SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/25
  
  

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Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 Mental Model  Race 8 - #3 Casino Grande


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/25

 

Race  1

1.Dram Chasing

2.Gringotts

3.Graetz

#1 DREAM CHASING showed some nice improvement when switching over to the gramma back in the fall, and the pedigree tells us that it was likely legit. Pre-layoff Joel comes back, and not only does this one take the biggest drop in the game today, but gets the wonder drug for the 1st time as well. That last part is of some relevance, as C-Squared is a tight 3-8 with female turf sprinters getting the juice off breaks of 68-348 days ( $3, $6 & $7 ). #10 GRINGOTTS posted successive career best outings before the shutdown, and although the pedigree for the grass leaves a lot to be desired, we like that this one is getting a clear look from the outside for a change. #11 GRAETZ bested half the field in the comebacker and picks up a hot Saez.  OFF TURF: 9-2-4-6-3

 

Race  2

1.Our Stormin Norman

2.Implied Volatility

3.Inside Info

#10 OUR STORMIN NORMAN is a nibbler by rote ( 21:1-4-7 ) but we're assuaged by the fact that this 16% clan is a groovy 5 fer 9 with locally based mid level dirt stock who crashed the fiesta less than 44 days back @ 7-1 or less ( $6, $7, $9, $12 & $15 ). #4 IMPLIED VOLATILITY is properly spotted after breaking his maiden for a quarter back in March & owns a 2:1-1-0 mark at the distance. #7 INSIDE INFO returned off an elongated absence to grab the sheepskin a few weeks back and is an obvious factor once again.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MENTAL MODEL

 

Race  3

1.Carnegie Song 

2.Brunate

3.Mariner Qui

#7 CARNEGIE SONG hasn't done much to get the pulse racing thus far, but he more than outran the parimutuel offering when beating home half the field at 133-1 a bit over three weeks ago. Interesting DRF Formulator stat in play here, as Ryerson ( who normally has a 9% win rate & 35% ITM avg. ) is a sweet 10:3-3-3 with Elmont based  maiden claiming dirt animals off breaks of 43 days or lower ( 37-1 or < ). That study is for three year olds facing older, and note the trouble line from the most recent; we can only use Harkie at high odds these days. #11 BRUNATE is second off the bench today and owns a couple'a decent adj. figaros. #10 MARINER QUI showed a bit of early hoof in the return engagement, and Baker is 3 of 7 with runners of this ilk at 24-1 or lowah ( < 44 days ) w/healthy payoffs of $27, $15 & $8. 

 

Race  4 

1.King Bubble ( Ire )

2.Musical Heart

3.Noble Thought

#1 KING BUBBLE hasn't seen the scene in a couple of Halloweens, but has finished in the top four in both starts after a respite. Five year old undergoes some changes today ( loses his tes-tee-klees, adds Lasix, and toes an all time low in the weight department. Recognize the 5:3-1-1 mark on left handed turf courses. #2 MUSICAL HEART bested a troika of others by a pole in an off the turf jammie down at Hallandale Beach 39 days back, and is in receipt of a trainer/rider upgrade from that day. #4 NOBLE THOUGHT is a lively three for five in "3rd off the L/O" heats, and that's more than enough reason to chunk in.  OFF TURF: 2-5-1A-4-3  NOTE: AS OF 10:38, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Deja Raconte

2.Saratoga Love 

3.Sandra's Mine

#9 DEJA RACONTE has given up the ghost in every start thus far, but did some nice work in the two turf tries way back when, and Rudy Rod just about doubles his normative 19% batting average when going brown to green with his maiden claimers who missed the baccala less than three fortnights ( Russ' new favorite word ) ago & are 15-1 or below ( $17, $27 & $11 ).  My numbers guru tells me Reylu is on an oh-fer-46 mark, so demand value. #1 SARATOGA LOVE immolated some baccala when coming out of hibernation, so is now available for purchase for the first time. C-Squared does well with his turf sprinters taking this kind of drop ( 9-1 or beneath ), as he's won four of eight with that type ( $6 x 2, $3 & $7 ). #11 SANDRA'S MINE lost by less than two at 116-1 min her lone attempt after being away, and picks up J. Ortiz for her return to action.  OFF TURF: 1-6-5-8-7

 

Race  6 

1.Lem Me Have It

2.First Dawn

3.Ok Honey

#1 LEM ME HAVE IT was an honest and nicely clear runner up when last seen against slightly tougher back in early March, and chestnut gal got the job done in her only start when breaking from the pine as well. Factor in the affinity for today's dx., and you have the looks of a legit player. #6 FIRST DAWN has been a part of the triple in nine straight,,and what the hell's wrong with that? Sensible "unders" candidate. #9 OK HONEY is another nibblah who's as good as any for the show dough in a race that's very hard to hug. 

 

Race  7

1.Fast Getaway

2.Bourbon Mission 

3.Valmont

#4 FAST GETAWAY owns a 3:1-1-1 record when returning from a break in the action over firm ground, and lightly raced five year old has also done some nice work at this trip and over this course. Rice has been in the doldrums for quite some time now, so while we'll be using, it's with a touch of trepidation. #8 BOURBON MISSION was an open length winner in his lone second off the break go round, but as he hasn't finished better than 5th for quite a while, it would behoove you to take a gander pre race. #3 VALMONT owns a win & a fourth from as many retirns off a sabbatical ( on firm ground ) and got his photograph taken in his lone try on the inner turf course.  OFF TURF: 10-9(MTO)-11(MTO)-2-3

 

Race  8 

1.Sonneman

2.Prodigious Bay

3.Toy

Today's featured event is named after the Hall of Famer Easy Goer, and for your pleasure, we've enclosed some footage of the 1989 Belmont stakes when he got the best of Sunday Silence https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vivmOPtlaNw . #4 SONNEMAN came from out of Siberia to get the lion's share of the purse off a break down in Hallandale Beach ( his second straight tally ), and has since been handed over to The As Man. Colt has been performing admirably in the A.M.'s and perhaps that's done with some intent to keep him closer to the pace, so he's not at the mercy of slow splits. #5 PRODIGIOUS BAY goes 2X to 1X and his 5th different pilot in as many outings is a goodie in Joel. #6 TOY shoots foe the hat trick here, and it's definitely doable, given the comparable speed figs earned down in Maryland.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 CASINO GRANDE will be led over by a conditioner who's 0-7 with 2nd off the L/O ungraded dirt stock.  NOTE: AS OF 10:39, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Monificent

2.She's Euphoric 

3.Magnolia's Lady 

#11 MONIFICENT begins her working life today, and does such with a couple of nice workouts on display. Some square turf breeding is on display, and shotcaller not known for his prowess with turfers owns a snappy 5:3-1-0 boxscore w/female firsters going short on the soda 15-1 or below ( $20, $24 & $16 ). Always pay heed to when a rider like Johnny V. sticks around for the last race. #2 SHE'S EUPHORIC has some ugly running lines, but from a minuscule sampling, Maymo is 2-2 with turfers in the 58-178 day bracket ( $69 & $7 ). We'll incorporate at a price. #3 MAGNOLIA'S LADY overcame a bit of trouble to complete the triple at 11-1 first out, and can move up with a tidier sojourn.  OFF TURF: 11-5-12-3-1  NOTE: AS OF 10:40, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont          ( Current ):       11-132  ( $109.60 )  Beatable Favorites    3-10 ( 30.0% )    Favorites Win %      43-132 ( 32.6% )( As of Thursday morning ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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