SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/24


Just two chalky winners on a day laden with the stuff ( five of 'em ), but we're still on point with a flat bet profit for the meet as we're on a 19:6-6 run of late. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 9 - #8 Turned Aside

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/24


Race  1


2.Quantum Computing

3.Wishes and Dreams

#5 ASSUME ( "Assume? You know what happens when you assume??" Well, Felix Unger sure does, as proven in this 'Odd Couple' clip ! ) is a $300,000 auction purchase who can be all yours for 1/15th of that amount this afternoon, as she takes the biggest drop in the game today for Pletcher. Gal has yet to finish out of the money and owns a collection of speed figures which will make her a deserving favorite, especially when yo see that The Toddster is a whopping 9-13 when doing just this with his dirt dashers ( positive ROI ), and there's a sub category of 2-2 w/3YO's facing older. #3 QUANTUM COMPUTING has been laid up after each & every start, but Gargan has won with half of his dozen NYRA dirt sprints at this level ( 51-271 days ) with three year olds & upwards. There's a sub category of 1 fer 1 right here, and an overall return on investment of $3.73. #8 WISHES AND DREAMS undergoes a gamut of changes this afternoon ( turf to dirt, two turns to one, third off a break, and loses the eye cups ) -- may need to find only one of those palatable to land a share. 


Race  2

1.Overtime Olivia 

2.Party in the Sand

3.Kinky Sox

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #2 OVERTIME OLIVIA owns a win and a placing in her only T to D tries ( with the score being her lone start on a fast track in that study, w/the placing coming in a "3rd off the L/O" scenario. Grab her by the tail to get the glory. #4 PARTY IN THE SAND has hit the board in three of five going this distance of ground and closed out the superfecta the one & only time she was in a third off the shelf spot. #1 KINKY SOX owns a 4:1-3-0 record when starting from the pine, and may sit a perfect trip.  NOTE: AS OF 6:41 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.


Race  3


2.Mo Me Mo My

3.Henni Penny

#2 PEACEFUL ( "You said 'I can guarantee you piece of mind -- I don't feel so peaceful." What movie ? ) has improved with each passing firm turf try, culminating with a lively runner up finish in a near identical spot don in Elmont 26 days back; looking swell. #7 MO ME MO MY has been beset by back to back layoff lines, but may come along late. You can feel free to draw an upwards arrow alongside the turf starts of #4 HENNY PENNY -- as this one has gotten better over time -- and is reunited with the pilot from the maiden breaker.  OFF TURF: 7-6-2-3-5


Race  4 

1.Blunt Force

2.Cold Hearted Pearl

3.Stay Fond

#8 BLUNT FORCE got the job done versus slightly weaker down in Louisville nearly three fortnights back, and Amoss has Amassed a groovy 5 for 9 ledger with mid level gals who tallied a win 32-50 days back & are 9-1 or undah ( $4 x 2, $5 x 2 & $6 x 2 ). Smart 2 for 4 mark at the dist, duly noted, as is the 2:1-1-0 mark when last to load. #3 COLD HEARTED PEARL has the quintessentially perfect "declining" mark which we've grown to love ( 48:12-9-6 ) as it shows she has a schnoz for the finish line. Six year old has partaken in the triple in both "third off the respite" dirt attempts over a glib surface. #6 STAY FOND won his only 1X try in a 2nd off the shelf spot and also found the line first in her only spin going seven panels. 


Race  5

1.Jill's a Hot Mess

2.Shanes Pretty Lady

3.Party at Page's 

We don't have the best of reads on this affair, so tread lightly.  #6 JILL'S A HOT MESS starts for his 3rd different trainer in as many calls to the post, but it happens to be for someone who's owned this one all along & comes in today off a gamely placing at Belmont. Logical selection, but don't get too excited. #10 SHANES PRETTY LADY was performing in pedestrian fashion in the mornings until the nice gate move on the 12th, and draws well while being decently bred for this trip. #1 PARTY AT PAGE'S worked out of the gate in 59 & 2 over at Oklahoma on Friday, and gets a just returned Saez for his overture.  NOTE: AS OF 11:43, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #7 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  6 

1.Ebony ( Fr )

2.Cap de Creus

3.Elle M'a Souri ( Fr ) 

Another tight affair with no first draft eliminations.  #7 EBONY (FR) is in a second off the layoff spot today, and completed the exacta ( or whatever the hell they have over in France ) in a similar spot last year. The initial American foray left a bunch to be desired, as she immolated a bunch of baccala that day, but eye cups are now a part of the mix, and Johnny V. sees fit to ride. #9 CAP DE CREUS was a gamely runner up behind a next out winner at BEL 33 days in the rear, but we'll leave this chronic nibbler ( 10:0-5-0 on the gramma ) underneath. #1 ELLE M'A SOURI (FR) has hit the board in four straight starts when the jockey stayed aboard, and that includes a gut wrenching nose placing at CD around turkey time.  OFF TURF: 3-8(MTO)-1-9-2


Race  7


2.Towering Gaze


#8 SNICKET ( by "Lemon" Drop Kid --- "Lemony Snicket...ya get it ? ) had an hellacious journey in the most recent and lays over these with a tidier sojourn; a single for us. #2 TOWERING GAZE is another who had a bit of difficulty last time out, but can cause a bit of a ruckus if able to sit a cleaner trip. #10 QUANTITATIVBREEZIN was a slightly green but nicely clear runner up vs. maiden platers on the 25th of June, and while the figure earned that day was solid enough, the pedigree tells us that a regression is possible this afternoon, and while we'd be remiss in excluding, we'll keep beneath.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-9-2-10-7


Race  8 


2.Free Enterprise

3.Mount Travers

#5 CHATEAU appears to be the clear speed of this deal, is 4:1-1-0 in 2nd off the break spins, 10:3-3-2 at the trip, 4:2-1-0 when available for purchase, and found the line first in her only trip to the Spa. Sensible on the drop. #7 FREE ENTERPRISE is a lightly raced five year old who has disappointed backers on more than one occasion, and while we're not really digging this one on the whole, he's sort of one that's tough to leave out, no? #1 MOUNT TRAVERS closed out the triple in his lone "third off the hibernation" jammie, and is 4:2-1-0 when breaking from the innermost two slots ( compared to having a 5:0-1-2- mark otherwise. 


Race  9 

1.Old Chestnut

2.Power up Paynter

3.Fore Left

Today's featured event is named after a longtime favorite, Quick Call, who made more than 88 calls to the post, positively LOVED it here at The Spa, and most importantly, aided upstate prisoners in their rehabilitation. Gelding lived to an amazing 35 1/2 years of age, and it would be wonderful to see a small montage on this one before the race.  As for the heat itself, #4 OLD CHESTNUT more than outran his 23-1 parimutual offering when collecting 12% of the purse in Nassau County back in June, and sheds 96 ounces off that effort. Honest sort is looking live here. #7 POWER UP PAYNTER was in a logjam last time out, and gets a jock improvement to Irad here. #5 FORE LEFT is the clear class of this deal, and although he was 10th of 13 in the lone turf try, it was against tougher while going longer. May sit this trip.  OFF TURF: 4-5-1-6(MTO)-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #8 TURNED ASIDE is nconditioned by someone who's 0-12 with ungraded turf stovk ridden by Lezcano.  NOTE: AS OF 11:47, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #2 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10



3.My Primo

We won't be delving any deeper than this troika.   #3 BRICCO showed a bit of improvement from his first start to the next, and 007 does wellwith those fitting these parameters, as he's three of five in that regards ( $6 x 2 & $17 ). #1 AINTITFUNKYNOW takes the plunge for today's third off the L/O engagement, and should be no worse than 3rd here for those looking to grind out a few show shekels. #7 MY PRIMO posted an adjusted 70.2 in his lone "brown to green" go round, and may spice up the exotics a bit.  OFF TURF: 15(AE)-14(AE)-1-3-12


Saratoga         ( Current ):       12-61     ( $151.10 ) Beatable   Favorites   1-2   ( 50% )       Favorites Win %       27-61 ( 44.3% )( As of Friday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout