SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/3


Just about broke even with a three bagger yesterday as favorites/second choices gave now won 12 straight. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/3


Race  1

1.Beautiful Farewell 

2.My Sea Cottage ( Ire ) 


#5 BEAUTIFUL FAREWELL is a gal facing the lads, but we have always felt there is not as much of a disparity with the two year olds, and you would have to think this Maryland based animal could land in a softer spot down there, no? That being said, this miss has a sensational worktab for the bow ( including a couple of gate moves ), and will be led over by a shotcaller who's 5-15 with maiden special weight female 2YO's at 8-1 or less ( $8 x 3, $5 & $3 ). There are some excellent bloodlines here, and a three pound break in the weight department as well. #6 MY SEA COTTAGE (IRE) draws nicely, and is another conducting himself professionally in the A.M.'s, but we'll leave beneath because of the low ( 264 ) Tomlinson figure. #4 INDOCTRINATE split the field at first asking, and is conditioned by a bossman who has a crisp 6-21 mark with second timers of this ilk who crashed the fiesta 10-50 days back & are 7-1 or beneath ( $7, $4 x 3, $2 & $9 ). 


Race  2

1.Annie Rocks

2.Beach Dreaming


#8 ANNIE ROCKS has been a part of the superfecta in all three 2nd off the shelf forays on the gramma, and owns a 2 fer 4 mark at this distance ( compared to being 4 for 43 otherwise ). Demand value, however, as Reylu has not looked good out there this meet. #11 BEACH DREAMING has a win & a showing from as many tries off the shelf, and owns a 10 for 12 ITM rate @ the trip. #2 FACTORING is three of eight when breaking from the innermost three slots ( 0-11 from other posts ) and comes in off a 10-1 tally over this course.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-4(MTO)-2-1-5


Race  3


2.Big Bennys Tribute


#5 LOOKBOTHWAYS immolated some baccala when terribly overbet in the comebacker, but if you can forgive the pre & post L/O running lines ( as we like to do ), then what you have is a pretty fair resume', and one more opportunity at her lowest level to date. Most humdrum of choices in the most humdrum of races. #8 BIG BENNYS TRIBUTE completed the exacta in his only foray off the pine and has yet to have been entered this cheaply. #3 APPLETINI was a sharp -- and decently clear -- runner up in her lone "second off the shelf" spin, and got the job done in her only try going this dx. of ground. 


Race  4 


2.Tiple ( Ire )

3.Sea Sparkle 

#7 KEOTA has yet to pay complete dividends on the ( rare ) $35,000 Brown claim from 13+ months ago, but Dubb don't care about no bread, and the two stakes placings down in Hallandale Beach give them enough reason to keep this one claim protected for today's comebacker. #10 TIPLE (IRE) showed zilch when last in action at GP, but has a decent overall body of work and picks up Franco. #9 SEA SPARKLE missed by only a neck in her lone try off of this sort of scenario, and brings in a solid numero when closing out the triple at 31-1. Respect the speed for a sliver, despite the trainer's oh-for-50 mark.  OFF TURF: 6-7-5-2-9


Race  5

1.Topper T



#5 TOPPER T possesses a win & a third place finish in his only "second off the bench" tries, and after being privately purchased before the 2018 Breeders' Cup for an undisclosed amount, this one has proven to be a bit of a disappointment for Barber, et al. That being said, the recent duet of last place finishes have compelled the connections to make this one available for purchase for the first time, and blinkers are now a part of the package, along with a reunions w/Rosario ( this one's last winning pilot ). #7 SEANOW has a propensity for losing ground late in the game, but you must respect the early quickness as well as the 2:1-0-1 Belmont boxscore. #8 PREAMBLE rounds out the top three.


Race  6 


2.Say Moi

3.Spice Is Nice

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #1 OVERJOYED was extremely rank in the lone dirt attempt, but bloodlines ( Medaglia d'Oro over a Pulpit mare ) say that we should give this one another shot. Blinks are now a part of the makeup, and there's no dodging the fact that Drysdale owns some good numbers with returnees of this type. #5 SAY MOI just about replicated the figure earned from the March debut when snagging the sheepskin in the followup engagement st CD, and $300,000 Keeneland auction purchase seems to be on the right path. #7 SPICE IS NICE has a touch of back class & should appreciate the cutback for today's return to action. 


Race  7



3.Magnolia's Lady

We're going to give y'all a little bit of a betting strategy for this race, but as the odds haven't been posted as of this writing, we suggest you come back here in a day or so.  

Okay, we're back ! You can fee to proportion the base amount any way you want, but if the morning line odds stay as is, what we'll be doing is ...

--$11 exacta 12-11 ( To get back the $100 )

--$7 exacta saver 11/7-12 ( To get back the $100 )

--$75 Triple 12-7-11

OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-4-7-3-8


Race  8 

1.Big Thicket

2.Noda Entry

3.Bourbon Bay

#2B BIG THICKET recently bested what we would consider a tougher allotment over this oval, and the show horse from that day came back to get the job done next time out. Rudy Rod ( 19% on the norm ) is a lively 8:3-2-1-1 with Elmont based allowance dirt stock who finished first last out, & are ridden by Irad ( $7, $3 & $5 ). Both the #1 DANNY CALIFORNIA ( 10:3-1-2-2 of late ) and the #1A VINTAGE HOLLYWOOD ( who won his only second off the layoff start on the sand ) comprise decent factions of the Orlando Noda entry. #5 BOURBON BAY has a modicum of back class and the only off the board placing was after a break in the action, so we'll afford him a chance to make amends.   NOTE: AS OF 12:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH , THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  9 

1.Dalika ( Ger )


3.A Great Time

#8 DALIKA (GER) won her only "second off the L/O" comes in off a confidence building score down at Churchill Downs, and trainer never Stalls with his turf sprinters in the 41-45 day bracket ( 10-1 or under ) as he's a whopping six for nine in that regards ( with a positive return on investment ). #6 ESCAPADE is but a neck shy of a poyfect 5 fer 5 mark after a hiatus, and you would have to presume that's cause enough to include, no? #2 A GREAT TIME was a nicely clear runner up in her only second off the shelf attempt, and has the ability to send or rat just a bit.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-6-7


Race  10

1.Fluent in Sarcasm ( AE )

2.Our Troubador

3.Tempesta ( AE )

#14 FLUENT IN SARCASM (AE) needs some luck to make it into the body of the race today, but should that come to bear, will be toting along a couple'a decent figaros in turf sprints ( where the pilot stayed in the saddle ). Look for Irad to employ the "Killer Crossover" should they make it over to the races. #7 OUR TROUBADOR was a gutsy runner up in this race about three weeks ago, and three year old has partaken in the superfecta in his troika of turf attempts. Logical, but we're not quite sure why Vargas was given the boot. #13 TEMPESTA (AE) is another on the outside looking in, and finished just behind our secondary selection in their most recent tango, so we see no reason to exclude.  OFF TURF: 9-15(MTO)-2-1-7   NOTE: AS OF 12:20, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 6 & 8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

Belmont          ( Current ):       16-180  ( $188.30 )  Beatable Favorites    4-12 ( 38.5% )    Favorites Win %      67-180 ( 37.3% )( As of Friday morning ) 

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout