SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/29 - Steeplechase Day


Just one chalky winner for us on Sunday, but we maintain a positive ROI to start out week three ! 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 6 - #3 Pete's Play Call

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/29 - Steeplechase Day


Race  1


2.Rosbrian Entry

3.Whitman's Poetry

Starting out the week on a right note with a jumper !!  #3 ANTICIPATING was an honest enough 3rd of 14 when beginning his 2020 campaign back in mid June, and did such despite a bit of an erratic journey ( 2nd, then 7th, then 3rd ). Slim margin in a toughie. Both the #1 SIXTY FIVE (FR) & #1A GLOBAL FREEDOM (GB) comprise decent parts of the Rosbrian Farms tandem, as the former is a sensational 4:3-1-0 in second off the layoff scenarios ( 1 for 1 in jumps ), and the latter was a smart maiden winner on the 13th of June. #7 WHITMAN'S POETRY is 7:2-1-2 in "second off the layoff" attempts and sheds six pounds off the most recent. 


Race  2

1.Big Al's Gal


3.Miss Ross 

#1 BIG AL'S GAL showed zippo in the career starter, but this one is likely better bred for the brown stuff, and is backed by a small -- but tight -- DRF Formulator statistic. Over the last 1,826 days, Papa Englehart is 3 fer 4 when making this surface switch with his 2TS'ers ( 70 days or less ), w/payoffs of $10, $12 & $6 in that department. #4 BELLEZA was a well beaten but well clear runner up vs. slightly tougher last time out, and Rice is a more than nice 6-9 with second off the layoff maiden claiming dirt stock off breaks of 50 days or <, with a positive ROI as well. #8 MISS ROSS completes our troika of trainers with good stats here, as Levine is a solid 8:3-1-2 with locally based runners of this ilk who crashed the party less than seven weeks back & are 13-1 or lowah. 


Race  3


2.Stormy Derby Day 

3.Positive Skew

We thought the #11 TRADEABLE had a decent shot last time out, but weren't particularly enthused with the lack of aggression heading into the turn. That being said, filly only lost by three that day, and has blinkers added for today's initial stretchout. Note that Ferraro runners have hit the board in three of six thus far at the stand -- all at decent odds. #6 STORMY DERBY DAY is another one having the hood affixed in this spot, and if you can forgive the recent flop, then this one rates a shot if able to get to the penultimate outing. #9 POSITIVE SKEW outran her odds when completing the exacta at 25-1 32 days in the rear, and the show horse from that day got the job done next time out.  OFF TURF: 9-7-3(MTO)-5-4


Race  4 

1.Shadwell Entry



Both the #1 AJHAR ( adjusted Beyer speed figure of 76.8 in the lone routing attempt ) and the #1A ASHIHAM ( led over by a shotcaller who's 6-13 with maiden special weight dirt stayers who were 1-2-3 14-50 days ago & are ridden by Johnny ( 4-1 or beneath ) make up fair halves of the Shadwell stables entry. #2 HOMETOWN exits a fairly competitive maiden heat where six comebackers have accumulated a 6:2-2-1-1 ledger ( from five different heats ), with an average Beyer improvement of 12.5 pts. per horse. #5 ZUZUDINI put forth a solid placing when finishing just in front of a next out victor the last time he on on the sand, and picks up Franco. 


Race  5

1.Wish Upon

2.Niko's Dream

3.Classical Lady 

There are a couple of solid sets of Formulator statistics in play here, so let's get to 'em directly.  #5 WISH UPON ( who has had a couple of hellacious journeys of late ) will be brought over to the races by a bossman who is totally boss with filly turf routers ( 3YO & up ) in the 68-114 day zip code, as he's a near perfect 5 for 6 with that type -- and just look at the prices !! ( $58, $28, $8, $6 & $4 ). #6 NIKO'S DREAM has steadily improved with each passing start, culminating with a gamely neck score down in Hallandale Beach last time out. Tagg is "it" with fillies going long on the lawn off breaks of 68-78 days, as he's 4 fer 7 with 'em ( $3, $10, $14 & $19 ), with a sub category of one for one in ungraded stakes. #4 CLASSICAL LADY lost by just a honker in a near identical spot most recently, and deserves your respect once again.  OFF TURF: 6-7-1-2-3


Race  6 

1.The Big Fundamental

2.Reed Kan

3.Lone Rock

#6 THE BIG FUNDAMENTAL hasn't seen the scene in a couple of St. Patrick's Days, but lightly raced seven year old gelding was a a spirited runner up in his only start off a sabbatical, and the Toddster is a sweet 5-8 with Saratoga based mid level dirt sprinters away for 50+ days ( $4, $5 x 2, $7, & $8  ). Johnny wouldn't climb aboard if the horse wasn't alright. #1 REED KAN definitely is a game ridgling ( 21:9-1-3 ), and Kantarmaci has an 8 for 20 record with male dirt sprinters who won off of this type of L/O & are 9-1 or below ( 3YO's & upward ). #2 LONE ROCK is backed by a 3 for 8 trainer stat, as Mott is just that with mid level dirt stock on this circuit off layoffs of 51-69 days ( 15-1 or lowah ).  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 PETE'S PLAY CALL doesn't make our first draft, so why would we accept favoritism?


Race  7



3.Mick's Star

#1 BACKTOHISROOTS lost by less than a length in his only "2nd off the break" try, and Terranova is a smart four for nine with SAR sod sprinters who were ITM 27-67 days ago & are 12-1 or < ( $6, $8, $13 & $9 ). #4 SAYYAAF owns a bunch of early speed and has won one of two right here; deserving fave. #6 MICK'S STAR found the line first in his only two turn to one turn spin, and in doing such, improved his speed # by about 15%. If that were to occur today, then an adjusted figaro of 97.1 would be the end result -- and that would put him smack dab in the middle of things.  OFF TURF: 3-2(MTO)-10-1-7


Race  8 

1.Six Percent

2.Bebe Banker

3.Too Early

On a day chock full of Daily Racing Form Formulator statistics, we have two more in today's eighth... #1 SIX PERCENT got his Polaroid taken the lone time he was in a second off the shelf spot, and Double J is a large & in charge 6 for 9 with allowance dirt routers who have raced less than 51 days ago ( $10, $9, $4, $5 & $3 x 2 ). #2 BEBE BANKER blitzed conditional claimers back on the 21st of June, and Rudy Rod has scored with half ( "Hahf" ) of his dozen runners fitting this criteria who tallied a win 26-50 days back ( $43 x 3, $4 & $7 x 2 ). #9 TOO EARLY has the all important win over the track and is wheeled right back off of that maiden breaking effort. 


Race  9 

1.Just Howard



#4 JUST HOWARD owns a win & a third from as many "3rd off the absence" deals, is a groovy 10:4-0-3 going this distance of ground, and 16% clan more than triples that rate ( 6:3-1-1 ) with optional turf routers running at The Spa off a break of between 11 & 67 days ( ridden by Jose ). #2 THERAPIST is two for three in "true" second off the pine engagements, and has that same mark when going 1X to 2X ( with one win overlapping ). Gotta love the 8 of 17 lifetime ledger. #1 WISSAHICKON ( a creek in Pennsylvania ) is two for three after a break in the action, has a touch of back class, and like just bout all of the Euro shippers -- gets the wonder drug for the first time.  OFF TURF: 1-2-6(MTO)-7-9


Race  10

1.Zaccapa ( Fr )

2.Let Them Eat Cake

3.American Goddess

#1 ZACCAPA (FR) was an energetic runner up when making his North American debut on ( fittingly ) Independence Day, and as this one has closed out the exacta in three straight performances, makes all kinds of sense in the nitecap. #2 LET THEM EAT CAKE has posted two legit figs in both starts on the gramma and has been working bullets for the return to action. White hot Rosario gets the nod. #8 AMERICAN GODDESS has gone 57-59-73 in her triad of turf sprints, so who quite knows where her ceiling is in that regards.  OFF TURF: 5-1A-6-4-9 

Saratoga         ( Current ):       17-93     ( $190.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   2-3  ( 66.7% )   Favorites Win %       37-93   ( 40.5% )( As of Wednesday morning ) 

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout