SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/19
  
  

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Another profitable day for us here yesterday, as we had the following:

--Four on top winners of $27, $7 & $3 x 2 ( 2 for 2 in our Graded Stakes analysis )

--A cold $22 Triple

--A Quinella Box of $31

--Five Rolling Doubles of $106, $4, $17, $23 & $79 ( cold )

--Three Rolling Pick 3's of $208, $65 & $379

--A Rolling Pick 4 of $1,387

--A Rolling Pick 5 of $2,752

--And a successful Beatable Favorite !

 

Let's end the week in style !!


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/19

 

Race  1

1.Dubb entry

2.Power Up Paynter

3.Banana Thief

In a fairly open opener, we'll give the slight nod to the Michael Dubb owned entry of #1 DOWSE'S BEACH & #1A NEW YORK'S FINEST ( dig it ). The former closed out the triple in his first start away from the arrested Jason Servis, and nine year old "horse for the course" is a spectacular six for nine on the Mellon. ( No -- not Thornton Mellon ) Toss in a four for six record in "second off the layoff" attempts ( with only one win overlapping ) and you have the looks of a solid entrant. As for the #1A NEW YORK'S FINEST, this is another won who positively digs it here, as the 4-4 mark on firm ground attests to. Factor in a 9 fer 17 ledger at the trip, and here's another solid contestant. #2 POWER UP PAYNTER comes in today off a career best effort, and has missed the superfecta but once in eight lifetime outings. #7 BANANA THIEF is one of two off the bench on firm ground.  OFF TURF: 5-7-8-1A-6

 

Race  2

1.Hardcore Folklore

2.Deep Sea

3.Vicar's Legend

#7 HARDCORE FOLKLORE completed the triple in a near identical spot when making his first start off the claim for Charlie, and runner who owns a win over the strip is in a "3rd off the layoff try for the first time. Mild selection. #5 DEEP SEA finished directly in front of the above in their last tango, and has partaken in the exacta in about half of his starts. Logical. #3 VICAR'S LEGEND finds himself at an all time low today, and goes from Gutierrez to Rosario, which is the equivalent of first time Lasix; another in a 3rd off the shelf spot for the 1st time.

 

Race  3

1.In Front

2.Dovima

3.Halo City

#4 IN FRONT has shown the ability to be exactly that when they spring the latches, and with no other proven speed signed on, a wire job is well within reach. #1 DOVIMA was a lively runner up in a blanket finish down in Elmont on the 13th of June, and while another solid showing is always possible for this $440,000 auction purchase, keep in mind that her turf Tomlinson is an extremely low 223, so beware of the bounce. #3 HALO CITY overcame a bit of trouble when beginning her turf career three dozen days back, as she closed powerfully in losing by just one length of a horse. Three year old ran the last half mile in a crisp 46.02, and good guy Duggan may have this one sitting on a corker.  OFF TURF: 3-1-2-4-6

 

Race  4 

1.Ryan's Cat

2.Candy Cornell

3.Twelfth Labour

We have a couple of solid DRF Formulator stats in play here, and as we're writing this during a blackout ( literally ! ) up at The Spa, let's get to 'em directly...  #2 RYAN'S CAT ( who returns for the price claimed, despite having been kept in jail -- something that's always a positive ) will be led over by an hombre who's 8:4-1-1 with dirt runners of this ilk in the 51-251 day area ( $15 x 2, $8 & $58 ). #3 CANDY CORNELL ( available for purchase for the first time & 9 for 11 ITM @ the trip ) is backed by an 8 for 15 DRF Formulator stat, which has Diodoro at just that with his freshly claimed dirt stock at 9-1 or less in the 1-17 day range ( $3.08 ROI ). #6 TWELFTH LABOUR ( uncoupled entrymate with CC ) rounds out the top three.  NOTE: AS OF 11:20, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #5 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Thin White Duke

2.Generazio entry

3.Wicked Easy 

#4 THIN WHITE DUKE improved by about 11.2% in the adjusted Beyer dept. from his first outing to the next, and while switching surfaces for the first time in this spot, is just about as well bred for the green as the brown. A single for all those looking to mingle. Both the #1 STRONG DESIRE ( with a nicely hidden 48 & 4 breeze ) and the #1A MISCHIEVOUS DREAM ( 332 Turf Tommy ) comprise decent halves of the Generazio owned entry. #2 WICKED EASY went for 10X the stud fee at auction right here last year, and totes a couple'a bullet breezes for today's bow.  OFF TURF: 4-2-7-1A-1

 

Race  6 

1.Isotherm

2.Space Mountain

3.Lusitano

We have no read on this race whatsoever, so tread very lightly.  #8 ISOTHERM is clearly the class of this allotment, but has seen better days, so can be all yours for 50 large right here. Seven year old "horse" ( You treasure those almonds for as long as you can, buddy ! ) has a 3:1-0-2 mark when going from one turn to two, and the aforementioned score came on the inner. Would not be surprised to see this one closer to the pace here. #1 SPACE MOUNTAIN is 5:1-1-0 off a break in the action, one fer two when first to load on the verde, and has a snappy 4-15 boxscore at the distance. Recognize that the last time this fella was available for purchase ( at this price, no less ) a tally was the end result. #3 LUSITANO owns a win and a third from as many "3rd off the respite" spots, and has a 3 for 7 mark at today's distance of ground.  OFF TURF: 7-6(MTO)-9-1-4

 

Race  7

1.Caldee

2.Capstone Girl

3.Iaintfraidofnoghost

#4 CALDEE worked a best of 25 morning move on the 14th of June on the Belmont training track, and late foal lands in a manageable spot for the onset of her working life. Sire More than Ready did some fine work going short on the sand, as did the damsire, Harlan's Holiday. Tepid nod. #5 CAPSTONE GIRL posted a 48 & 3 across the street a baker's dozen days back, and homebred lures Johnny V. for the riding assignment. Who ya gonna call for the show money? #1 IAINTFRAIDOFNOGHOST, that's who. Second half of the uncoupled barnmate with 'Girl, worked in tandem with the above on 7/6, and is extremely well bred for this trip.

 

Race  8 

1.Officer Hutchy

2.Saratoga Love

3.Winifred J

#8 OFFICER HUTCHY immolated baccala in the return engagement, but we'll be forgiving, as this one had never finished worse than second in his prior quartet. Rice spots this one on the gramma for the first time, and although the turf pedigree leaves a lot to be desired, that's not as important in the dashes, as sometimes dirt speed can carry those with suspect bloodlines a long way. We came across not one -- but two sui generis trainer stats for Hutchy... Over the last 60 months, Rice is is 2 for 3 when putting local runners on the turf for the first time ( OTB 15-57 days ago ) with mutuels of $4 & 7. The second angle has us removing the locale, and adding "Today's jockey", as she's 3-4 w/that type ( $6 & $8 x 2 ). #2 SARATOGA LOVE went all the way to "procure & secure" the diploma two dozen days ago, and while a regression is possible, we'd be remiss to exclude. #3 WINIFRED J was a convincing victress in her only try off of this kind of L/O, and note that Javier returns despite the recent flop.  OFF TURF: 2-8-6-4-3

 

Race  9 

1.Lashara ( GB )

2.Cat's Pajamas

3.Blame Debbie

Featured race of the day is the Lake Placid, and it's a competitive affair.  #3 LASHARA (GB) has taken to the grass like a Toro lawnmower, having snagged the sheepskin down in Hallandale Beach before besting all but one at BEL 64 days later. Castellano fills in for Saez today, and he's done some decent work for Casse in the past. A.P.'s get is doing quite well on this surface, and we feel there's ample room for improvement as she goes along. #9 CAT'S PAJAMAS finished directly in front of our primary selection in their lone encounter, but loses four slots in the post position department, and maybe that makes the difference for half a length? #2 BLAME DEBBIE gave an honest showing behind a next out winner two fortnights back, and may last for a share.  OFF TURF: 6-2-7-5-4

 

Race  10

1.Mills

2.Shadow Rider

3.Grit and Glory

How do you not root for 10YO #8 MILLS, who makes his 71st start today, and goes over the 600G mark with a win? Barker charge was protected against the claim because of a new rule implemented in New York, and that proved to be smart, as he got up in time at 7/2. 14% clan is a lovely 8 for 20 ( 40% ) with mid level dirt stock who scored 12-50 days back ( 9-1 or < ) and has a positive return on investment in that area. #5 SHADOW RIDER takes a precipitous drop in class in the day's nitecap, and is 3:1-0-1 in third off the rest starts. Needs to prove that the pre & post layoff lines were a bit of an aberration. #6 GRIT AND GLORY won the first race of the meet on Thursday, and while we feel this chap will be declared, we'll chunk in just in case.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-7-8   NOTE: AS OF 11:26, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #4 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Saratoga         ( Current ):       5-31      ( $93.10 )  Beatable   Favorites   1-2   ( 50% )       Favorites Win %         13-31 ( 41.9% )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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