SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/4 - Happy Independence Day - God Bless America !!
  
  

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Just remember that wherever you take in today's festivites from -- NO drinking and driving, PLEASE. If you can afford to bet our selections, you can afford a cab.

GOD BLESS AMERICA !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 4 - #1 Mr Jaggers


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/4 - Happy Independence Day - God Bless America !!

 

Race  1

1.Charlotte Webley

2.Miss Ross

3.Remoane

#8 CHARLOTTE WEBLEY has improved with each passing start, drops for the second straight time in today's 2nd off the layoff attempt, gets the eye cups this afternoon, and 25% 'Miah is a snazzy 6-14 when making that equipment change with his dirt dashers at 9-1 or lower. Looking good. #2 MISS ROSS was fanned ten wide in the comeback attempt, but only lost by a bit over four that day, and 12% clan is 2 of 7 w/locally based maiden claiming dirt animals off absences of 10-50 days ( 24-1 or less ). Both winners came back $19 and you may get some good value here. #1 REMOANE takes the biggest drop in the game while having the wonder drug added for the first time; gets in light. 

 

Race  2

1.Tribhuvan ( GB )

2.Serve the King ( GB ) 

3.Memories of Peter

#1A TRIBHUVAN (GB) can be completely forgiven for the most recent, as it's pretty difficult to win a race when the rider has no irons. That being said, this one was regarded well enough to face winners as a maiden on several occasions, including the Swedish Derby last year. Colt finished 3rd behind a next out winner in this race two back, and trainer is a superb 13 fer 25 with Elmont runners of this ilk, and shows a positive ROI in that regards as well. #6 SERVE THE KING has been beset by layoff lines after each of his two starts ( both wins ), and although they were earned against slightly weaker, we'd be remiss in excluding this second half of the uncoupled barnmate w/ the above. #3 MEMORIES OF PETER can land a share.  OFF TURF: 4-1-5-6-9

 

Race  3

1.Frank's Rockette 

2.Up In Smoke 

3.Reagan's Edge 

#1 FRANK'S ROCKETTE has yet to miss an exacta finish, owns the most class of an entrant signed on, is toting along a couple'a bullets for the return, and from an itty bitty sampling, Mott is 2 for 4 with BEL based ungraded dirt runners in the 30-50 day zip code ( 40-1 or lower ), with mutuels of $6 & $3. #2 UP IN SMOKE has won all four sprints and what the hell's wrong with that? #3 REAGAN'S EDGE has ascended the Beyer ladder with each passing start ( two of them tallies ) and jumps into the deep end of the pool for the first time today. 

 

Race  4 

1.Great Camanoe

2.Malibu Edge

3.Bail Out

#2 GREAT CAMANOE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing thus far, but we like fading sprinters stretching out for the first time, and this one gets an appreciable upgrade in the trainer department this afternoon ( as well as a big rider switch to Jose Ortiz ). DePaz gives this one an "Around the World" treatment ( Blinks, Juice, and a loss of Pistachios ), and we wouldn't be surprised to see a Cracker Jack effort. #4 MALIBU EDGE completed the triple at 77-1 in the initial turf attempt ( rare for a Shug runner ), and the bloodlines tell us that it was likely not an aberration. #5 BAIL OUT has the best collection of numeros in the allotment, and that includes a couple of decent efforts in second off the L/O tries.  OFF TURF: 6-1-3-5-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 MR JAGGERS will be led over by a shotcaller who's oh-fer-11 with those fitting today's criteria. 

 

Race  5

1.Fortin Hill

2.Amundson

3.Ready to Escape

#7 FORTIN HILL has been sent to the shelf after each of his three starts, but they've definitely been good efforts ( two wins and a placing ), and Brown is a tight three for four with Bel. based optional dirt horsies in the 51-115 day zip code ridden by Irad. Looms a big threat once again. #6 AMUNDSON essentially replicated his prior speed figure in the lone "2nd off the shelf" try, and should that happen today, we'd be looking at something in the 95 range, & what's wrong with that? 22% bossman is a crisp 3 for 8 with dirt animals at this class level in the 18-50 day area at 10-1 or < ( $5 x 2 & $12 ). #2 READY TO ESCAPE has been a part of the superfecta in all three "2nd off the break" attempts and is eligible to improve off the wet track effort should today's surface come up fast. 

 

Race  6 

1.Too Sexy ( AE )

2.L'Indiscret 

3.Zaccapa ( Fr )

#13 TOO SEXY (AE) is on the outside looking in, but should one on her inside declare, with be brought to the frontside by a conditioner who's won with four of seven turfers cutting back at 18-1 or beneath ( less than three fortnights ) with the winners in that sampling paying $5, $8 x 2 & $3. Chance to make amends in today's second off the hibernation try. #2 L'INDISCRET failed by less than four lengths first time out, and as Tagg is not particularly well, known for having his stock fully cranked up at first asking, we're more than inclined to give this daughter of War Front another opportunity. #11 ZACCAPA (FR) hit the board in two of three starts back in the land of grapes, and like many other Euro shippers, sheds some poundage while receiving Lasix for the first time.  OFF TURF: 10-4-13(AE)-16(MTO)-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:17, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #10 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Jo's Bold Cat 

2.Bad Guy

3.Danfusi

#5 JO'S BOLD CAT came along belatedly to lose by five in the return to action at Laurel a month back, and although the figure earned that day was a bit on the low side, we're assuaged by the fact that Rubley has a nice 8-29 with allowance turf stayers who haven't been seen in 58 days ( males, 3 & up ) at 16-1 or below ( $5, $6, $7, $11, $12, $22, $25 & $9 ). #9 BAD GUY came with a flourish to miss by only a half at 20-1 last time out, but we'll leave this chronic nibbler ( 36:2-7-11 ) beneath. #8 DANFUSI went coast to coast like butter and toast when returning off nearly the entire length of a calendar, and is the clear speed of this deal.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4-7-8-9

 

Race  8 

1.Value Proposition ( GB )

2.Eons

3.Valid Point

#9 VALUE PROPOSITION (GB) owns an overall three for four mark, and that includes a win in his lone spin over the Widener, a win in his only start when last to load, and is backed by a tidy 2-6 DRF Formulator mark which has this outfit at just that with 2nd off the hiatus graded turf routers right here ( $4, $5 & $9 ), and there's a sub category of 2-2 with today's pilot in the saddle. #6 EONS hasn't been seen in his moniker, but won four in a row before the wheels came off 200 miles northward last August, and we'll chunk in at a price. #2 VALID POINT is another who had a winning streak snapped when last in action back in '19, and obviously you can't dismiss, given the connex.  OFF TURF: 4-2-8(MTO)-3-6 

 

Race  9 

1.McKinzie

2.Vekoma

3.Hog Creek Hustle

Featured race of the day is upon us, and doe some history on the Met Mile ( first won by Tristan back in 1891 ) please go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metropolitan_Handicap . #3 MCKINZIE ( 16:8-6-0 lifetime, nearly three and a half million earned ) was ridden out past the finish line when winning the seven furlong Triple Bend at Santa Anita 27 days ago ( in an effort to give him a bit more bottom for today's deal ), and Bob Baffert's Baked Beans is a near perfect 4-5 with BEL based graded dirt equines who scored less than 51 days back ( 4-1 or under ) with mutuels of $6 x 2, $3 & $7. Five year old should sit the perfect trip. #2 VEKOMA paddled his way to a 7+ length victory in the Carter, and you'd have to think Javy will be looking over his shoulder quite a few times in order to make the first jump on our top selection. Should be a fun race ! #4 HOG CREEK HUSTLE won a G1 in his only local go round here in 2019, and that's cause enough to toss in at 30-1. 

 

Race  10

1.Spooky Channel

2.Instilled Regard

3.Rockemperor ( Ire )

#8 SPOOKY CHANNEL has won 8 of his last 12 non "pre & post L/O" starts, and while this one will need some pace to cut into, we dig the fact that Lynch has gotten the job done four of seven times with graded stock going long on the lawn after scoring 17-67 days back ( $5, $10, $13 & $15 ). Excellent value here. #1 INSTILLED REGARD won his only "second off the shelf" turf attempt ( right here, no less ) and could be bursting late if Irad's able to get out of the pocket. With Jose Ortiz riding the lone speed in here, there's some precedent for that coming to fruition. #2 ROCKEMPEROR (IRE) rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 1-4-3-5-7

 

Race  11

1.Mr. Buff

2.Tacitus

3.Parsimony 

Pretty weak rendition of the Suburban closes out the day. Given the obvious speed, this is clearly #4 MR. BUFF's race to lose. $1,000 bred animal has already earned over a million clams, so kudos for that, and man, oh man, ain't that 37:14-7-4 career mark something to behold ? Gelding drops a whopping nine pounds off the recent placing, and grab him by the tail to get the glory. #1 TACITUS hasn't done much wrong in 11 lifetime starts ( other than burning a bit of bread ), and has eye cups re-affixed in this spot. #2 PARSIMONY has a couple of honest dirt routes to his credit and may jazz things up beneath.  

 

Belmont          ( Current ):       17-190  ( $195.50 )  Beatable Favorites    4-12 ( 38.5% )    Favorites Win %      69-190 ( 36.3% )( As of Saturday morning )


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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