ( positive return on investment ) and there's a sub category of two for two at BEL. Jimmy Ferraro has done an exceptional job with #6 THE GREAT JOHANNA, as he's conditioned this $3,000 bred animal to a cumulative 15:4-5-3 boxscore ( 231 large ) as they now look to get this one some black type. Mare got the job done the only time she started from the outermost two slots, so we'll chunk beneath at double digit odds. #3 MO HAYNE NO GAYNE is 5:2-1-1 off a hibernation, and The As-Man popped with a bomber here on Saturday afternoon


Race  10

1.Devils Rendezvous



We don't have a really good read on this race so tread lightly.  #11 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS hasn't seen the scene since Hector was a pup, but flashed some speed in the lone turf attempt and takes the biggest drop in the game today. #4 MENZAMENZ is another who was on the front end for a while in her only sod start, but understandably spit the bit early on, as it was her first try in quite some time. We'll permit another shot, but demand value. #2 PIPPI ( a half to a 3 for 17 turf sprinter ) closes out the tri.  OFF TURF:  3-11-7-10-16(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 ABBY NORMAL fills the bill as Donk is 1-10 in all relevant categories.


Belmont          ( Current ):       6-91      ( $78.70 )   Beatable Favorites    1-5   ( 20.0% )     Favorites Win %        26-91 ( 28.6% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout