SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/21


Nice day for us here on so many levels, as first and foremost, we're very happy for Jack Knowlton and all the connections of Tiz the Law on a picture perfect Belmont Stakes win. Let's get a few more before the year is out !

As for us, we broke even with three winners, but had the ice cold $200 triple in the big race, and had three placings as well, so hopefully we're heating up. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/21


Race  1

1.Chasing Losses



#11 CHASING LOSSES dropped and popped when last seen back in March, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all her efforts. The good news is that new shotcaller ( 13% on the norm ) is 8:2-1-2-1 when getting new stock and spotting them in a turf dash off breaks of 58-154 days ( 21-1 or less ) with payouts of $10 & $34. Slight edge in an opener that leaves a bit to be desired. #10 TRADEABLE ( cross entered yesterday, so check the changes ) has an okay overall body of work and is reacquainted with blinkers today. #12 HEARTSTRINGS is one for three in turf dashes and new pilot came in with a bomber on Friday.  OFF TURF: 4-9(MTO )-2-3(MTO)-5


Race  2




Both the #2 COPLEY and #3 RODERICK ( uncoupled entrymates from the Ward barn ) are backed by identical DRF Formulator stats which has this barn at 14:6-3-1, $3.13 R.O.I.  with firsters fitting ALL these exact criteria ( any age/sex/jock ), We'll side with the former, however, as he has a three month maturity advantage over the latter, and there's a sub category of 1-1 with Jose in the stirrups. #5 WINFROMWITHIN has been performing decently in the A.M. for today's bow, and The Toddster clicks at a 33% rate with those under identical circumstances. Only drawback is that this $175,000 bred animal went for just 100K at auction, so try to take a peek during the warmups.


Race  3

1.Seeking Revenge

2.Blame Debbie


We have three decent sets of trainer stats in play here, so let's get to 'em directly.  #7 SEEKING REVENGE will be looking to do that after getting trounced in the comebacker last time out, and that came after winning her last two races of 2019. Stephens has gone 8:3-1-2 with turf stayers who finished off the board 45-67 days back and are 60-1 or beneath ( $20, $15 & $4 ) w/a sub category of 1-1 in allowance races. #3 BLAME DEBBIE will be led over by a 16% trainer who just about doubles that rate ( 13:4-0-3-1 ) with allowance turf routers in the 68-140 day bracket at 16-1 or beneath ( $5 x 2, $7 & $9 ). #6 WHATDOESASHARKSAY: Toner 2 of 10 with those going long on the lawn off hibernations of 68-114 days ( 12-1 or < ).  OFF TURF: 3-2-1-5-4


Race  4 


2.Charge Ahead 

3.Dublin Green

#2 MORETHANSTRIKING has never been entered this cheaply and owns a 1 for 4 record on the gramma. Meekest of choices in a race with no first draft eliminations. #8 CHARGE AHEAD was a lively runner up directly in front of a next out winner in his lone "second off the L/O" attempt, and it's encouraging to see Junior stick around despite the recent disappointments. #5 DUBLIN GREEN has been working quite well for today's return to action and is 1 for 2 @ the distance. 


Race  5

1.Jake Rocks 

2.Mad Munnys


#8 JAKE ROCKS is reunited with David Donk this afternoon, and they did some nice work together last year ringing up a 2:1-0-1 mark. The aforementioned score came at this trip, and J. Ortiz has done quite well when riding for this outfit. #4 MAD MUNNYS didn't disgrace himself in the return engagement, flashing a bit of early hoof when being half the field at nearly 40-1. Five year old eligible to move up off that effort. #6 CUCINA got his photograph taken in his lone "2nd off the shelf" attempt, and Mott runner owns a touch of back class.  OFF TURF: 3-4-6-1-2


Race  6 



3.Lovely Lucky

#3 SENGEKONTACKET has yet to miss a superfecta and takes the biggest drop in the game for Cox ( dig it ) who is a tidy 2-3  when putting his runners on the sod for the 1st time a 16-1 or less ( 58-90 days ). #1 TILSA was an honest runner up in the Oldsmar, Fla. overture about seven weeks back, and has been working quite well since. Johnny V. hops on & he's done some nice things for this clan in the past. #2 LOVELY LUCKY outran her odds in a big way when closing out the super at 71-1 down in Hallandale Beach in a career best performance, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 9-1-3-5-2


Race  7


2.Stunning Munnings


#7 MOSIENKO was quite disappointing in the first start off the bench, but we'll give her a chance to make amends, as Nevin ( 17% when waking up in the morning ) is a robust 8-20 with mid level dirt stock who missed the money less than two fortnights back at 16-1 or undah; filly totes the lightest impost of her career. #3 STUNNING MUNNINGS was a dead game runner up in her lone try after a respite, and that came right here at Big Sandy. Good guy David Duggan has won with half his six starts under these conditions ( 51-171 days ) with mutuels of $8, $11 & $4. #8 WEDONTBELIEVEHER has hit the board in four straight & is a deserving favorite. 


Race  8 

1.Lady Fatima 

2.Call On Mischief 

3.Miss J McKay

#8 LADY FATIMA has won her last two outings outside of stakes company, and Casse is in possession of a sweet 13:5-0-3-2 ledger with ungraded turf dashers in the 68-368 day zip code, with very healthy returns of $4, $23, $5, $11 & $13. #3 CALL ON MISCHIEF is an extremely consistent sort who has shown the ability to send or rate a bit. Not quite sure why she's 10-1 here, but take it if you can get it. #11 MISS J MCKAY ( possibly named in honor of the famed horse racing commentator, Jim McKay? ) has yet to miss an exacta and that's reason enough to include.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-6-11


Race  9 


2.True Palace 

3.Hurricane Andrew 

#8 BRICCO is a homebred by Bond who gave a  good account of himself when beginning his working life last fall, but received the unkindest cut of all afterwards, having been gelded. Trainer has won with four of eight maiden claiming turf routers off hibernations of 68 days or more ( 18-1 or less ) with payouts of $5, $7 x 2 & $8. Saez with a nice day here on Friday. #10 TRUE PALACE went 54-63 in the first two turf tries to his career, so who quite knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Jockey has been just terrible of late, but this one has a chance to surprise at a big numero. #9 HURRICANE ANDREW wraps up the week.  OFF TURF: 2-7-8-5-12 

Belmont          ( Current ):       10-123  ( $107.00 )  Beatable Favorites    3-10 ( 30.0% )    Favorites Win %      41-123 ( 33.3% )( As of Sunday morning ) 

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout