SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/5


Just four chalky winners on a day laden with the stuff yesterday.

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #7 Front Run the Fed

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/5


Race  1


2.Enough Love

3.Chasing Losses

#7 MOSIENKO was as flat as a pancake in the comebacker, so Nevin drops this one way down the ladder today while putting her back on the sand -- where she owns a win & showing from as many tries. Three year old is displaying a bullet breeze up at Oklahoma ( man, it feels good to even type that ) and is reunited with Rosario, under whom she completed an exacta in Arcadia at the end of January. #3 ENOUGH LOVE has yet to finish out of the superfecta since being transferred over to Falcone, and that includes a showing in her lone "second of the L/O" attempt. Saez slated to ride, but with quarantine restrictions in place ( Luis at Los Al yesterday ) it would behoove you to check the changes. #2 CHASING LOSSES showed stark improvement in her followup to the disappointing bow, so obviously the drop helped her get some confidence back. Bay filly had to have her mail forwarded after the score, but it's good to see the pre-claim pilot return.  NOTE: AS OF 11:59, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  2

1.Morality Clause

2.Too Sexy

3.Risk Model

#3 MORALITY CLAUSE ( cross entered yesterday, so take a peek at the scratches ) hasn't been in action since last September, but sometimes the two yer olds get some growing pains towards the end of their freshman year and needs to take a little break. That being said, January foal was a solid runner up in the primary turf dash over firm ground, and encountered a bit of trouble when attempting that trip again. In the last year and a half+, barn has done quite well with those returning off sabbaticals of six months or more, as they're 4 for 11 in that regards ( 20-1 or less ) with returns of $10, $26, $5 & $17. #5 TOO SEXY ( also spotted on Saturday ) is an "omnifig" ( as rare as the ivory billed woodpecker ) as ALL of her Beyer speed figures supersede anything that anyone in the race has posted. Must use. #6 RISK MODEL showed some improvement from the first start to the next and is just as decently bred for the green as the brown.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-5-6-7-9


Race  3

1.Mucho Sunshine 

2.Tri Saint Lorenzo


#9 MUCHO SUNSHINE posted an adjusted 52.8 the last time he went over a fast track, and did such at a much higher level despite clipping heels early on in the game that day. When you scroll up and down the P.P.'s of others signed on, you don't see too many with numeros much higher than that. Despite the recent 8th place finish on the sod, we actually like that effort, as there was some speed shown that day, and the # earned was better than we thought it would be, given the breeding. Four year old just may surprise. #3 TRI SAINT LORENZO has several decent running lines on the resume', and finds himself at his lowest level to date. #5 HEIGHT goes turf to dirt, 2X to 1X, and takes the biggest drop in the game today. Logical inclusion.   NOTE: AS OF 12:03, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  4 




#6 CATORAT was all out to get the diploma by a honker when last seen 11+ months ago, and as they don't give horses vacations in this game for the hell of it, obviously something went amiss that day or shortly thereafter. The good news is that Donk does okay with returnees of this type, and the adjusted figaro from the maiden breaker fits with these. #7 BRAY has yet to miss the board in three starts to date ( two of those in what we would consider tougher company ), and must be left in the mix given the overall body of work. #10 MANDATE got his photograph taken the only time he was available for purchase, and could be rolling late with some pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 1A-8-7-2-1


Race  5

1.Snappy Cat

2.Disciplanarian ( AE ) 

3.Fast Gordon

#10 SNAPPY CAT flashed the briefest of early hoof when starting things out on the local main a month back, but this one is much better bred for the green than the brown, and there's a seven pound reduction in the weight department this afternoon. Recognize that the sire was 3:1-1-0-1 in turf sprints ( including placing in a Grade One ) and we're always willing to nibble on a Romero runner at a price. #13 DISCIPLANARIAN (AE) needs one to get the sniffles in order to make it into the body of the race, but should that come to bear, brings along three ITM finishes from as many turf starts, and the meet's leading rider. #5 FAST GORDON only beat a couple home first time out, but takes the plunge today for a barn that has won at less than half of their normative rate over the last three months.  OFF TURF: 13(AE)-15(AE)-7-11-16(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 12:07, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 6 & 8 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Race  6 



3.Coach Villa 

#5 TAPIZEARANCE didn't show much in the comebacker, but was protected against the claim that day, and is protected once again today. Runner has a shot if able to get back to that pre-layoff form. #2 FEVOLA beat a next out winner by a pole when getting the sheepskin at the end of February, and appears to have landed in a palatable spot for the comebacker; Manny Man returns. #7 COACH VILLA has won both of his starts off a break in the action, and that's good enough reason for us to chunk in. 


Race  7

1.Madeleine Must ( Fr )

2.Stone Tornado ( GB )

3.Madita ( Ger )

#7 MADELEINE MUST (FR) is one for two in 2nd off the shelf engagements, and as there were a couple of nice morning moves before her return, we feel she's deserving of another chance at 8-1. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 STONE TORNADO (GB) is a graded stakes placed gal who has missed the board but twice in her seven race career, and she gave the appearance of a runner who may have needed one in the most recent ( especially when you know that her barnmate ended up winning the race anyway ). #5 MADITA (GER) completes the "Escargot--Fish & Chips--Sauerkraut" triple based on her convincing score over a next out victress back on June the 3rd.  OFF TURF: 2-1-4(MTO)-6-8


Race  8 

1.Kid d'Oro

2.Tale of the Union

3.Big Thicket

#6 KID D'ORO was a gutsy winner in his lone try off a similar layoff scenario, and as this one had recently departed the cheating Jason Servis' barn, perhaps he was in need of the wet track outing two dozen days ago. Another timid selection in yet another wide open affair. #8 TALE OF THE UNION had an awkward onset to the most recent, but there have been two sizzling workouts since, and is an obvious factor given the connex. #2 BIG THICKET ( scratched on Friday for this ) got up in time to best what we feel was a tougher allotment last month, and we see no reason another decent performance isn't within reach. 


Race  9 


2.Mai Ty One On

3.Majestic Dunhill

#5 VICI is a nibbler by rote ( 40:4-12-9 ), but is 5:1-0-3 in second off the L/O starts, and gets an appreciable upgrade in the trainer dept. for the day's feature while possessing some nice front end speed. Know him early, but have some Tums at the ready late. #9 MAI TAI ONE ON got the job done against slightly weaker down in Hallandale Beach a month & a half back, and we'd be remiss in excluding one coming in off a lifetime best figure. #6 MAJESTIC DUNHILL was a gamely runner up in the local stakes attempt back on the 7th, and while using -- we'll leave beneath as Gutierrez is approaching 1 for 70 territory as of this writing.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #7 FRONT RUN THE FED   OFF TURF: 5-6-1-2-9


Race  10

1.Majestic View

2.Striking Causeway

3.Spiritual King

#11 MAJESTIC VIEW did not disgrace himself when besting more than half the field at first asking, as he was right there in the first fight before losing by less than five. Upgrade with the jock switch in play, and of course we like the draw. #8 STRIKING CAUSEWAY put forth a lively showing under identical circumstances off more than a five month sabbatical, and the pedigree says to us that the result that day was likely no aberration. #5 SPIRITUAL KING posted solid BSF's in both of his turf attempts and new shotcaller has given this one the unkindest cut of all for his first start back.  OFF TURF: 6-9-7-10-11

Belmont          ( Current ):       21-201  ( $210.20 )  Beatable Favorites    5-13 ( 38.5% )    Favorites Win %      75-201 ( 37.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout