SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/18
  
  

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Second profitable day here yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 5 - #9 The Angry Man


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/18

 

Race  1

1.Holland

2.Mo Mischief

3.Bajan Rum 

#5 HOLLAND performed like he was wearing wooden shoes when starting things out beneath the Twin Spires three weeks back, but was a bit tardy to the party that afternoon, and the fact that this $400,000 'Toga purchase owns a 388 Tomlinson figure tells us that he deserves another chance. When it comes to his second time 2YO male starters at this level ridden by Santana at 30-1 or less ( < three fortnight layoff ), "The As Man" is a lively 4 for 7 , with mutuels of $7, $3, $6 & $4. #3 MO MISCHIEF is another well bred animal who will be led over by a 22% conditioner who's 12 fer 34 ( 35% ) with those fitting ALL these exact parameters. #1 BAJAN RUM owns a bullet gate breeze for today's initial foray, and that always merits inclusion.

 

Race  2

1.Mr. Kringle

2.Catch That Party

3.Polar Bear Pete

#1 MR. KRINGLE is a classy & consistent sort who has hit the board in 5 of 6 turf tries, and even in the blemish, lost by less than three. Slight edge in an open affair. #6 CATCH THAT PARTY was all out to get up in time directly in front of a next out winner down in Elmont on 6/13, and as a matter of fact, five returnees from that affair have rung up a cumulative three for five ledger ( in four separate heats ) with negligible change in the Beyer department. #8 POLAR BEAR PETE is second off the shelf & picks up Irad.  OFF TURF: 6-2-5-1-8

 

Race  3

1.Get Smokin

2.Gufo

3.Decorated Invader

#3 GET SMOKIN has loads of speed and lost by merely a neck when completing the exacta behind a return winner in his lone "second off the L/O" try, and switches to Jose Ortiz, under whom he's had better luck ( a placing ) than with Jose Lezcano ( a 5th place finish ). #5 GUFO has essentially improved w/each passing start ( at increasing class levels, which we always like to see ) , and tries to get one for the thumb today. #7 DECORATED INVADER has yet to toss in a clunker, and owns a two for two mark with Rosario in the irons. We like this one's ability to rate from just off the pace or come out of the clouds.  OFF TURF: 2-7-1-5-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:04, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Archumybaby

2.Letmetakethiscall

3.Jump for Joy

#5 ARCHUMYBABY overcame a tight trip to win in a tight finish 200 miles southward about a month ago, and win machine ( 13 for 40 ) digs it here as T-Gaff takes over for sidelined Saez. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #7 LETMETAKETHISCALL has the sort of quintessentially perfect "declining" dirt record ( 19:6-4-2 ) as it shows he has a schnozola for the line, and has been a part of the superfecta in five straight, 7 of 8, and 9 of 11. Logical. #6 JUMP FOR JOY got the job done in his lone "2nd off the respite" try on a fast track, and is 3:1-1-0 at The Spa. 

 

Race  5

1.Matty's Maurader

2.Red Flag Alert

3.Summer Tune

We're seeing this race a bit more clearly ( 4 of 7 make the first draft ) than the others, and will side with the #5 MATTY'S MARAUDER. Late foal outran his odds when closing out the triple in his first turf attempt, and is eligible to show some improvement in today's second off the shelf try. #10 RED FLAG ALERT showed a touch of early hoof before giving up the ghost first time out, but Franco sticks around, and this one is bred to do some good things on the gramma. #3 SUMMER TUNE displayed some improvement from the first start to the next ( while moving a bit up the ladder ), and now gets blinkers added for his third start at his third different venue with his 3rd different jockey.  OFF TURF: 6-10-2-1(MTO)-5  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 THE ANGRY MAN fills the bill, as Magner is a woeful 1-51 with turfers.

 

Race  6 

1.Nautilus

2.Girl Dad

3.Breakthrough

#3 NAUTILUS improved by about 15% from the first start to the followup, but as those were on the dirt, DRF Formulator wants to let you know that all is okay with today's surface switch. Why? Because over the last 1,826 days, Cox ( Dig it ! ) is a near poyfect 5 for 6 when sending his male maiden special weight runners on the verde for the first time off a break of 1-41 days ( first time routing as well ). The payouts for that sampling were $6 x 2, $3, $8 & $30, and note that the eye cups are now removed. #9 GIRL DAD finished next to last first time out, but is showing a nice "Z" pattern from that day, as Weaver charge lost three lengths from the quarter to the half before gaining 6+ from that point to the line. #8 BREAKTHROUGH has hit the board in both starts to date and who are we to rick that boat today?  OFF TURF: 4-1-3(MTO)-6-8

 

Race  7

1.Yaupon

2.Binkster

3.Blindwillie McTell

We're seeing this race as easy as 1-2-3. ( Not really, but aren't we so damn clever ! )  #1 YAUPON got smacked around purdy good in the CD bow four weeks in the rear, but got up by a hair at 9/2, and the bloodlines tell us that the end result was likely not an aberration. With no other speed signed on, we're expecting Rosario to pop this one right outta the gate today, as the others will have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #2 BINKSTER has partaken in the exacta in half of his lifetime sand starts, and has done the same in both outings right here. #3 BLINDWILLIE MCTELL closes out the tri. 

 

Race  8 

1.Shalako

2.Hoffenheim

3.Creative Style

#7 SHALAKO was last seen finishing up the triple vs. slightly weaker back in March, and gets a big time jockey switch from Correa to Franco this afternoon. Rudy runner rates a tepid nod in affair that's difficult for us to put our arms around. #1 HOFFENHEIM is but a neck shy of an unblemished 3 for 3 record when going one turn to two, and drops a whopping eight pounds while finding himself at his lowest level to date; leaving beneath because of the bug assigned, but note the score in the lone try when beginning from the pine. #3 CREATIVE STYLE got his photograph taken in his lone "third off the respite" foray, and is one for two beneath today's helmsman. 

 

Race  9 

1.Set Piece ( GB )

2.Ramsey Solution

3.Digital Age ( Ire )

#6 SET PIECE (GB) found the line first when landing in our great States five weeks back ( never easy to accomplish ), and namesake more than doubles his normative 26% batting average with 2nd off the hibernation optional turf stayers at 8-1 or lower ( $5, $6, $7 & $12 ). #2 RAMSEY SOLUTION has won three of four ( which includes his only spin on firm ground ) and shoots for his third win in as many attempts under the guidance of Gaffalione. #7 DIGITAL AGE (IRE) completes the "Big Ben/Empire State Building/ Blarney Stone" triple based on the recent lifetime best figaro and a score in his lone try at the trip.  OFF TURF: 2-3(MTO)-5-8-9

 

Race  10

1.Altaf

2.Tomalist's Shape

3.Velvet Crush

Extremely weak rendition of the Coaching Club American Oaks on tap, so we've included a 99 second snippet of Mom's Command, who won this race -- AND the Filly Triple Crown -- right here at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wGf43Gg_3a4 .  #3 ALTAF was visually impressive when scoring in going away fashion at Churchill on the 23rd of May, and while there's a ways to go to recoup some of that 200K breeding fee, this gal is bred to do some good things, and rates a big shot if a speed duel develops. Despite the fact that we're spotting #1 TONALIST'S SHAPE second here, we would jump all over the 9-5 morning line offering, as we believe she'll be odds on come post time. We always like when a trainer isn't scared to make an equipment change after a tally, and Saffie "Miracle Man" Joseph does just that here. Classy gal's lone loss was against Swiss Skydiver, who just ran second vs. the lads recently, and it's her race to toss away. #4 VELVET CRUSH ( no relation to the "Velvet Fog" ) lit up the tote board to the tune of $37 when going 2X on the dirt for the first time, and is as good as any for the show dough.  NOTE: AS OF 11:06, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SSELECTION.

 

Race  11

1.Farragut

2.Perfect Banker

3.Midnight Whiskey 

#9 FARRAGUT has been a part of the super in five straight after the initial foray, and is showing a "Quick" workout since the most recent for a shotcaller with the same moniker. Ho hum choice in a tight nitecap. #8 PERFECT BANKER switches over to what will likely be his preferred surface in this spot and totes the lightest impost of his working life. Could perk up at a price. #4 MIDNIGHT WHISKEY possesses enough speed to grab a slice.  NOTE: AS OF 11:15, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #6 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.  NOTE: NO SCRATCH, SO NO AMENDMENT.

  

Saratoga         ( Current ):       3-20      ( $61.70 )  Beatable   Favorites   1-1   ( 100% )     Favorites Win %          8-20   ( 40% )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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