SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/9 - Closing Week
  
  

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Closing Week !


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/9 - Closing Week

 

Race  1

1.Steal My Sunshine

2.Alda

3.Trewish

#7 STEAL MY SUNSHINE begins her professional working life this afternoon, and does such with a couple of characteristic quick morning moves in tow for Wesley Ward. Aforementioned shotcaller has a 3 for 8 record with firsters fitting ALL this exact criteria ( $6 & $7 x 2 ), a d obviously we love the outside draw as well as the pilot. #2 ALDA showed some good soul when attempting to Pierce his way through the field first time out, but backers with a Hawkeye that day won't be rewarded with 10-1 again. With only two others owning some battle time here, it's essentially a choice of liver or fish selecting one with experience. Employing the "Diamond in the rough" theory with the #3 TREWISH here, as there's a decently hidden bullet gate breeze on the docket amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves. 

 

Race  2

1.Vincero

2.Stoney Bennett

3.Moneymeister

We don't really see the need to delve deeper than our exacta selections in this spot. #1 VINCERO looks to be a solid "place" bet here, as single digit jockey & trainer are tethered to an animal with a deceptively good last race number ( 20% better on a fast track than a wet one ). As this one has been kept in jail after the snag a month+ ago, he's eligible to return at the same level today, and note the sensational 11:6-2-1 ledger when breaking from the inner two slots, in comparison to being 15:3-2-1 from the three hole on out. Play of the day. #3 STONEY BENNETT appears to be the mainger danger in here, what with the solid placing off a calendar+ type hibernation, excellent speed, and affinity for the distance. #9 MONEYMEISTER has a lovely "declining" record at the dx. ( 12:4-2-0 ) and owns a placing and a showing in both "3rd off the L/O' tries.   NOTE: AS OF 11:41, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Ebony ( Fr )

2.Wicked Amber

3.Setting the Mood

#4 EBONY (FR) has done some decent work in the land of grapes & love, and makes her North American bow today, which is highly pertinent, as conditioner has a juicy 7-15 boxscore with said type getting juice for the first time under these conditions ( 11-1 or less & 390 days or lower ). The ROI for that sampling is a large $4.93, and the meet's leading rider gets the call. Little bit of a "Randi Persaud DRF Formulator Stat" with the #1 WICKED AMBER here, as said 5% trainer is 4-24 ( 17% ) with turfers who missed the baccala less than 22 days back & are 30-1 or beneath ( $7, $38, $19 & $21 ). #6 SETTING THE MOOD rounds out the top three.  OFF TURF: 5-6-2-1-3

 

Race  4 

1.Central Exit

2.Madam Deputy

3.Belleza

#2 CENTRAL EXIT has a couple'a decent running lines on the resume', and the recent troika of workouts have shown steady improvement for today's return to action. Meeeeeeekest of selections in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 MADAM DEPUTY has been performing admirably in the A.M.'s for today's overture, but it's a bit weird to see a Constitution being offered for his breeding price so early in the game, so take a peek at the warmup. #7 BELLEZA takes the biggest drop in the game after posting two solid numeros and is a sensible inclusion. 

 

Race  5

1.Quiet Out East

2.War Film

3.Riendo

#6 QUIET OUT EAST is 3:1-0-2 on the Widener turf course, completed the exacta in his lone "second off the shelf" foray, is one for two at this distance of ground ( with NONE of those races overlapping ), and most importantly -- will be led over by a bossman with a tremendous stat in play. Over the last 60 months, Cox ( dig it ) is a snazzy 17 for 33 with mid level turf stayers who won < 50 days back & are beneath the 10-1 watermark ( 3YO's & upward ). There's a positive return on investment for that study, and the go-to rider is aboard one again. #3 WAR FILM lost by less than two in his only "3rd off the layoff" spin ( in a G2 ), and is a sensible -- if unspectacular -- sort. #8 RIENDO is 2-8 @ this distance ( 0-12 at other trips ) and is 2nd off the bench for the first time here.  OFF TURF: 6-9-2-7-3

 

Race  6 

1.Back Channel

2.Simply Sweet 

3.Capraia's Destiny

#6 BACK CHANNEL was a well beaten but well clear runner up right outta the box 26 days in the rear, and not only does this miss drop two pounds off that effort, but is schooled by an outfit that's 14:10-1-1-1 w/ second time filly starters who were 1-2-3 @ first asking on this circuit & are 9-1 or undah ( $4.27 R.O.I. ). Looking strong. #7 SIMPLY SWEET ( a Super Saver firster out of a Storm Cat mare ) has been conducting his business in a professional manner in the mornings for the onset to his career, topping it off with a blistering 48 flat move on the traditionally slow training track. Could be any kind. #8 CAPRAIA'S DESTINY split the field when as green as grass before the shutdown, and gets eye cups for the first time today. 

 

Race  7

1.Our Country

2.Shamrocket

3.Will Sing for Wine

#1 OUR COUNTRY owns a touch of back class, has hit the super in 5 of 7 outings, and when he failed to do such, lost by an average of just three lengths. Will need a touch of pace early on as well as a seam late in the game. #4 SHAMROCKET has improved with each and every passing start on firm ground, and that includes a recent tally on the inner; immensely logical. #7 WILL SING FOR WINE flopped in the comebacker, but switches surfaces for the first time today, and is better bred for it than the sand, and a couple of the dirt efforts weren't too shabby.  OFF TURF: 4-1-2-6-8

 

Race  8 

1.Excess Capacity

2.The Great Johanna

3.Maiden Beauty

#1A EXCESS CAPACITY is one for two in "3rd off the shelf" situations, two for four at this dist., and 16% barn more than doubles that rate ( 5-15 ) with freshly purchased dirt sprinters who were OTB less than 40 days back & are 16-1 or beneath. Big switch from a poor apprentice to I. Ortiz in play here. #3 THE GREAT JOHANNA has given a wonderful account of herself ( and trainer, Jimmy Ferraro ) after having been bred for merely 3K way back when, as this miss has banked nearly a quarter of a mil since. Gal lost by a schnoz in a heartbreaker in her lone second off the respite deal, and as barn is starting to heat up a touch ( a win & a placing this week ), we'll chunk in. #6 MAIDEN BEAUTY has done her best work at this trip/over this strip, & can land a share. 

 

Race  9 

1.Fleet Stepper

2.Simply Miss Red

3.Come Storming

#2 FLEET STEPPER was an even 5th first time out for C-Squared, and the bloodlines tell us there's ample room for improvement. Mild choice. #6 SIMPLY MISS RED comes in today off a lifetime best #, and while a bounce is always possible, we'd be remiss in excluding. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow next to the #4 COME STORMING, as this one appears to be figuring things out as she goes along. Four year old finds herself at her lowest level to date and should be right there.  OFF TURF: 1A(MTO)-7-1-2-12 


Belmont          ( Current ):       22-211  ( $214.40 )  Beatable Favorites    6-14 ( 42.9% )    Favorites Win %      79-211 ( 37.4% )( As of Thursday morning ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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