SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 6/28
  
  

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Off the schneid yesterday with a hat trick ( $5, $4 & $40 ), three cold exactas ( $4, $14 & $151 ), two cold quinellas ( $5 & $10 ), three rolling Doubles ( $18, $203 & $554 ), and two rolling Pick Threes ( $538 & $4,773 ).

As usual, thanks you to my loyal readers who "paid it forward" to Old Friends at Cabin Creek & the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance eith some of theuir winnings afterwards. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 6/28

 

Race  1

1.Danegeld

2.True  Grace

3.Liquor

#2 DANEGELD has completed the exacta in all three starts to date, and gets an appreciable rider upgrade from any of those heats. Sensible selection in a hum drum opener. #6 TRUE GRACE hasn't faced the starter since the first of December, but takes the biggest drop in the game today, and has lost his procreating abilities since last in action. Pre-layoff Rosario returns, which is encouraging. #5 LIQUOR was an honest enough 3rd in a strung out field back in March, and is another one taking the plunge for the former owner of the late Effinex; gets in light.   NOTE: AS OF 11:38 A.M., DUE TO ALL OF OUR SELECTIONS BEING SCRATCHED ( sweet fancy Moses  ), OUR SELECTIONS WILL BE 7-4-1.

 

Race  2

1.Swiping Dan

2.Deep Sea

3.Business Cycle

#6 SWIPING DAN has only beaten home four over his last quintet, so is now dropped for the 5th straight time. There are some positives here, as this one's best work has come at today's dx. ( 3 for 11, compared to 0-17 at other trips ), and is 4:1-0-2 in his second off the layoff tries ( the score was at 3-1, with the showings at 16-1 & 61-1 ). Only using Harkie at a zillion to one these days, as he appears lost out there at times. #1 DEEP SEA drops a peg in class off a solid last race numero, and brings in a 4:1-1-1-1 record in 2nd off the shelf dirt tries. Gelding has partaken in the exacta in half of his dozen spins at this dist., and chestnut chap should be coming late. #7 BUSINESS CYCLE completed the exacta in his lone "2nd off the L/O" go round, and digs it here, as the 3:2-0-1 local ledger belies. 

 

Race  3

1.Jazzique ( Ire )

2.Joyoius Times

3.Indochine

#1 JAZZIQUE (IRE) stepped forward nicely after the maiden breaker last summer, in completing the Miss Grillo triple on the inner, improving her Beyer by about 16% in the process. Three year old hasn't been seen since, but lands in a nice spot for the comebacker. As per DRF Formulator, this barn has a 4 for 7 stat with locally based turf stayers at this level ridden by Irad ( 71 days or > ), and the payoffs for that sampling were $13, #, $5 & $9. #3 JOYOUS TIMES was a dead game runner up behind a next out winner down in Oldsmar last month ( earning a solid BSF in the process ) and Lerman ( from a small sampling ) is 2 for 5 with runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 < 63 days back @ 38-1 or less ( $7 & $13 ). #2 INDOCHINE ( uncoupled barnmate with our top selection ) won her only start here.  OFF TURF: 1-3-7-4-6

 

Race  4 

1.Frosted Rose

2.Hurricane Hill

3.Coolboy

#1 FROSTED ROSE is one for four in turf dashes, but don't judge the losses too harshly, as one was in the bow & two were in stakes company. Grey gelding secures Franco, and he's been slowly heating up a bit of late. Meek selection in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 HURRICANE HILL hasn't been in action since early January, but has finished out of the money but once in six outings, and was a solid 3rd the only time he had a "For Sale" sticker attached to his rump ( at 38-1 ). Leaving beneath because of the chilly trainer & jockey. #5 COOLBOY has a propensity for losing ground late in the game, but got his photo taken in his only "3rd off the respite" spot, and may last for a share.  OFF TURF: 7-5-1-2-6

 

Race  5

1.Walkoff 

2.Brokers Prize

3.Armament

#2 WALKOFF was claimed for 35K, flopped at the 50K level, and got a confidence building tally ( without being purchased ) for 14 large on the 5th of the month. Cancel lands elsewhere here, but Looie is a more than capable replacement for Cox ( dig it ) who's a poyfect 4 of 4 with Elmont based mid level male dirt runners who got the job done less than 45 days back ( $7, $8, $5 & $23 ). In a larger sampling of that study, he's a whopping 15 fer 30 at any track ( $2.69 R.O.I. ). #5 BROKERS PRIZE has closed out the exacta in two of three "second off an absence" starts. Gelding has also been ITM both times he's gone 2X to 1X, and as none of those races overlap, that adds up to a 4-5 in the money rate, so why not chunk in at 30-1 ? #7 ARMAMENT ( one half of an uncoupled Barker entry ) is backed by a nice trainer stat, as the 15% shedrow more than doubles that batting average when going green to brown with their dashers at 24-1 or less ( beneath the 44 day watermark ). 

 

Race  6 

1.Unlikely 

2.Supply Sider

3.Bielfeld

We incorporated #3 UNLIKELY into our selections last time out, and although he was no threat to the winner, he gave a decent account of himself in besting a handful while losing by less than four at 96-1. We love the fact that this one is stretching out today while having eye cups added, and 5% Pregman is a nice 2-11 ( 18% ) with maiden claiming turf stayers who missed the baccala a month or less ago ( $16 & $14 ). #2 SUPPLY SIDER gets in light for the overture, and dam was 2-15 going long on the lawn, netting more than 163 large, and daddy did some excellent work on the same surface to boot ( 4 for 20, $2.2 Mil. ). Things to like at a price. #11 BIELFELD showed zippo first time out, but is now wearing a hood and gets a jockey upgrade from 7% Jose Lezcano to 30% Irad Ortiz.  OFF TURF: 4-13(MTO)-11-5-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Wicked Amber

2.Peaceful

3.Mo Me Mo My

#8 WICKED AMBER came along decently to lose by 3 3/4 in the return at 84-1, switches from apprentice to a journeyman today, and we have a rare positive Randi Persaud stat in play The 5% conditioner is 3-12 with turf sprinters off breaks of 45 days or less at 30-1 or under ( $17, $19 & $22 ). #1 PEACEFUL hasn't faced the starter in quite some time, but owns a solid body of work and has been working very well for the return engagement. #9 MO ME MO MY rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 9-1-6-2-11(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:52, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #12 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  8 

1.Risky Mischief

2.Critical Value

3.Big Q

Both the #4 RISKY MISHIEF & #1 CRITICAL VALUE are backed by identical DRF Formulator trainer stats which has 'Miah clicking at a near perfect 5 for 6 rate with BEL based ungraded dirt horsies in the 52-372 day bracket at 13-1 or less. The payouts for that sampling were $7 x 2, $8, $9 & $18, and we'll side with the higher priced half of the entry who draws outside her barnmate. #6 BIG Q won her only start after a layoff line, and it was also her lone foray when breaking from the outermost slot. Logical contendress. 

 

Race  9 

1.Herwaze

2.Crescent Lady 

3.Kiss and Run

#2 HERWAZE showed some nice early hoof when beginning her working life last autumn at The Big A, but with the turf season having ended shortly thereafter, and the ensuing shutdown, there just weren't many options for this one afterwards. The adjusted number from that day was a 65.6, and that would fit very well here. #9 CRESCENT LADY makes his second start off the bench today, and rates a big shot if able to get back to the #'s earned in '19. #1 KISS AND RUN closes out our day, week & month, as we inch closer to Saratoga.  OFF TURF: 12-2-1-3-10  NOTE: AS OF 11:56, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Belmont          ( Current ):       13-161  ( $171.40 )  Beatable Favorites    4-12 ( 33.3% )    Favorites Win %      59-161 ( 36.7% )( As of Sunday morning )


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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