SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/2



Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #8 Catch a Cab

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/2


Race  1

1.Sharp Starr

2.La Kara Mia

3.Adriatic Holiday

We start out the week with three solid DRF Formulator statistics, so let's get right to 'em. #1 SHARP STARR broke from the inside and ended up on the outside in the most recent, and over the last 260 weeks, DePaz is 5 for 8 with maiden special weight dirt stock who ran less than 40 days ago ( 3YO & up ), and there's a sub category of 3-3 with those having missed the board last time out. #2 LA KARA MIA ( something that Gomez used to say to Morticia in "The Addams Family" ( which we've enclosed right here ) smacked into the starting apparatus at the onset of her debut, so if you can be forgiving of that, what you're looking at is a 6:4-1-1 trainer stat which has Rice at just that with her second time females going T to D at this level ( 3 & up ), w/payoffs of $7 x 2, $8 & $9. #7 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY has improved with each passing start, and Tagg has scored with half of his quartet of mdspwt. dirt stock in the 58-92 day bracket ( 22-1 or undah ), with returns of $7 & $5. 


Race  2

1.Honorable Hero

2.Mission Command


#6 HONORABLE HERO was a lively runner up in his lone "second off the L/O" attempt, and owns a 4:2-1-0-1 mark on the Widener. We always try to find a way to see ourselves clear of pre & post L/O running lines, so we'll take a shot here. #1 MISSION COMMAND is one for three over this oval and drops back into the land of state breds today. #9 NUTZFORBOLTZ as bad as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 7(MTO)-2-1-6-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 CATCH A CAB fills the bill, as Maker has an 0-11 mark with local mid level turf stayers off breaks of 37 days or less.   NOTE: AS OF 12:34, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  3

1.Pacific Jazz

2.Blackjack Davey


#5 PACIFIC JAZZ bested half the field first time out right here, and the blinkers go on with Franco sticking around. Note the bullet gate move before the disappointing bow, so either one or two things happened that day: Gelding was merely flat for the debut, OR the blinkers were on for the breeze, but NOT for the race. Hmmmm...  No scary drop for this homebred as well. #1 BLACKJACK DAVEY broke tardily first out, but gets an appreciable rider switch here, and barn does well with 2TS'ers. #3 MICROSECOND owns plenty of early zip and has posted a couple'a decent numeros thus far. 


Race  4 

1.Cairo Queen

2.Wicked Title


#1 CAIRO QUEEN was all out to get up by a honker in her lone start off a sabbatical ( on this strip ), and hat hit the board in three straight before the recent interruption. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 WICKED TITLE finds herself at her lowest level to date for today's 3rd off the break scenario, and has blinkers affixed for the first time also. Recognize that Joel was astride for the lone tally. #5 FLASHPACKINBARBIE hasn't been seen in nearly the full length of a calendar, but was fantastic at first asking, and followed that up with an up the track performance in which 11 returnees amassed a cumulative 11: 4-1-2-1 mark ( from just eight different heats ).  


Race  5

1.Tequila Sunday

2.Persaud entry

3.Princess Mikayah

#9 TEQUILA SUNDAY needed every inch of ground to best slightly weaker on the 7th of the month, and 17% clan just about doubles that rate ( 4-12 ) with locally based mid level dirt stock who got the job done less than 50 days ago ( 3YO & up ). Needs a little pace to cut into. Both halves of Randi's entry -- #1 FIRST FOREVER ( 2 of 6 at Big Sandy ) and #1A ZECHA ( 12:2-2-2-4 when breaking from the outermost two slots on the sand ) are eligible to spice things up beneath. #4 PRINCESS MIKAYAH outran her odds in a big way when closing out the triple at 113-1 on June 14th, and her best work has come at this locale. 


Race  6 

1.Mister Winston



#3 MISTER WINSTON rallied nicely to snag the sheepskin at first asking for Brown ( at $21, no less ), and the aforementioned shotcaller is a near perfect 4 fer 5 with male optional dirt horsies who tallied a win right outta the box. #8 VILLAINOUS has a decent collection of speed figures, and goes one turn for just the second time. Colt is 2nd time eye cups also and would be no surprise. #1 LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE bested half the field at 83-1 in the most recent try and got his photograph taken the only time he was available for purchase. Three year old goes from Rajiv Maragh to Luis Saez, and that's like getting Lasix for the first time. 


Race  7



3.Discreet Lover

#9 COMPLEXITY is the clear class of this allotment and owns a one for two mark off a break in the action. Toss in that same record at BEL, and you have the makings of a likely ( but not lock sure ) favorite. #6 NICODEMUS is but a sliver shy of a poyfect 2-2 mark in 2nd off the shelf scenarios and has done quite well in this zip code also ( two of four ). 10th different pilot in 13 calls to the post is a Hall of Famer in Johnny V., and as this one has faced some salty critters thus far, we'll chunk into the mix. #1 DISCREET LOVER has been awful ( while overmatched ) in his last troika ( spread out over 20 months ), but has won his last duet outside of stakes company and $1,000 bred animal ( who has banked $1.45 million ) may perk up a bit. 


Race  8 

1.Fifty Five

2.War Canoe


#1 FIFTY FIVE is 2:1-1-0 off a hiatus, 7:2-2-2 when starting from the pine, 4:2-2-0 on the Widener course, and 26% barn is 5:4-1-0 with Bel. based ungraded turf routers who won 67-447 days ago ( $14, $5, $20 & $3 ). Odds on once again. #3 WAR CANOE was a rare claim by Brown back in November, and shedrow owns a 5-8 boxscore with the same categories listed above ( 68-408 days ). Hard knocking seven year old has won one of two off a break ( and on the gramma ). We like that he keeps this lady protected against the snag this afternoon. #2 FETCHING returned off a six month hiatus as sharp as a tack to get the job done vs. cheaper while going shorter. You may want to leave this one in the mix at decent odds off the career best numero.  OFF TURF: 7-4-6-3-1


Race  9 


2.Gen Z

3.Molly's Nighthawk

#7 PEERLESS didn't do much to get the pulse racing when debuting three weeks back, but the breeding is honest enough to permit this one one more chance, and 9% bossman has won with two of five second timers on the sod at 30-1 or lower ( < three fortnights ), w/fat payouts of $60 & $47. #3 GEN Z displayed some appreciable improvement when switching surfaces last time out, and as Ferraro's horses improve with time, we'll toss in the hopper at double digit odds. #1 MOLLY'S NIGHTHAWK was an even fourth in her lone start off a similar L/O scenario, and we'll leave in the mix, despite the bug looking awful out there at times.  OFF TURF: 9-2-6-10-7


Belmont          ( Current ):       13-171  ( $171.40 )  Beatable Favorites    4-12 ( 33.3% )    Favorites Win %      62-171 ( 36.3% )( As of Thursday morning ) 

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout