SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 7/10 - Keeneland - Maker's Mile
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's complete Belmont full card selections & analysis, merely go back one page.  

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


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Graded Stakes - 7/10 - Keeneland - Maker's Mile

 

Race 8 Maker's Mile 

1.Emmaus ( Ire ) 

2.War of Will

3.Parlor

#7 EMMAUS (IRE) had a touch of trouble at the onset of the Wise Dan back on the 20th of June, but still ended up splitting the field at 17-1 when losing by less than two lengths. Gelding owns a 3:1-1-0-1 record in "second off the layoff" attempts, and the score happened to come on this course. The adjusted figaro from the most recent 98.3 may not be enough to match up with the creme de la creme on their best days, but can definitely make some noise at a price should they stub their hooves a bit. #10 WAR OF WILL had a bit of a forgettable turf debut out in Arcadia, but leaves the blinks back in the tack room today and while deserving of another chance -- demand value. #3 PARLOR has been a part of the triple in four straight and six of his last seven on firm ground, and is reunited with the pilot from his last tally.  OFF TURF: 2-10-3-7-1

 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017