SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/27
  
  

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Saratoga can't come fast enough !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s):  Race 1 - #2 Sun Summers


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/27

 

Race  1

1.Minit Maus

2.Sky Kitten

3.Positive Skew

#1 MINIT MAUS was a rank but lively runner up in this race a bit over three weeks ago, and did such at nearly 46-1 odds. Sciacca doesn't win much ( 8% ), but he's 4 for 15  w/ turf stayers who were ITM < 43 days ago & are up for sale today ( $17, $13, $24 & $21 ), and there's a sub category of 2-2 with second off the layoff type. #9 SKY KITTEN hasn't shown much over her recent troika, but owns some back class and is available for purchase for the 1st time this afternoon. Filly goes from apprentice to a red hot Luis Saez today, and that definitely shows trainer intent. #7 POSITIVE SKEW was as flat as a pancake in the most recent, but we'll give her one more shot for today's 3rd off the L/O attempt.  OFF TURF: 3-7-6-2-10(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 SUN SUMMERS will be led over by a shotcaller who's 1-11 in all applicable categories. 

 

Race  2

1.Foolish Ghost

2.O Shea Can U See

3.Horoscope

We have three decent sets of DRF Formulator stats in play here, so let's get to them directly.  #6 FOOLISH GHOST: ( One for two off the shelf going over a fast track ) is schooled by Falcone, who's won with 5 of 11 locally based mid level dirt stock who crashed the board< 16 days back ( 7-1 or under ). Barn has a positive ROI with that survey and runner goes from a bug it Irad. #1 OH SHEA CAN U SEE ( 1-3 in "2nd off the bench" attempts ) is backed by a 5:3-1-1 with runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 less than 46 days ago ( today's pilot ), with returns of $4, $6 & $8. #2 HOROSCOPE: Cannizzo owns a 10:3-2-3-1 ledger with Elmont based dirt runners at this level ( today's jockey ) off sabbaticals of two fortnights or lower ( $7, $11 & $42 ).

 

Race  3

1.Bourbon Currency

2.Big Wonder

3.Kumar

#8 BOURBON CURRENCY was all out to get up by a honker against platers three weeks ago, and has been very consistent of late, having partaken in the exacta in five straight. Slim margin. #4 BIG WONDER makes his fourth start in the last two dozen days ( what ? ), but has posted decent figs over the last duet, and I s'pose we're compelled to chunk in off the career best numero. #2 KUMAR got his Polaroid taken in the lone "second off the break" scenario, but wasted some White Castle money in the most recent. Incorporating, but 3-1 seems a mite low.  OFF TURF: 3-5(MTO)-2-10-8. 

 

Race  4 

1.Timely Tradition

2.Miss Lily B

3.Bertranda

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #3 TIMELY TRADITION was nicely spotted in a starter allowance down in Oaklawn, capping off the back to back jacks -- and doing it with a change of tactics being employed that day. Six year old mare has the sort of "declining" record at the dx. that we've grown to love ( 11:6-3-0 ) as it shows she has a nose for the line. No worse than 3rd for those looking to grind out a few bucks in the show pool. #6 MISS LILY B slightly tarnished her gleaming 9:5-4-0 mark when spitting the bit at The Spa last September, but deserves another shot if fully prepared for this. #7 BERTRANDA makes her 50th start today, and kudos to her in that regards, and you have to admire the grittiness displayed in her placing after coming back after here first ever respite.  NOTE: AS OF 12:51, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Your Awesome Boss

2.Farragut

3.Flying Finish

#7 YOUR AWESOME BOSS bested more than half the field first time out at 10-1 down in Hallandale Beach, but the speed figure from that day came back decently enough, and Pino has a nice 8:4-2-1-1 record with second time sand starters at this level ( $3.50 return on investment ). #2 FARRAGUT closed with a rush to pick up second place money in a blanket finish on the month, and while a bounce is always possible with a career best/first off the L/O try, it's sough to leave him out. #5 FLYING FINISH was a bit tardy to the party when beginning his working life at Gulfstream back in early May, and $300,000 auction purchase is eligible to move forward with a tidier onset. 

 

Race  6 

1.Monkeyseemonkeydo

2.Ima Pharoah

3.Propensity

#7 MONKEYSEEMONKEYDO put forth a lively showing directly behind a next out winner in his only 2nd off the layoff spot, and despite the ugly return on 6/5, we dig that M.M. is ( from an itty bitty sampling ) has won with two of three maiden special weight turfers cutting back ( OTB < 44 days back ), with payouts of $9 & $11. #6 IMA PHAROAH has immolated some baccala in his triad of outings to date, but switches over to the gramma today, and A.P. has been doing well in that regards early on. When it comes to spotting his runners of this sort on the sod for the first time ( ITM 13-58 days back at 7-2 or lowah ) T.P. rolls along to the tune of a 6-14 rate. #1 PROPENSITY has given up the ghost in each & every start to date, but has enough speed to land a share.  OFF TURF: 8-10-6-2-5

 

Race  7

1.Royal Charlotte

2.Come Dancing

3.Mother Mother

Today's first stakes race of the day is named after the Sunny Jim Fitzsimmons trained, Vagrancy, and for some info on that 1939 foal, feel free to go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vagrancy_(racehorse) .  #1 ROYAL CHARLOTTE has done very little wrong in eight starts to date ( which includes a win in an identical spot right here 51 weeks back ), and Brown is a near perfect 4 for 5 with BEL stabled 2nd off the shelf graded dirt sprinters who crashed the fiesta last out & are going off at 7-1 or less today. #5 COME DANCING is a sensational 4 for 4 off a break in dirt sprints, and what the hell's wrong with that? #2 MOTHER MOTHER rounds out the tri.  NOTE: AS OF 12:55, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Valiance

2.Call Me Love ( GB )

3.My Sister Nat ( Fr )

Draw a line through the 2020 bow of #5 VALIANCE, as he had a bit of an awkward beginning that day, and hadn't been in action for 10 1/2 months. Aside from that, this one is better suited for the green than the brown, and what's wrong with biting on an undefeated turf runner at 15-1 with Hall of Fame connections? #1 CALL ME LOVE (GB) has yet to finish put of the money, and that includes off the bench, on firm ground, in graded company and going left handed. With all those boxes checked, how do we leave out of the mix? #3 MY SISTER NAT (FR) completes the "Apple Pie/Tea & Biscuits/Escargot" tri, based on her two showings after a break in the action, as well as the fact that she's toting her lightest impost to date.  OFF TURF: 5-6-3-1-2

 

Race  9 

1.Midnightcharly

2.Wait for It 

3.Diamond King

As our favorite kind of race is a Grade One going seven panels, it's safe to assume that a G2 at 6 & a half is sexy for us as well ! This one -- the True North -- was won the most times ( amazingly so ) by Jean Luc Samyn !  That factoid ( and others ) about the event, can be found right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/True_North_Stakes .  #2 MIDNIGHTCHARLY is a touch light from a class perspective, but we like his gameness, as he's yet to miss the superfecta in 15 starts to date. Gelding finished 4 1/2 lengths behind Firenze Fire in their last matchup back in the fall, but was compelled to go extremely wide that day, and gets a bit off the wood here while in receipt of a modest two pound break in the weight department. Note the neck defeat/lifetime best # in his only start after a break in the action. #4 WAIT FOR IT has a 3:2-1-0 mark post-sabbatical, and has the ability to send or rate a bit. #1 DIAMOND KING goes outside to inside today & scored in his lone try @ the trip.   NOTE: AS OF 12:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  10

1.Regal Glory

2.Newspaperofrecord ( Ire )

3.Uni ( GB )

We really don't have the best of reads on this highly competitive feature, so tread lightly... #5 REGAL GLORY got the job done in "paid workout" fashion, when picking up the lion's share of a $200,000 Penn National pot in his only "second off the absence" spin last year, and brings along a local 2:1-1-0 mark right here as well. Gal sheds 64 oz. off the most recent, and Franco heating up a touch of late. #4 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD (IRE) has an excellent resume', but is 0-2 on firm ground, and one of those was off a similar L/O; using in the rollers, but leaving beneath at short odds. #7 UNI (GB) is four of four off a hibernation, two of two right here, and seven of eight going this dx. of ground. One part of the Chad Brown three headed monster, yada, yada, yada.  OFF TURF: 6-4-1-7-3

 

Race  11

1.Power Boss

2.Sandy Lane Kitten

3.Sir Chubby

#7 POWER BOSS has lost by an avg. of less than two lengths in both turf forays after being M.I.A., and spanking new trainer has popped with a couple of winners early on. Mild choice. #11 SANDY LANE KITTEN has been gelded since last in action while being switched over to a barn better known for their jumpers than anything else. That being said, it's a mistake to overlook them on the flat, and we'll use because of this one's decent effort off a layoff line. #6 SIR CHUBBY has been a part of the super in his last quartet ( and five of six ), & is a sensible inclusion.  OFF TURF: 11-12-13(AE)-8-9 


Belmont          ( Current ):       13-150  ( $122.50 )  Beatable Favorites    3-11 ( 27.3% )    Favorites Win %      52-150 ( 34.7% )( As of Saturday morning ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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