SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/26
  
  

KevinCoxItem


Just a couple'a chalky winners, a cold $83 exacta, and a successful Beatable Favorite yesterday.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


of

Please visit the Old Friends website and consider helping out in these challenging times.

I want to thank those that read my column, and have recently opened up accounts as a result of their fondness for what they see here. If you have any questions at any time, you can reach me here on Disqus, or on Twitter @brooklyncowboy1. For those who dig the scene here, and would like to be part of it, registration on our home page is easy, and if you'd like, feel free to include my name in the referral box, and let me know, so I can try and get ya' some cool swag!


 

Belmont - 6/26

 

Race  1

1.Dr. Devera's Way 

2.Kadens Courage

3.Star of the West

#6 DR. DEVERA'S WAY came along nicely to complete the exacta at 19-1 in the comebacker, but the trainer may affix some glue in Hernandez' hands today, as he lost the whip last time out. Aside from that, Merthan is a square 4 for 16 with mid level dirt stock who crashed the fiesta off this type of layoff scenario while ITM as well ( 9-1 or less ). The ROI for that sampling is $2.60, and of course we like the draw. #3 KADENS COURAGE is a nibbler by rote ( 13:1-4-3 on the sand ) but unlike many in New York these days, makes his third start off the layoff today, and could spice things up a touch in this compact opener. #4 STAR OF THE WEST went coast to coast like butter and toast in his first try off of nearly the full length of the calendar, but is eligible to bounce as front wraps and blinkers were added that day.  NOTE: AS OF 11:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  2

1.Lost in Rome

2.Cobble Hill

3.Kilmarknock

#6 LOST IN ROME has improved with each passing start, and outran his odds when closing out the superfecta at 28-1 right here on the third of June. Gelding sheds a couple of pounds off that effort and rates the slimmest of margins in a race that's difficult to decipher. #3 COBBLE HILL took the overland route when grabbing second place money in the race listed above, and while this 4YO bounced in his lone try off a similar "2nd off the shelf" try, we'd be remiss in excluding. #1 KILMARKNOCK showed some decent early hoof in the return and deserves another shot.

 

Race  3

1.Sherkali ( Ire ) 

2.Gauguin ( Ger )

3.Kid Bourbon

#6 SHERKALI (IRE) is one for two off a break in the action, but Archie ain't messing around anymore, as he gave this one the unkindest cut of all after last seen down in Lexington. Don't underestimate these steeplechase trainers on the flat, as sometimes they can pop at decent offerings, and this chap has a nice 3-9 trainer stat behind him in all applicable categories. #2 GAUGUIN (GER) has hit the board in all six tries after a break in the action ( 10 for 15 otherwise ), but seven year old "horse" ( you hang on to those dangling participles, buddy boy ! ) has always been a bit camera shy, so we'll leave underneath. #3 KID BOURBON completes the Guinness/Bratwurst/Apple Pie tri based on his consistent body of work ( 8 of 8 in the superfecta ).  OFF TURF: 1A-4-5-3-2

 

Race  4 

1.Annie Rocks

2.First Appeal

3.Sanity

#2 ANNIE ROCKS hasn't been seen since the end of February, but the good news is that this gal has a 5:2-1-0-1 mark off the bench ( compared to 41:4-5-5 otherwise ) and has also partaken in the super in all four starts on the inner. Price play in a wide open affair. #3 FIRST APPEAL was an even 3rd in her return engagement & is 5:2-1-0 right here. Logical contender. #4 SANITY has been outrun in all three Hallandale Beach attempts, but takes a drop in class today and has excelled at this dx..  OFF TURF: 1-9-3-6-4

 

Race  5

1.Neighborhood Bully

2.Tale of Mist

3.Blinded Vision

#2 NEIGHBORHOOD BULLY has not been in the top three in any of the major points of call over his last septet, but is one for two in 3rd off the layoff scenarios, and 12% bossman doubles that batting average in relevant categories. Meeeeeekest of selections in a "Go walk the marmot" type of race. #7 TALE OF MIST has never seen these depths before, but best work has come right here in Elmont, as attested by that 15:3-3-4 local ledger, in comparison to a 29:1-5-9 record at other venues. #3 BLINDED VISION owns a 2:1-0-1 mark in second off the shelf forays, and has been ITM in his troika of forays in this neck of the woods.  NOTE: AS OF 11:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Operative

2.Barleewon

3.Aintitfunkynow

#7 OPERATIVE had zero impact when debuting about three weeks back, but we like that there's no scary drop on this $5,000 homebred, as Donk slaps on the blinkers in an effort to have this chap closer to the pace. #4 BARLEEWON has gotten better w/ each and every start, culminating with a game placing versus similar on the 4th of the month; Johnny V. gets the assignment. #10 AINTITFUNKYNOW was four lengths behind our secondary selection last out, and we'll slide him underneath that one once again.  OFF TURF: 9-11-7-2(MTO)-6

 

Race  7

1.The J Y 

2.Doups Point

3.Worth a Shot

#1 THE J Y is 2 for 3 in turf spins after a pause for the cause, ( with one of those tallies coming from the pine ) and is a delovely three fer four with the o' "For Sale" Sticker attached to his rump for the first time. Gelding has done fine work with Belmont Stakes winner, Manny Man in the stirrups, and Hennig is on the Mark with optional turf stayers in the 68-368 day zip code ( 14-1 or undah ) as he's a poyfect 3 of 3 in that regards ( $6 x 2 & $24 ). #5 DOUPS POINT was a lively runner up in his lone try off a hibernation, and handled himself nicely on the turf as a 2YO. #6 WORTH A SHOT finished second in both outings after an absence, and owns some nice tactical speed.  OFF TURF: 8-1-7-5-4

 

Race  8 

1.Kid Is Frosty

2.Hannah's Stone

3.Saratoga Treasure

#4 KID IS FROSTY has won her only start on the Widener, and the pilot from that score is aboard for today's comebacker. Chestnut filly has been conducting herself quite well in the mornings ( two bullets with the dogs up ), and Cox ( from a small survey ) is 5:2-2-0 with ungraded turf sprinters in the 58-398 day bracket ( $5 & $8 ). #1 HANNAH'S STONE is 3:1-1-1 in 2nd off the layoff attempts, 3-7 on this course and 4 fer 7 @ the trip. That's more than enough reason to chunk in. #7 SARATOGA TREASURE has the exact same L/O statistic as the runner listed directly above and is also 2:1-0-1 when last to load. Could pose a threat with some pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 5-2(MTO)-1-4-3

 

Race  9 

1.Lovely Escort 

2.Mopolka

3.City Bird Flying

#6 LOVELY ESCORT displayed little in the first start off an absence, but Jimmy's not known for having his stock fully cranked up after a respite ( or first time out, for that matter ) and we're assuaged by the fact that ( although just 7% day to day ) he's 5 for 24 ( 21% ) with 2nd off the L/O sprinters at 63-1 or less ( < 30 days ). #9 MOPOLKA posted a decent numero in her first start back and drops a few pegs while having eye cups added. #10 CITY BIRD FLYING was as green as grass first time out, but gets off the rail today and is now receiving the wonder drug for the first time.  


Belmont          ( Current ):       13-141  ( $122.50 )  Beatable Favorites    3-11 ( 27.3% )    Favorites Win %      46-141 ( 32.6% )( As of Friday morning ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


coxbel2019