SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Graded Stakes Selections & Analysis - 7/18 - Monmouth Park - Haskell/Mth. Cup
  
  

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Just a reminder that for today's full cared selections & analysis for Saratoga, merely go back one page. 

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 10 - #2 Monongahela


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Graded Stakes - 7/17 - Monmouth - Haskell/Monmouth Cup

 

Race 10 

1.Global Campaign

2.Bal Harbour 

3.Bodexpress

#1 GLOBAL CAMPAIGN showed absolutely nothing, so Hough decides to shale things up a bit with the blinker removal for today's 3rd off the layoff try. Colt goes from one turn to two today, and the only other time he attempted that, a 2+ length victory was the end result. Hoping for a nice pocket trip and a seam late. #9 BAL HARBOUR hasn't been seen since Pearl Harbor day, but gelding is 3:2-0-1 off the bench & 4:1-2-1 here at the shore. Sensible "unders" candidate, given the back class. #10 BODEXPRESS hasn't been in action since the end of March, but found the line first in his only comeback off a sabbatical, and appears to be the clear speed of this deal, which is historically always dangerous in this race.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #2 MONONGAHELA fits in this category, as Chad Brown is 0-8 with graded dirt stayers in this day range who missed the board last out ( 9-1 or less ).  NOTE TO ALL @SaratogaBets , @BataviaBets , @YonkersRaceway & @capitalotb READERS: Due to a gate scratch at @MonmouthPark , the #7 will be our 3rd selection.

 

Race 12 

1.Authentic

2.Ny Traffic

3.Dr Post

Well, after he was recently suspended ( on appeal ) for not one but TWO failed post race analyses ( Congratulations !! ), let's see if Bob Baffert's Baked Beans can win the Haskell in "AUTHENTIC" fashion with the #2 here. May foal has amassed a 4:3-1-0 mark this far ( losing only to Honor A.P. ), and you can expect the track to be souped up to the conditioner's liking this afternoon. Recognize the 7-14 trainer stat which has this barn at just that w/ male graded dirt routers who hit the board 34-50 days ago & are below 2-1 today ( 3YO's ). #7 NY TRAFFIC has ascended the Beyer ladder in four straight since being transferred over to the Saffie barn ( "Another Festivus miracle !" ), and that includes three straight in the money finishes. We had #1 DR POST pegged for 2nd in the Belmont & that's where he ended up, and drops seven pounds off that effort; lone 2X try resulted in a win.

 

Saratoga         ( Current ):       3-20      ( $61.70 )  Beatable   Favorites   1-1   ( 100% )     Favorites Win %          8-20   ( 40% ) 


Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       2-12        ( $25.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     4-12     ( 33.3% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2569-12918 ($21,998.80) Beatable Favorites : 345-1244( 27.7% )Favorite's Win %: 4914-13001 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -14.8%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2664-13466 ($22,818.50)  Beatable Favorites : 360-1312( 27.4% )Favorite's Win %: 5076-13588 ( 37.4% ) +/-: -15.3%  against a 16.6% takeout


  CoxLA2017