SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/10
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's selections & analysis of the Maker's Mile from Keeneland, merely go back one page.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #6 Long Weekend  AS OF 11:35, Race 7 - #10 Noble Jewel


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/10

 

Race  1

1.Blame the Booze

2.Centavo

3.King of Miami

Wesley Ward has an uncoupled entry in today's juvenile opener ( shocker ) and in situations like this, we always make it a point to see if his barnmates have been working in tandem -- or kept apart. In this case it's the latter, and perhaps that's because one happens to be a bit better than the other and he doesn't want to get discouraged. It appears that #5 BLAME THE BOOZE may have tipped his hand a bit with the 48 & 2 gate move back in mid May, and obviously has good bloodlines. #1 CENTAVO has been conducting himself admirably in the mornings, and although the turf pedigree leaves a lot to be desired, sometimes speed is of more importance in these grass dashes. #6 KING OF MIAMI ( barnmate with the top selection ) is by A.P., who's been doing quite well with his turf get so far.  OFF TURF: 5-4-2-1-6

 

Race  2

1.Duncastle

2.Field of Courage

3.Dirty

#9 DUNCASTLE finished second in his lone "second start off the layoff" turf attempt, 3rd in his lone spin on the inner, and got the job done the last time he was under the tutelage of this conditioner. Slimmest of margins in a wide open affair. #1 FIELD OF COURAGE has a one for four mark in second off the respite attempts, and lightly raced runner with back class not only finds himself at his lowest level to date, but is a sensational 4:3-0-1 when first to load ( compared to being 3-23 otherwise ) #10 DIRTY is 1 fer 2 off of this kind of L/O and got his photograph taken the only time he was available for purchase.  OFF TURF: 2-3(MTO)-1-4-8  NOTE: AS OF 11:27, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  3

1.Little Mazzy 

2.Fulfill

3.Striking Speed

#10 LITTLE MAZZY is 3rd off the bench today and drops a couple of pegs, Meeeeekest of selections in a race that's hard to hug. #7 FULFILL more than outran his odds when completing the triple at 25-1 last time out, and is an obvious factor off that effort. #9 STRIKING SPEED popped & stopped in the comebacker and plummets to teh 20K level this afternoon.  NOTE: AS OF 11:31, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Malarkey

2.Cotton Candy Cutie

3.Malibu Mischief

#5 MALARKEY was quite disappointing in the return engagement, but Rice is a nice 3 of 4 with locally based mid level dirt stock who missed the board less than 16 days back ( $14, $5 & $9 ). #9 COTTON CANDY CUTIE has four places from as many "third off the shelf" dirt attempts, and 16% shedrow more than doubles that rate ( 3 for 9 ) with the same categories listed directly above ( substituting "off" the board with "In" the money ); the mutuels for that sampling were $7, $5 & $12, and this one has enough speed to land a share. #6 MALIBU MISCHIEF has won three of four right here at Elmont, and that's enough reason to include. 

 

Race  5

1.Strike Magic

2.Kitten by the Sea

3.Wild North

#4 STRIKE MAGIC gave a decent accounting of herself in losing by only three lengths when coming back off a break in the action, and the figure posted that day was a career best. As Reylu is colder than a Klondike Bar these days, the only way we can see our way clear of using him is on something in the 20-1 range, which this one will most likely be come postward. #6 KITTEN BY THE SEA has improved with each and every start and shoots for the hat trick in her first start off a rare Pletcher/Repole claim. #2 WILD NORTH put it all together to secure the sheepskin after the long hibernation and deserves a looksie versus these.  OFF TURF: 10(MTO)-6-9-3-5  NOTE: DUE TO A TROIKA OF SCRATCHES, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  6 

1.Voice of Spring

2.Vivazano

3.Jewel of Arabia

As we won't be delving any deeper than these three for our rolling action, we thought we could offer a bit of betting strategy here. Based on a $100 bankroll ( or proprtionately less, if you're so inclined ), what we'll be doing is a $6 Triple Box with #9 VOICE OF SPRING--#7 VIVAZANO--#10 JEWEL OF ARABIA and a $32 Exacta Box utilizing our top two selections. 

 

Race  7

1.Brass Ring

2.Roman City

3.Spring Drama

#1 BRASS RING owns a 3:1-1-1 record when avialable for purchase, and Gyarmati ( 9% on the norm ) is a crisp 3-8 with turf dashers at this level off breaks of 67 days or less ( below 71-1 ). The mutuels for that sampling were $4, $28 & $35, and filly goes from an apprentice to a journeyman in this spot. #12 ROMAN CITY went back to back down in Hallandale Beach this winter, as Steve Klesaris will try to get this one home for dad. #11 SPRING DRAMA has partaken in the triple in both starts on this course and is as good as any for the show dough.  OFF TURF: 4-1-6(MTO)-11-12  NOTE: AS OF 11:35, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: AS OF 11:35 THE #10 NOBLE JEWEL WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.

 

Race  8 

1.Our Last Buck

2.Not That Brady

3.Twisted Tom

#10 OUR LAST BUCK has essentially gone coast to coast over his last duet, ( one of them right here & the other at this trip ) and six year old gelding has fired off a couplel of bullets since the most recent. When it comes to optional male dirt sprinters who tallied a win 8-50 days back & are 11-1 or undah, NEvin is heaven, as she owns a great 10:7-2-0-1 record, with a positive ROI in that regards. #2 NOT THAT BRADY ( who was once on the Triple Crown trail ) is 5:2-2-0 at the dx., 2:1-1-0 when beginning from the innermost two posts, and lost by only a half in his only start off a break. #1 TWISTED TOM sure knows where the line is, as the 9-27 lifetime mark dictates, and scored by a honker in his lone "second off the L/O" foray.  NOTE: AS OF 4:21, DUE TO A LATE, LATE SCRATCH, THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  9 

1.Newstome

2.Wondrwherecraigis

3.Liam's Pride

#2 NEWSTOME has a touch of back class, and as there's an old adage to "use undefeated horses at 3-1 or more", this one is 6-1 while being undefeated at the distance ( 3-3 ), so we'll bite. #5 WONDRWHERECRAIGIS is in fact undefeated and is posted at 5-1 on the morning line, so we'll use in his New York bow. #7 LIAM'S PRIDE owns a win & a showing from three starts over a glib surface, and draws well.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 LONG WEEKEND will be led over by a shotcaller who's 0-11 with ungraded dirt sprinters in the 51-101 day zip code.  

 

Race  10

1.Adorable Maya

2.Running On Entry

3.Big Red Girl

We have positively no read on this race so tread lightly. #10 ADORABLE MAYA hasn't seen the scene since around turkey time, but takes the biggest drop in the game and gets in light with a de cent bug assigned. #6 RUNNING ON ENTRY has been missing in action for the full length of a calendar, but the adjusted numbers from her sophomore season were purdy good, and four year old facing some younger competitors is another taking a plunge on the comeback attempt. #12 BIG RED GIRL overcame a bit of trouble to finish third in the "first off the layoff/first time turf" spin, and goes inside to outside for today's nitecap, which is an angle we've always been fond of.  OFF TURF: 8-3-6-9-4  NOTE: DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 7 & 5 WILL BE OUR SECOND & THIRD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.


Belmont          ( Current ):       22-220  ( $214.40 )  Beatable Favorites    6-14 ( 42.9% )    Favorites Win %      82-220 ( 37.4% )( As of Thursday morning ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


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