SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/26


Couple'a profitable winners here yesterday, as we're guaranteed a positive R.O.I. until at least Wednesday. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/26


Race  1

1.Silver Token

2.Advanced Strategy


#5 SILVER TOKEN rallied strongly to lose by less than two in the comebacker, running the last half mile in 45.69 seconds. The only other time this one was in a similar layoff scenario, a 22.3% improvement was shown in the adjusted Beyer department, and if that happens today, than this one could be tough to gun down. #3 ADVANCED STRATEGY is a January foal who put forth a good showing right outta the box back in December, and while the turf pedigree is fairly low, it's a good deal better than that of the sand, so we see no palpable reason to dismiss. #2 SHANDIAN may not have dug the soft going last time out, but keep in mind that front wraps were added, and you may want to take a peek during the warmups.  OFF TURF: 4-6-5-1-3


Race  2

1.Work Out

2.Bellamy Dolce

3.Judge N Jury

Utilizing the "Diamond in the Rough" methodology with the #1 WORK OUT here, as there's a decent gate breeze ( 48 & 4 ) amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves. What really intrigues us, however, is that Leah -- who normally wins just 9% of the time -- is a snappy 4 for 11 ( 36% ) with 2YO firsters at this level ( 30-1 or less ). The mutuels for that study were a healthy $6, $14, $9, $4 & $11, and Jose Ortiz is enticed to ride. #4 BELLAMY DOLCE is bred decently enough to make an impression. #2 JUDGE N JURY is a $7,500 bred animal who went for more than 26X times that at auction, owns a healthy 387 Tomlinson for the distance, and has a bullet in the holster for today's bow. 


Race  3

1.Shootin the Breeze

2.Road to Meath

3.Reckless Spirit

#5 SHOOTIN THE BREEZE was kept in jail after the June 14th claim, and is smartly brought back at the same price because of such by Maker. Speaking of said shotcaller, he has a crisp 4-6 mark with freshly purchased mid level turf stayers who crashed the fiesta 17-67 days back ( ridden by Irad ), with payoffs of $10, $4, $9 & $6. Would be aided by some pace to cut into. #10 ROAD TO MEATH has been a part of the superfecta in all four starts off the bench and may perk up with the recent loss of his procreating abilities ( it sure as hell would get my attention ). #2 RECKLESS SPIRIT was bred to an animal who stands for $200,000, and to date has earned about 1/10th of that ( yikes ), so it's safe to say that better was expected of this one. That being said, he owns a 2:1-1-0 record at the dist., and is another who's now sans tes-tee-klees.  OFF TURF: 9-16(MTO)-10-4-5


Race  4 

1.Double Shot

2.The Great Dansky

3.Victory Boulevard

#3 DOUBLE SHOT lost by the length of the stretch when going over the blades about five weeks ago, so that idea has been quickly abandoned, as the brown stuff is back in play. Honk if you like Donk when making this surface switch with those up for sale for the first time ( 15-67 days ) as he's a tight three of four in that area ( $10, $5 & $13 ) with a sub category of 2-2 in dirt dashes. Demand a little value with Davis on a cold streak. #6 THE GREAT DANSKY has the best overall collection of speed figures in the bunch, and barn is 3 fer 5 w/second off the snag mid level dirt stock in the 28-50 day bracket ( $3, $4 & $7 ). #2 VICTORY BOULEVARD is 4:2-2-0 with a "For Sale" stickah attached to his rump and can land a share.


Race  5

1.Mad Maddy

2.River Tiber


From a speed figure perspective, #1 MAD MADDY regressed a bit in her secondary outing, but you can't deny her grittiness, as she's been a well clear runner up in both calls to the post. From a Tomlinson figure aspect, this one should be better on the gramma, which is no surprise, as A.P.'s get have been doing well on the stuff. If Ricardo doesn't get to the top right away, we'd be happy with a pocket trip. #10 RIVER TIBER was a bit green when immolating baccala first out down in Lexington, but the top flight pedigree tells us to give this half million dollar sale another shot. #2 OUTADORE ( the second half an an uncoupled entry with R.T. ) has been faring well enough in the A.M. to incorporate into the mix.  OFF TURF: 8-9-11(MTO)-3-6


Race  6 

1.Logic N Reason

2.Taranta ( Ire )

3.Ginger Kitty

#3 LOGIC N REASON was in the rear with the gear when returning off of a "half the calendar" type break, but had to check off heels that afternoon, so perhaps you can consider this her first true start with Lasix? T-Gaff having a fine meet, and C-Squared has been out of his mind. We'll bite. #5 TARANTA (IRE) closed with a rush to pick up the second place check down at the Bayou at the end of June, and as this one had done some good things over in the land of love prior to that, we'll toss in the hopper. #4 GINGER KITTY was heading in the right direction before the post layoff flop; toss in at a big numero.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-6-3-10(MTO)-8(MTO)-7


Race  7

1.Fast Getaway


3.Skipin On Orchard

#8 FAST GETAWAY overcame a bit of trouble to score in convincing fashion in Elmont on 6/25, and not only has this gelding completed the exacta in both "2nd off the bench" tries, but is backed by a fantastic DRF Formulator stat as well. Over the last 60 months, Rice is positively cooking with her allowance turf sprinters who found the line first < 62 days ago, as she's 10-18 with that caliber, and has a whopping R.O.I. of $4.60 to boot. #9 CRYOGENIC got up in time to best state bred foes down in Hallandale Beach 37 days in the rear, and owns a sweet 10:4-2-1 "declining" mark at the trip; 2:1-1-0 ledger with Irad in the irons is duly noted. #1 SKIPIN ON ORCHARD has some early hoof and mal last for a share beneath a jock who's colder than a Mister Softee malted these days.  OFF TURF: 7-1-4-6-9


Race  8 

1.Happy Saver

2.Beau Luminarie

3.Family Biz

#2 HAPPY SAVER was a powerful winner at a tricky distance when beginning his working life down at Big Sandy on the 20th of June, and TP rolls right along when stretching out his second time dirt runners off a maiden tally 22-50 days back, as he's won 6 of 8 with a positive return on investment ( 6-1 or less ). #5 BEAU LUMINARIE completed the exacta in essentially the same race down in C.D. a month ago, and gets a jockey upgrade off that performance. #1 FAMILY BIZ is 1 for 5 when breaking from the pine; as good as any for the show bread. 


Race  9 

1.Seismic Wave


3.Olympico ( Fr )

Today's featured heat is named after Bernard Baruch, and for some history on this famous horse owner & philanthropist, go right here . #1 SEISMIC WAVE comes in today bringing along a lifetime best Beyer speed figure, and shotcaller Mott ( from a small sampling ) is 5:3-1-0-1 with Saratoga based graded turf routers at 11-1 or less off of this kind of break. Those who found the line first paid $20, $6 & $8, and there's a sub category of 1-1 with Jose in the stirrups. #6 HALLADAY pitched a perfect performance when going coast to coast like butter and toast at the nation's southernmost track, and gutsy grey who always gives a good account of himself got the job done in his lone attempt off a hibernation. #5 OLYMPICO (FR) lit up the tote board at 19-1 the last time he returned off a break in the action, and can definitely grab a piece.  OFF TURF: 5-2-4-1-3


Race  10

1.Seize the Day

2.Turn of Events

3.Glynn County

#1 SEIZE THE DAY ( by 'Carpe Diem'...ya get it ? ) didn't show a whole heck of a lot in the Arcadian overture, and gets the olll' "Chop 'n Drop" for his Empire State debut. Should crush these if able to replicate the adj. 84.1 ( earned at a higher level ). #10 TURN OF EVENTS slides down the ladder for the 2nd straight time here, and gets improvement in the saddle for such. #9 GLYNN COUNTY undergoes a gamut of changes for new bossman Thomas in the day's finale ( in for a tag, new locale, blinks left in the barn & Javy aboard ) and would only need to find one of those agreeable to make an impression.  OFF TURF: 14(MTO)-10-3-12-9 

Saratoga         ( Current ):       16-82     ( $186.10 ) Beatable   Favorites   2-3  ( 66.7% )   Favorites Win %       33-81   ( 40.7% )( As of Sunday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout