SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/11


Just about a break even three bagger for us here yesterday, as we wind down the stand. 

Just a reminder that for complete selections & analysis of FOUR graded stakes races from Keeneland, merely go back one page. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #10 Honey Won't  Race 9 - #4 Uncle George

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/11


Race  1

1.Shaker Shack


3.First Deposit

#1 SHAKER SHACK has a couple of decent morning moves on the ledger for today's overture, brings along a healthy Tomlinson ( 383 ) for today's distance, and is a full to Bustin Out, who went 9 for 17 in dirt dashes, banking more than 345 large. Slim edge in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 SHESADIRTYDANCER bested half the field at 14-1 first time out, and is eligible to improve with blinkers being added today. #4 FIRST DEPOSIT hasn't displayed much in the A.M.'s for today's initial foray, but is a January foal facing younger competitors, and is decently bred for the trip.  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch in R1, the #2 will be our 3rd selection.


Race  2

1.Mo Flash

2.Miss Loyalty


#6 MO FLASH makes her second start off a layoff today, and happens to own a 3:2-0-1 record in that regards, and finds herself at her lowest level to date. Another mild choice. #1 MISS LOYALTY will be led over by a conditioner who's a crisp 4-14 with locally based mid level dirt gals who were in the money 8-50 days back & are 8-1 or undah ( three year olds & upwards ), with mutuels of $5, $6, $7 & $11. #2 RADIANTRITHYM sure is a game ol' gal, ain't she? 57:11-11-14 mark tells the tale, and Franco has done some fine work for this barn in the past. 


Race  3

1.Cobble Hill

2.Waynes Footsteps


#6 COBBLE HILL has put forth successive solid starts since switching shotcallers ( say that three times fast ! ), and that includes a tally at this distance. Lands in a decent spot for his first try against winners. #1 WAYNES FOOTSTEPS hasn't been in action since early February, but has partaken in the triple in both of his starts off a hiatus, and has done pretty well when breaking from an inside-ish type slot. Recognize that this one was claimed for a quarter, and is now entered for 16K, despite being eligible to have the claiming price waived. Leaving beneath because of the Nordic pilot. #5 LARCENY got his photo taken in the lone "3rd of a L/O" attempt, and sheds a handful of pounds today. 


Race  4 

1.Mother Mother

2.Piedi Bianchi

3.Monomoy Girl

Today's featured race is named after one of ( if not THE ) greatest fillies of all time -- Ruffian. We've included video of her victory in the Mother Goose right here #2 MOTHER MOTHER owns a nice, overall body of work ( which includes a decent showing in a Grade 2 back in February ), and loses six pounds for Bob Baffert's Baked Beans. Definitely using, but by no means a standout. #1 PIEDI BIANCHI got the job done in her only "second off the break" try going one turn, and is reunited with blinkers today, with which she had some success as a freshman. #5 MONOMOY GIRL appears to be building a Hall of Fame type resume' ( six straight G1 scores ) and while a most deserving favorite, keep in mind that she comes in off a career low dirt Beyer. 


Race  5

1.Fregua ( GB )

2.Yes and Yes


#6 FREGUA (GB) hasn't faced the starter since winning at first asking over in Italia more than a year and a half ago, and like many foreign shippers, is getting acquainted with the wonder drug for the first time. Monstrous turf pedigree tells us that not only was the win likely not an aberration, but there's ample room for improvement. #2 YES AND YES went coast to coast like butter and toast against what we feel was tougher competition a fortnight ago, and we see no reason a repeat isn't within reach today. #11 QUARKY rarely gives a bad account of himself and has hit the board in all four tries when starting from the outermost two slots.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #10 HONEY WON'T will be brought over by a trainer who has an 0-13 mark in all relevant categories.  OFF TURF: 1(MTO)-5(MTO)-8(MTO)-7(MTO)-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:44, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #9 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Derby Doll 

2.Stuy Town Baby


#1 DERBY DOLL woke up in a big way when beating home half the field in her initial turf deal ( and her first start with Lasix as well ) at boxcar odds right here. Gal only failed by 5 1/2 that afternoon, ( after being pinched at the start ) and now sheds 64oz. while sliding in five post positions. Will need to sit a perfect trip beneath a jock who doesn't seem to be cut out for this circuit much longer. Price play. #2 STUY TOWN BABY has hung up a couple of decent figs in both turf routes and is a sensible inclusion. #8 COURTED must have appreciated the adding of eye cups last out, as she led for a sizable chunk of the race before finishing 3rd; not a lot of speed signed on, so she's a threat once again.  OFF TURF: 16(MTO)-5-3-13(AE)-4


Race  7

1.Good Credence

2.Bustin Scones

3.Single Verse

#1 GOOD CREDENCE put forth an honest enough effort in the comebacker, but Margotta sees fit to toss the hood back on today, and that's of high relevance, as the aforementioned shotcaller is a near perfect 5 for 6 when re-adding the blinks to his dirt runners who finished OUT of the money < 51 days ago ( 6-1 or less ), with mutuels of $6, $4, $9, $12 & $3. The interesting thing about that statistic is that the barn is 0-5 with those who were IN the money in that study. #8 BUSTIN SCONES came along nicely to get the place bread at 28-1 in the comebacker two dozen days back, and we'd be remiss in excluding. #2 SINGLE VERSE has a touch of back class and can close things out. 


Race  8 

1.Family Biz

2.Heavy Roller

3.Leitone ( Chi )

#2 FAMILY BIZ was given her first break after 20 starts back in March ( intended or not ) and bested conditional claimers when last on the frontside. Good guy Duggan has a crisp 3-9 mark with mid level dirt stock in the 51-203 day range ( $4, $8 & $11 ). #7 HEAVY ROLLER has been a part of the exacta in just about half of his career outings, and Atras has won with half of his ten starters of this ilk who crashed the fiesta 34-50 days back ( 6-1 or undah ), and has a positive R.O.I. in that area. #1A LEITONE (CHI) takes the obligatory hike in class today after being snagged 22 days back, and six year old "horse" ( you RUN when you see someone coming with scissors, buddy ! ) has done fine work at this trip & over this strip. 


Race  9 

1.Qian B C 

2.Big Wonder

3.Impazible Odds

#3 QIAN B C was an extremely wide third in his lone 2nd off the L/O attempt and has an okay 5:1-1-2 mark on the Widener. Hum drum choice in a race we ain't too enthused about. #5 BIG WONDER makes his 5th start in 38 days ( which would amount to 48 over a 12 month span ), but is in the form of his life these days, and we'll toss in. #8 IMPAZIBLE ODDS was an even 3rd last out, and fits decently here.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-14(MTO)-4-6-7  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #4 UNCLE GEORGE doesn't make our first draft, so why would we take 7/2 ? 


Race  10

1.Lord Camden

2.Warriors Revenge

3.Inspector Henning 

#5 LORD CAMDEN hasn't done much to get the heart pumping of late, so barn decides to shake things up a bit and switch surfaces with this one, and there's a nice DRF Formulator stat in play when doing that. Over the last 60 months, Casse is as classy as Freddie Blassie when going green to brown with his maiden claimers who were OTB less than 56 days back & are 9-1 or lower ( $9 x 2, $6, $3 & $8 ). #7 WARRIORS REVENGE is coming out to play for the first time, and cheaply bred runner has been conducting his business in a professional manner in he mornings, and has decent pedigree for this distance. #3 INSPECTOR HENNING has undergone a snippage since last in action and may wake him up a bit ( it sure as hell would wake us up ).  


Belmont          ( Current ):       25-230  ( $232.70 )  Beatable Favorites    6-15 ( 40.0% )    Favorites Win %      85-230 ( 37.0% )( As of Friday morning )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout