SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Belmont Selections & Analysis - 7/12 - Closing Day


We're heating up at the right time heading into Saratoga, as yesterday we had a Grand Slam ( $9, $8, $16 & $6 ), four Rolling Doubles of $54, $99, $19 & $42 ( cold ), three Rolling Pick Three's of $51, $128 & $327, two exacta boxes of $31 & $235, and a $772 Triple Box, giving us 7 winners over the last 19 races ( compared to being 22-221 beforehand ). The key to this is horses are starting to be two & three starts clear of their layoff lines, which is vital in our overall analysis of a race. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None  NOTE: AS OF 11:40, RACE 5 - #11....RACE 6 - #2....RACE 9 - #5

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Belmont - 7/12 - Closing Day


Race  1

1.Gypsie Janie

2.Into Chocolate

3.Fair Regis

#3 GYPSIE JANIE was as flat as the Pre-Columbus earth in the return engagement, but win machine ( 7-17 on the sand ) has closed out the exacta in two of three "second off the layoff" tries, and has done her finest work beneath today's pilot. Chance to rebound back in for a tag. #4 INTO CHOCOLATE hasn't been in action since placing in a listed stakes down at Oldsmar about five months back, and is an obvious factor given the overall body of work as well as the recent string of morning moves. #1 FAIR REGIS gave it the ol' college try when coming back off a 4/12 month respite, and not only is the six year old 3:1-1-1 when breaking from the pine, but also got her photograph taken in the lone "2nd off the break" attempt. 


Race  2

1.War Call


3.Thin White Duke

#8 WAR CALL has a couple of bullets in the holster for today's overture ( one of them a gate move, which always merits inclusion ), and not only do we love the draw ( Killer Crossover, anyone ? ), but this one is a half to dirt dashers who've gone 6-20, 1-8, 1-8 & 2-10. Additionally, mommy was 4-7 dancing to this music, and the paternal grandsire was 4-12 doing the same. Just may prove to be a smart auction pickup for 15K. #3 COTTON was picked out of the Saratoga sale for 90 large last year, and is another performing admirably in the A.M.'s for today's initial spin, while toting along a sweet Tommy of 402. Logical. #4 THIN WHITE DUKE closed out the triple first time out, and the pedigree tells us that there's likely plenty of room for improvement. 


Race  3



3.Wear My Ring

#4 DESBORDES popped & stopped at even money in the return, but has posted a couple'a nice works since the flop, and is reunited with the pilot from her last score. Mild choice. #7 INTOXICOLOGIST apparently didn't dig the turf experiment one bit, so is switched back over to the brown stuff today while finding herself at her lowest level to date. Will take some pounding at the windows. #2 WEAR MY RING bested only the chase ambulance in the most recent, and now this $200,000 auctioned animal can be yours for a scintilla of that amount this afternoon. Blinkers are now a part of the makeup, and while you must include, caveat emptor, for sure. 


Race  4 

1.Gatto Marrone


3.Michael's Bad Boy

#4 GATTO MARRONE showed a touch of improvement in the secondary turf try, and while the initial route didn't quite get the pulse racing, recognize that he was bottled up for a good chunk of the race. Jockey /trainer combo clicks at a solid 10:3-1-1-2 rate ( $6, $11 & $4 ), and in a wide open affair, we'll shoot for a big numbah. #3 KLICKITAT fell short by only a noggin ( while going wide ) in his only start off an elongated absence, and not only does this $220,000 runner take the biggest drop in the game today, but is now entered sans tes-tee-klees. #10 MICHAEL'S BAD BOY comes in today off a career best performance, and we always like to see those Oklahoma breezes on the docket. OFF TURF: 2-12-1-15(MTO)-4


Race  5


2.Variant Perception

3.Bourbon Currency

#10 CAVARADOSSI drops 15G after outrunning his odds in finishing 3rd on the main a month back, and goes over the gramma for the first time in today's followup. That last part shouldn't be too much of an issue, as the five year old is bred decently for the stuff, and game gelding has been a part of the superfecta in seven straight and nine of ten. #4 VARIANT PERCEPTION owns a win & a fourth from as many tries in this sort of layoff scenario, and crossed the line first in his only spin on the inner. Should be right in the thick of things late in the game. #8 BOURBON CURRENCY has won both of his outings on this course, ad factoring that in with Jose & and 8-1 offering, we can do a lot worse.  OFF TURF: 6-3-7-8-9  NOTE: AS OF 11:36, THE #11 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  6 

1.Canarsie Angel ( AE )

2.Freddymo Factor 

3.Silky Blue

#13 CANARSIE ANGEL (AE) needs one to declare in order to make it over to the races here, but should that be the case, will be bringing over a 1 for 3 mark going over the blades, and even one of the losses wasn't half bad ( a 5+ length defeat at 36-1 off a long sabbatical ). #9 FREDDYMO FACTOR has improved w/each passing turf attempt ( 33-58-59 ), so right off the bat, who knows where her ceiling is in that regards. Yes -- she has been beset by layoff starts after every single call to the post, but one of them resulted in a win, and as a four year old assigned a heavier impost, that is negated with the decent bug assigned. #11 SILKY BLUE was all out to get up by a sliver right here 18 days back, and while a bounce is always feasible, we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 8-12-7-9-14(MTO)  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #1 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION AND THE #2 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Race  7

1.Awesome Adversary


3.Vilolent Delights

#5 AWESOME ADVERSARY overcame a touch of trouble to split the field at 94-1 last time out, and gets an appreciable upgrade in the jockey department in this spot. Bombs away !  You can feel free to go ahead and draw an upwards arrow alongside the speed figures of #2 BOBBYFROMTHEPALM, as this one is seemingly figuring it out as he goes along, and that maiden breaker at the end of 2019 was a visually impressive one. Pre-layoff pilot comes back ( which we always dig ), and gelding seems to be smartly spotted for his return to work. #7 VIOLENT DELIGHTS was a lively and well clear runner up when protected against the claim back on June the 18th, and can't fault those taking a favorable view. 


Race  8 

1.Pallas Athene

2.Olympic Games ( Fr )


#5 PALLAS ATHENE is a steady if unspectacular sort who although a bit light from a numbers' aspect, has won two of three, and J/T combination have done well in tandem. Price play in a race with no first draft tosses. #6 OLYMPIC GAMES (FR) smacked into the starting apparatus when making her North American bow five weeks back in Hallandale Beach, and secures the leading rider for her Empire State debut. Would be aided with some pace to cut into. #9 WEGETSDAMUNNYS owns a win and a fourth from as many second off the break jammies, and has yet to miss a superfecta on the Widener. May come along for a share.  OFF TURF: 7-4-3-6-11


Race  9 

1.High School Crush


3.Magical Romance

#6 HIGH SCHOOL CRUSH was a solid & well clear runner up directly in front of a next out winner in her only "3rd off the L/O" spot, and bested more than half the field at 20-1 in this race on 6/25. Bug leaves a lot to be desired, but we'll nibble. #7 PAINITE ( scratched on Friday for this ) was grotesque in the most recent, but is an obvious factor if able to get back to the penultimate try. #3 MAGICAL ROMANCE closes out our race, day, week, month, and meet at Belmont right here. Thank you all for your loyal patronage, and we'll see you Thursday, at...The Spaaaaahhhhhhh......   NOTE: AS OF 11:40, THE #5 WILL BE A BEATABLE FAVORITE.


Belmont          ( Current ):       29-240  ( $271.10 )  Beatable Favorites    7-16 ( 43.8% )    Favorites Win %      88-240 ( 36.7% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout