SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/25
  
  

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Just a couple'a chalks yesterday, but we're still on a 29:8-9 run of late with an overall flat bet profit. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - #5 Munning's Muse


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/25

 

Race  1

1.Elegant zip 

2.Jc's Shooting Star

3.Speightstown Gal

#3 ELEGANT ZIP ( cross entered on Thursday, so check the changes ) split the field at 30-1 when going over the blades for the first time, and the pedigree suggests theta there's a bit of room for improvement today. Chestnut lady goes from an apprentice to a journeyman this afternoon ( an angle we like ), and we'll give this one a tepid nod in a wide open opener. #4 JC'S SHOOTING STAR ( also spotted a couple'a days ago ) has a bunch of back class and got her photograph taken the only time she was available for purchase; Usable. #1 SPEIGHTSTOWN GAL has improved after each passing start, culminating with a sharp win against slightly weaker down in Elmont five weeks back. Obvious factor, but be aware of a possible bounce.  OFF TURF: 8-2(MTO)-3-7-1

 

Race  2

1.Midnight Surprise

2.Barbara's Bank

3.Vivazano

#7 MIDNIGHT SURPRISE posted her best workout yet on 7/26 ( a half from the gate in 48 flat ), and late foal totes along a hefty Tomlinson figure of 398 for the distance. Filly is a half to a 1 for 6 dirt sprinter, and sire went all the way for this J/T combo in his only call to the post. #6 BARBARA'S BANK was a gamely runner up in her first start off an elongated absence last month, and the two runners who sandwiched this one last out both came back to win in their subsequent outings, improving by ten points in the Beyer department. Don't dismiss. #2 VIVAZANO ( scheduled to run yesterday ) is an obvious factor if able to get back to the fast track effort.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MUNNING'S MUSE fills the bill, here, as barn is 0-17 with 2TS'ers at this level.

 

Race  3

1.Sistercharlie

2.Call Me Love ( GB )

3.Bramble Queen

Secondary featured event of the day is the Ballston Spa, and of course, Chad Brown has 40% of the field.  #5 SISTERCHARLIE won her only start on the inner, her lone try at the trip, is 3 for 4 off a break in the action, and $3.6M earner has the sort of "declining" mark which we love so much ( 15:10-3-1 ). Will take some pounding at the proverbial windows, but deservedly so. #1 CALL ME LOVE (GB) is 3:1-1-1 off a respite, and the adjusted figaro of 102.9 puts this gal right in the thick of things -- IF able to get back to it. #2 BRAMBLE QUEEN is a bit short in the #'s dept., but we have no problems including a longshot who's won three of her last four on the sod.  OFF TURF: 1-2-4(MTO)-3-5

 

Race  4 

1.Gracetown

2.Wedontbelieveher

3.Gone Glimmering

#1 GRACETOWN was fanned seven wide in a seven horse field by Lezcano ( Nurse !! ) last time out, but still got up for second, and historically, is 2:0-1-1 in "second off the L/O" tries, while having that same mark when breaking from the innermost three slots ( different races ). Meeeeeeeeeekest of selections in a blase' affair. #5 WEDONTBELIEVEHER was kept in jail after the June 21st claim, so doesn't have to be hiked 25%+ here, and uncoupled barnmate with the above sheds two pounds off the score. #4 GONE GLIMMERING ( one part of another uncoupled entry ( sighhhhh ) in this seven horse affair ) displayed improved speed when having eye cups added in the most recent and may improve even more in today's 3rd start off the layoff. 

 

Race  5

1.Sir Alfred James

2.Unprecedented

3.Dubai Bobby 

#9 SIR ALFRED JAMES was visually impressive when getting the job done at first asking down at CD, and in regards to today's initial turf attempt, you should know that his maternal grandsire was a sensational 7:5-1-0 at this trip ( on firm ground ). Repeat well within reach. After breaking well last time out, #6 UNPRECEDENTED was ( for some reason ) brought back to 6th, and paid the ultimate price when being bottled up & checking off heels in a runner up finish. Would like to see new pilot Johnny be a bit more aggressive with this one early on. #5 DUBAI BOBBY ( not seen since National Hangover Day ) won by more than half'a dozen in his lone start off a hibernation, and has been working well for the comebacker.  OFF TURF: 10-9-1-6-4

 

Race  6 

1.Skyler's Scramjet

2.Aristocratic

3.Autostrade

We're having a conflict of emotions with the #4 SKYLER'S SCRAMJET here. On the one hand, we're jazzed by the fact that Nevin is a juicy 6 for 10 with mid level dirt stock dropping 50% or more ( less than six weeks ), and has a positive return on investment in that regards. On the OTHER hand, today's pilot ( according to my stat buddy, Paul ) -- Reylu Gutierrez -- ( as of Thursday morning ) is on a woeful Oh-fer-53 streak ( recently 28:0-1-0 ) and has won one more race than I have as a jockey in his last 102 starts. Using, but yikes. #5 ARISTOCRATIC ( 16:4-3-4 @ the dist. ) has partaken in the super in all three "second off the shelf" engagements, and shedrow has won with a third of their 15 locally based mid level dirt runners who missed the board less than 44 days ago ( 19-1 or undah ). #2 AUTOSTRADE is one for two off in "2nd off the absence" starts and has been a part of the triple both times he;s been loaded first. 

 

Race  7

1.Perjury Trap

2.Don Juan Kitten

3.Montauk Daddy 

#6 PERJURY TRAP hasn't been in action since procuring the diploma back in the fall, and the adj. figure from that day of 84.8 would put him smack dab in the middle of things -- if able to get back to that effort. Pre-layoff jockey returns. #3 DON JUAN KITTEN has ( from a Beyer speed figure perspective ) been a fairly steady performer thus far ( IT in three of four tries ) and has been conducting his morning affairs in a professional manner since last in action. #9 MONTAUK DADDY usually gives a good account of himself and gets in light.  OFF TURF: 7-1(MTO)-3-1A-6-10

 

Race  8 

1.Locally Owned

2.Money Moves

3.Blugrascat's Smile

#8 LOCALLY OWNED bested slightly weaker by a half down at Churchill on the 26th of June, and that start happened to be his first one at today's distance of ground. Four year old gelding has been a part of the super both times he's began from the outside, and we'll give this one the slimmest of margins in a race that's difficult to decipher.  #1A MONEY MOVES went for a little less than a million clams at Ocala last April, and has done little to give the impression that it was a purchase made in error, as he's won both starts to date in professional fashion. After two pedestrian workouts, The Toddster tightened up the screws a bit with a nice work on Sunday, and we;re expecting another solid performance. #4 BLUGRASCAT'S SMILE has been in the superfecta in all three "3rd off the layoff" attempts, and may come along for a piece. 

 

Race  9 

1.Jimmy Jazz

2.Simply

3.Sanctuary City

#9 JIMMY JAZZ more than outran his parimutal offering in a near identical spot down in Elmont, N.Y., as he finished an honest 3rd when being reacquainted with blinkers. Bush charge lost by only a length right here 11 months in the rear, and we'll nibble at 10-1. #3 SIMPLY came along nicely in the comebacker, running the last half mile in a zippy 45.22 seconds, and should move forward with that under his girthstrap. #8 SANCTUARY CITY got up in time to snag the sheepskin for good guy Ferraro 200 miles southward on the 5th of July, and poses a big threat with any sort of pace to cut into.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-3-10-8-15(MTO)

 

Race  10

1.Firenze Fire

2.Whitmore

3.Lexitonian

Big race of the day is the A.G. Vanderbilt, and for some history on this heroic man who gave up his life vest to a female passenger aboard the sinking Lusitania ( despite not being able to swim ), please go to this website https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alfred_Gwynne_Vanderbilt .  #3 FIRENZE FIRE was a convincing winner of the True North two fortnights back, marking his first win since being removed from the barn of the indicted Jason Servis, and although he may not have beaten much that day, perhaps he's rounding back into peak form. You don't need to convince us to take a shot on a 4-1 shot who's won 10 of 22 on a glib surface. #2 WHITMORE has been a part of the exacta in a sensational 18 of 21 tries at the trip, so right off the bat, what the hell's wrong with that? Seven year old is 6:3-3-0 when returning after being away, but we'll leave beneath as he's lost seven straight in graded company. #1 LEXITONIAN completes our "3-2-1 blastoff" triple.

 

Race  11

1.Eighty Seven North

2.Go Zappem

3.Baby Girl

#2 EIGHTY SEVEN NORTH ( the highway which brings one here ) improved by about 10% in his only "second off the L/O" spin, and if that were to occur in the day's finale, then a 58.1 would be the end result, which is worth a shot at 12-1 w/Franco on board. #8 GO ZAPPEM has posted two decent numeros in the turf jammies and is logical if fully cranked up & sound. #10 BABY GIRL fought the good fight in grabbing 12% of the purse on July the 12th, but that was going short, so we'll keep in the "unders".  OFF TURF: 5-2-6-4-10 


Saratoga         ( Current ):       14-71     ( $159.70 ) Beatable   Favorites   2-3  ( 66.7% )   Favorites Win %       30-71   ( 42.3% )( As of Saturday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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