SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/19
  
  

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Definitely no denying we're in a bit of a slump here, but with our style of handicapping over the last 6 1/2 years we're prone to the occasional cold streak, along with some hot ones as well. Seven winning favorites didn't aid the cause, but you know what they say about excuses...

We forge onward !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #3 Leitone ( Chi )


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/19

 

Race  1

1.Tom's Choice

2.Ocala's Dream

3.Quick Nick

#1 TOM'S CHOICE & #3 OCALA'S DREAM are both backed by identical DRF Formulator stats which has 12% Morley clicking at a 2 for 7 rate ( $11 & $28 ) with those fitting all these exact parameters. We'll side with the former because of the better jockey/trainer combo, as well as the fact that he bested his barnmate by a full second in one of their two breezes in tandem ( tied in the other one ). Mild edge in a wide open opener. #8 QUICK NICK went for more than six times the stud fee at auction up at The Spa last summer, and not only brings in some nice morning moves for today's overture, but a healthy Tomlinson figure of 385 as well.  NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR THIRD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Coilean Bawn

2.All Others Follow ( GB )

3.Cherokee Song

#4 COILEAN BAWN completed the tri directly behind a next out winner in her only "true" start off a break ( at 10-1 ), and has lost by less than a length in her lone duet right here -- posting her two best numbers to date. C-Squared triples his normative 19% batting average ( 4-7 ) with locally based maiden special weight turf stayers in the 58-348 day zip code ( $6, $10, $4 & $9 ). #2 ALL OTHERS FOLLOW rallied nicely to secure the show dough first time out down in Oldsmar, and the place horse from that afternoon got her Polaroid taken next out. Pedigree suggests there may be a touch of room for improvement, and Manny Man climbs aboard. #3 CHEROKEE SONG has hit the board in all four turf tries to date and totes her lightest impost to date.  OFF TURF: 1-6-2-4-7  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Other Things Equal

2.Bears Mafia

3.Fleet Warrior

#7 OTHER THINGS EQUAL bested more than half the field in his lone try off an absence, ( in race where an amazing five of nine comebackers finished first in their subsequent outings, in just eight different heats ) and gelding is now dropped a bunch after being claimed for a quarter on New Year's Eve. The As-Man ( 20% day to day ) has won with a third of his dozen "second off the claim" dirt dashers at this level ( 51-206 days ), beneath the 10-1 watermark ( $3, $5 & $4 x 2 ). #9 BEARS MAFIA completed the triple in his lone "3rd off the shelf" attempt and finds himself at an all time low. #2 FLEET WARRIOR rounds out the top three. 

 

Race  4 

1.Shadow Rider

2.Hoffenheim

3.Autostrade

#1 SHADOW RIDER owns a 5:1-1-1-2 mark in his 1X dirt tries off a L/O, is on a 7:2-2-3 run when available for purchase, and has done decent work when beginning from the inside. Slightest of selections in a race with no first draft tosses. #6 HOFFENHEIM has a touch of back class & is 1 for 4 off a respite. #7 AUTOSTRADE owns a win & showing from as many starts after a hiatus and completed the triple in his only outing when beginning from the outside. Claim protected today.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 LEITONE (CHI) fills the bill, as barn is 0-7 in all relevant categories.

 

Race  5

1.Shanny Go Nanny

2.Yellen

3.Morality Clause 

#9 SHANNY GO NANNY has a couple of honest morning moves on display for today's initial spin, totes along a decent Tommy of 382, and was dropped by a gal who was 4 fer 10 in dirt dashes, banking more than 200 large. Additionally, Martin charge is a half to Dynamic Impact, who went 4 fer 18 lifetime, earning $421,006. Would like to see the bug have this one hustling early. #4 YELLEN is a $60,000 auction purchase who ( after factoring in approximately $40,000 in expenses since then ) has earned only about a third of that back so far. A win and a claim would only be just a breakeven point for those involved, hence the drop in for 40K today. #6 MORALITY CLAUSE hasn't been seen since the end of last summer, but owns a few decent running lines and we'll toss into the mix.  OFF TURF: 9-11-5-6-12  NOTE: AS OF 12:21, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Jump For Joy

2.Tropical Joy

3.Miss Jak

#5 JUMP FOR JOY has completed the exacta in her troika of outings after a hibernation, has consistently partaken in the superfecta over his last nonnet with a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump, and secures a heating up Jose Ortiz. Tepid choice. #8 TROPICAL JOY is a fringe player by rote, but has a tidy 4:1-2-1 record in the claiming ranks and is in possession of some early hoof. #6 MISS JAK has crashed the fiesta in both forays after an absence, and has done her best work at this dx., as the 4 for 9 ledger can attest to. 

 

Race  7

1.Short Pour

2.First Appeal

3.Awillaway

#12 SHORT POUR encountered a bit of trouble when losing by only two lengths in her lone try off a hiatus, and as this miss has gone 55-58-60-71 in her quartet of turf dashes to date, who quite knows where her ceiling is in that regards. #8 FIRST APPEAL hasn't been in action since November, but crossed the line first in her only try off an elongated absence, is 4:1-1-1 on this course, and has done some decent things when in tandem with today's pilot. #6 AWILLAWAY collected the lion's share of the purse the lone time she faced the starter off a layoff line, and pre-break jockey returns, which is something we always like to see.  OFF TURF: 11-7-6-2(MTO)-3

 

Race  8 

1.Castle Casanova

2.Kazmania

3.Nueva York

#7 CASTLE CASANOVA has been a part of the super in all his starts but one, and that includes a win in the lone visit to Elmont. 'Miah charge has been working very well for today's comeback attempt, and there's a solid Formulator stat in play, as the aforementioned shotcaller is 4 fer 7 with runners fitting this criteria off breaks of 51-166 days ( 41-1 or < ). The payoffs for that study came back $15 x $6 x 3 ( with a sub category of 1-1 with Franco ). #8 KAZMANIA owns a win & a showing from as many trips to the frontside after being MIA, and has blinks added today. #4 NUEVA YORK has a 2:1-0-0-1 boxscore in comebackers and was definitely heading in the right direction before the shutdown. 

 

Race  9 

1.Guildsman ( Fr )

2.Maxwell Esquire

3.Chimney Rock 

#4 GUILDSMAN (FR) encountered a bit of trouble in both North American starts to date, but overcame them to pick up 10% of the purse money down south. That being said, there's a fantastic trainer stat in play here, as Walsh is a poyfect 6 of 6 with 3rd off the L/O ungraded turfers who hit the board last time out & are 23-1 or undah today ( 15 days or more ). The mutuels for that survey were a healthy $5, $13, $6, $22, $8 & $13, and good to see Looie back aboard. You can fee free to draw an upwards arrow nest to the speed figures of #1 MAXWELL ESQUIRE, as this one has essentially gotten better with each passing start, and may surprise at 10-1 today for the 2nd off the layoff/2nd time Lasix deal. #7 CHIMNEY ROCK is the clear class of this allotment and must be included.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4-3-5

 

Race  10

1.She's Euphoric ( AE )

2.Courted

3.Topaz Bride

#14 SHE'S EUPHORIC (AE) needs a couple to declare in order to see some action this afternoon, but should that be the case, will be bringing along an adjusted figaro of 50.1 from the last turf jammie down in Tampa ( which would fit with many signed on ) and is reunited with the eye cups, which were part of the makeup that day. From an itsy bitsy sampling, Maymo has won with both of his turf starters in the 58-178 day zip code, w/payouts of $69 & $7. #4 COURTED has blinks added for the first time, and they were likely on the noggin' for that blistering 47 & 2 bullet back on Sunday. #10 TOPAZ BRIDE has been beset by back to back layoff lines after as many calls to the post, but takes the biggest plunge in the biz here, and Saez was astride for the nice debut way back when.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-2-11-12-16(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:25, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION. 


Belmont          ( Current ):       6-101      ( $78.70 ) Beatable Favorites    3-8   ( 37.5% )     Favorites Win %      33-101 ( 32.7% )( As of Friday morning )  


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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