SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/22 - Steeplechase Day
  
  

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We finished up week one with a flat bet profit, so let's see if we can keep it up ! 

Happy Birthday, Queen Bee... 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/22 - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.Snap Decision

2.Belisarius ( GB )

3.Zanzi Win ( Fr )

We start out the week with the Jonathan Kaiser Stakes going over the jumps, and y'all know how much we enjoy steeplechase racing, as so often it gives horses a shot a second career. Our top selection, #2 SNAP DECISION is no exception to that concept, as while he was earning some checks going over the flat as recently as 2018, the truth of the matter is that he was just treading water. Gelding was privately purchase in the fall of that year, and has since become the hottest thing in the sport, amassing a 7:5-2-0 mark, including five straight. Six year old has displayed the ability to send or rate, and 21% shotcaller is a delovely 12:8-3-1 with ungraded jumpers who scored less than seven weeks ago & are 7-2 or less. #6 BELISARIUS (GB) ( another example of finding a new lease on life, as this one was running for $6,250 at Golden Gate in '17 ) was a well beaten but gamely runner up in the most recent, but adds 13 pounds, so we'll leave underneath. #4 ZANZI WIN (FR) completes the Apple Pie/Crumpets/Escargot triple based on the placing here last year in a similar layoff scenario. 

 

Race  2

1.Passcode

2.Wicksters Dream

3.Box of Chocolates

Continuing our tradition of watching the "Baseball" documentary whilst typing away up at The Spa tonight... #6 PASSCODE is more than doubled up in class for the first start off the claim a week & a half ago, and partook in the superfecta in both starts on this oval. Meeeeeeeekest of selections in a "Go walk the dog" race. #2 WICKSTER'S DREAM has improved with each passing start, and was privately purchased after the September score down at Hallandale Beach. Colt lands in a good spot for his first try against winners. You never know what you're gonna get with #3 BOX OF CHOCOLATES, as he has a habit of burning some bread at times, but drops 25% off the purchase, and we'll leave beneath. 

 

Race  3

1.Cross Border

2.Blewitt

3.Rapt

#1 CROSS BORDER all the way. #6 BLEWITT enters today off a career best Beyer number, and the paternal granddam was 3:2-0-1 on the sod -- something that should come in handy for today's initial turf foray. #5 RAPT has been a part of the super in 3 of 4 "second off the L/O" tries and may plod along for a share.  OFF TURF: 6-1-4-3-5

 

Race  4 

1.Macho Jack

2.Lost in Rome

3.Yankee Empire

#5 MACHO JACK hasn't faced the starter since last October, but new conditioner ( Rudy Rod ) has this one moving swiftly in the mornings, and T-Gaff off to a decent start at the stand. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #8 LOST IN ROME came along nicely to secure 20% of the purse directly behind a next out winner 26 days back, and was well clear of the show horse that afternoon. Blinkers are now added to a runner who's improved with each passing start. #6 YANKEE EMPIRE finished 2nd in this race about six weeks ago and deserves to be left in the mix.  NOTE: AS OF 12:09, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  5

1.Maxwell Esquire

2.Luna's in Charge

3.Go Rudy Go

You can go ahead and feel free to draw an upwards arrow along side the speed figures of #8 MAXWELL ESQUIRE, as this one is getting better and better over time. C-Squared gives this one a bit of class relief in today's 3rd off the respite attempt, and looms a deserving fave. #10 LUNA'S IN CHARGE had absolutely no excuse in the comeback engagement, so Bauer decides to shake things up a bit and spot this one on the gramma. This one was foaled out of a lady who was one of five in turf dashes ( banking more than 100 large ), and note that this 4YO was a solid runner up in his only "second off the hibernation" spin. #6 GO RUDY GO got the diploma in smart fashion down at Elmont on the 13th of June, and as the light bulb can often stay on after the first win, we'll leave in teh mix.  OFF TURF: 8-4-3-10-11(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.Just Right

2.Playthatfunnymusic

3.O Shea Can U See

We have a couple of solid DRF Formulator stats in play for today's 6th, so let's get to 'em directly. #7 JUST RIGHT ( who won by a pole in his lone try after a break in the action ), will be led over by an hombre who's a crisp 5-7 with locally based male mid level dirt dashers that were MIA for 51 days or more ( positive ROI ). #5 PLAYTHATFUNNYMUSIC ( who won his last start at this level ) is backed by a 4 for 10 trainer statistic, as Cannizzo is exactly that w/ Sar. runners of this ilk ( 28-50 days ). #4 OH SHEA CAN YOU SEE is 4 fer 9 at the dx., and what the hell's wrong with that? 

 

Race  7

1.Two Cent Tootsie

2.Unicorn Sally

3.Gaelic Gold

#4 TWO CENT TOOTSIE overcame a bit of trouble to procure second place money in a near identical spot down on Long Island at the end of June, and Albertrani has scored with half of his eight turf stayers at this level who crashed the board four dozen days back or less ( < 8-1 ). The mutuels in that sampling came back $5, $9, $10 & $14, and while we'll be utilizing this one on top, it's with more than an ounce of trepidation, as she's giving the impression of becoming a bit of a nibblah. #8 UNICORN SALLY has a decent overall body of work and bested all but one in her only second off the bench go round; sensible addition. #6 GAELIC GOLD was in a bit of a bottleneck when starting things out down in Oldsmar, Fla., and the pedigree tells us this one deserves another chance to make amends.  OFF TURF: 1-5-6-8-7

 

Race  8 

1.La Hara ( Ire )

2.Wild Medagliad'oro

3.Smile Bryan

We don't have the best of reads on this race, so tread lightly. #6 LA HARA (IRE) won both times he was sent to the post in 2019, but they backed off him after the October tally, and is an obvious factor if completely cranked up for this. #2 WILD MEDAGLIAD'ORO has yet to finish out of the money in his three turf tries, and you'll definitely have to know him early. #4 SMILE BRYAN is another who has fared well in limited attempts over the blades, and that includes a victory beneath today's pilot.  OFF TURF: 4-5-3-6-7(MTO)

 

Race  9 

1.Sharp Starr

2.Fight On Lucy

3.Princess Pinky

#3 SHARP STARR put it all together with a visually impressive maiden breaker at BEL on the 2nd of July, and the 383 Tomnlinson for the trip ( as well as continued improvement in the speed figure department ) say to us that there may be room for ample improvement here. #5 FIGHT ON LUCY completed the triple two spots behind a return winner in her lone try off a sabbatical, but we'll slide beneath because of the frigidness of the jock. #6 PRINCESS PINKY owns a win & a placing from as many "second off the break" outings and is as good as any for the show muffin. 

 

Race  10

1.Mani Pedi

2.Adriatic Holiday

3.Gringotts

#4 MANI PEDI was an even 4th against similar type when beginning her working life 200 miles south of us 40 days in the rear, and either Chad Brown doesn't have room for NYB maiden claiming fillies in his barn, or the owner wants to save some money on day rate, as 007 is now calling the shots. Six returnees from that day have come back to ALL show an average improvement of 12.3 pts. in the BSF depart. Gal gets off the rail a bit, and that may perk her up a touch. #2 ADRIATIC HOLIDAY takes the biggest drop in the game today for an outfit that's 11:6-2-0-2 with their maiden claiming dirt equines off L/O's of < 40 days ( $4 x 2, $6 x 2, $5 & $9 ), and there's a sub category of 3 fer 4 with the ladies. #7 GRINGOTTS outran her parimutuel offering when finishing up the exacta in her lone deal at this level, and gets a rider upgrade to Joel.  


Saratoga         ( Current ):       6-41      ( $100.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   1-2   ( 50% )       Favorites Win %       18-41 ( 43.9% )( As of Wednesday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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