SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/30
  
  

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A bit snakebit with three placings ( one at 26-1 ) and three showings yesterday, but to quote Billy Bob Thornton, "They all can't be winners, kid." 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 7 - #5 Polar Bear Pete


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/30

 

Race  1

1.Lookin Dynamic

2.Sugar Fix

3.Little Red Frog

#3 LOOKIN DYNAMIC hasn't been in action since getting her second win back in March, but 15% Trombetta is a nice 3-11 ( 27% ) with mid level turf stayers in the 58-248 day bracket at 24-1 or less. Johnny V. sees fit to ride.  You can;t argue with the form of #4 SUGAR FIX over the last seven months, as this one has finished first or second in nine straight ( disqualified in one ), and will face her toughest allotment yet in search of the grand slam. #7 LITTLE RED FROG has completed the exacta in both turf starts to date, and after being fanned seven wide in a nine horse field last time out, could fare better if able to get over to the rail at some point.  OFF TURF: 6-4-5-3-7

 

Race  2

1.Danegeld

2.Von Aldenbruck

3.True Palace

#2 DANEGELD ( out of 'Norwegian Summer'...ya get it ? ) has been a lively runner up in his troika of starts to date, and is paired up with his best rider to date, who coincidentally does fantastic work for 007. #4 VON ALDENBRUCK is shipped in from the Lakes off of a gamely runner up ten days in the rear ( in a race with a creative stretch call by announcer Tony Calo ) and slides in seven slots off that performance. #5 TRUE PALACE outran his odds in a big way when besting all but one down in Elmont on the 11th, and did such at a 30-1 offering. Apprentice to journeyman angle being employed here, and you may be in receipt of some value once again due to the shotcaller.  NOTE: AS OF 6:23 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  NOTE: AS OF 10:59 A.M., DUE TO A KEY LATE SCRATCH, OUR AMENDED SELECTIONS WILL BE 5-10-2.

 

Race  3

1.Vip Nation

2.Bench Dreaming

3.Foxtail

These three should suffice for all our rolling action.  #6 VIP NATION was a convincing $10 winner when last in for a quarter, and is but a nose shy of a 5:3-0-1 ledger when going from one turn to two turns. Levine Charge digs this trip ( 8:2-3-0 ), and we've made some bred at time when able to look past some ugly pre & post layoff running lines. #1 BENCH DREAMING was a lively and well clear bridesmaid in a nearly identical spot on the 3rd of July, and has hit the board in two of three turf attempts when breaking from the wood. Should be no worse than 3rd for all you show punters. #2 FOXTAIL finds herself at an all time low, and switches from Leparoux to Irad.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-2-4-6

 

Race  4 

1.Our Lady of Loreto

2.Rousey

3.Kefaliani

#2 OUR LADY OF LORETO ( the patron saint of aviation ) was flying early on in the comeback attempt last time out, but ran out of gas late and landed in second place that day. Three year old travels 200 miles northward, and Shirley you can't be serious if you don't feel this miss has a shot going from Cardenas to Santana. #5 ROUSEY showed some kick in the lane the last time she was on the sand, finishing up the exacta in this race down at Elmont; another eschewing the bug this afternoon. #4 KEFALIANI got through the maiden ranks last out, earning a career best speed fig in the process, and sometimes when the light bulb comes on, it can stay on for a while. 

 

Race  5

1.Rinaldi

2.Catch a Cab

3.Graded On a Curve

#5 RINALDI returned off a ten month hibernation to get 20% of the pot on 6/26, and as this one had been a consistent performer before disappearing, we see no reason to think that another sharp try isn't within reach. For what it;s worth, from 15% bossman has a 3-7 mark with runners of this ilk who were 1-2-3 when last facing the starter ( 10-1 or less ) w/payoffs of $14, $22 & $7. #9 CATCH A CAB bested NYB foes at odds on two fortnights ago, and although some may thing this is a step up, we actually consider it a lateral class move if not a slight drop; watch out. #8 GRADED ON A CURVE was visually impressive when winning at the NYBA1X level 53 days back, but did poorly in his only other 2nd off the shelf jammie, so we'll leave beneath. OFF TURF: 5-8-1-4(MTO)-11(MTO)

 

Race  6 

1.More Mango

2.Maliceinthepalace

3.Cherokee Song

#5 MORE MANGO most definitely appreciated the drop in class when returning off a 3+ month respite, as he closed out the tri at BEL in an honest effort. Filly ended up in a new barn afterwards that day, and as she's been kept in jail since, is smartly entered for exactly the same price. Blinks added as well as a slight upgrade in the jockey area. #9 MALICEINTHEPALACE was all riled up in the July 16th event at Delaware, but was still able to finish fourth, while losing by just a length. Recognize the fact that Carmouche had this one rolling late in the game to fail by only a whisker in their only pairing. #6 CHEROKEE SONG was extremely rank beneath a poor bug at big odds 39 days in the past, but didn't disgrace herself in losing by just a bit over five. The BSF garnered that afternoon was comparable to what she's done in the past, and we have a rare, live, Randi turf entrant at a square #.  OFF TURF: 9-10-5-7-1A   NOTE: AS OF 6:43 P.M. WEDNESDAY, WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.

 

Race  7

1.Mister Bobby

2.Polar Bear Pete

3.Dangerous Edge

#8 MISTER BOBBY was merely a honkah behind a next out winner in his sole "2nd off the pine" foray ( @ 16-1 ), and owns the all important tally over the track ( which occurred from an "outside-ish" type slot ). Slim margin. #6 POLAR BEAR PETE is switched back over to what is apparently his best surface for today's 3rd start off the layoff, and goes 2X to 1X for the first time. Eligible to surprise. #4 DANGEROUS EDGE went from 11 lengths back to getting his Polaroid snapped the only time he's had the eye cups removed, and as this one is displaying an uncharacteristic bullet since last making it over to the frontside, we think he could be sitting on a real corker.   NOTE: AS OF 6:51 P.M. WEDNESDAY WE ARE FLIP FLOPPING OUR TOP TWO SELECTIONS.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #5 MY MAN FLINTSTONE will be led over by a conditioner who's a frigid 0-18 with allowance dirt sprinters who were in the money less than seven weeks ago.

 

Race  8 

1.Barrel of Destiny

2.Out of Trouble

3.Pecatonica

#8 BARREL OF DESTINY sure is rolling right along these days, as this five year old mare goes for the grand salami today, and who are we to argue with those taking a favorable view of such? #4 OUT OF TROUBLE broke on top in the most recent, but for some reason was wrangled back to 8th by Rosario, in what turned out to be a grotesque performance at 2-1 favoritism. Castellano slated to climb back aboard today, but he took off his last two mounts on Sunday, so check the changes. #1 PECATONICA got up in time to the amount of $25 right here on opening day, but as Jose goes w/another entrant who he won for last out ( and a bigger barn ), the aforementioned Joel gets the assignment -- and he was astride for the maiden breaker on this course nearly a year ago to the day.  OFF TURF: 5-6-4-9-10

 

Race  9 

1.Bankit

2.Pat On the Back

3.Amundson

Today's featured race is named after Saratoga Legend John Morrissey, and for the most intriguing history on this famed fighter, politician, AND founder of racetrack, go right here https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Morrissey !!  #5 BANKIT is a bit of a nibbler ( 20:3-7-3 ) but has a nice amount of back class and digs the local waters. Slimmest of margins. #1 PAT ON THE BACK is a million dollar earner with a lot of scores on the ol' resume', and although this six year old "horse" ( you hang on to those dangling participles, buddy ! ) seems a touch out of form, we'll chunk beneath as he's but a noggin shy of a 4 fer 5 mark in second off the absence/one turn dirt tries. #4 AMUNDSON always seems to put forth a good showing. 

 

Race  10

1.Adios Amigos ( AE )

2.Boom Boom Kaboom

3.Disciplinarian

#14 ADIOS AMIGOS (AE) needs two to declare in order to be loaded into the starting apparatus in today's finale, but should that come to bear, would be toting along a solid grass record, and ( what we consider to be ) an advantageous draw. #3 BOOM BOOM KABOOM takes the biggest drop in the biz today, and Weaver is a dreamy 5 for 9 when doing that to his turf sprinters off breaks of seven weeks or less ( positive R.O.I. ). #7 DISCIPLINARIAN posted an adj, 73.3 ( vs. tougher competition ) in his only "2nd off the layoff" go round, and secures Irad for the Spa debut.  OFF TURF: 7-2-13(AE)-14(AE)-15(AE) 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     17-103     ( $190.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   3-4  ( 75.0% )   Favorites Win %       39-103 ( 37.9% )( As of Thursday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       3-22        ( $35.60 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     8-22     ( 36.4% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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