SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 7/31
  
  

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Just about a breakeven three bagger for us here yesterday & a successful Beatable Favorite as well. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 3 - #3 Prairie Wings  Race 5 - #13 Dream Chasing ( AE )/#4 Silent Empress  Race 8 - #9 Jewel of Arabia  Race 10 - #3 Lido Key


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 7/31

 

Race  1

1.Pazzion

2.Stylish Rags 

3.Dash to the Top

#6 PAZZION has a couple of decent works for today's initial foray, and this one is a full to Dreams are Pazible, who went 4 for 16 in dirt dashes, banking 112K. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #2 STYLISH RAGS is showing a 2nd best of 31 breeze down at Keeneland for the overture, and first foal out of this partcular dam is by a sire who was a poyfect three for three going one turn. #4 DASH TO THE TOP has a couple'a nice morning moves on the docket and totes along a healthy 390 Tomlinson for the distance. 

 

Race  2

1.Missle Bomb

2.Business Cycle

3.Brush Country

#2 MISSLE BOMB is a game gelding who sure does love cashing checks, ( as attested by the 33:10-7-7 ledger ), and is reunited with Saez today, under whose guidance he's gone 3:2-1-0. Seven year old has also completed the triple in his lone start off the bench, and has partaken in that same wager in 11 of 14 lifetime. #4 BUSINESS CYCLE was fanned six wide in an eight horse allotment most recently, but came along nicely to get 3rd place money against tougher. Historically, this one is about 10% better on a fast track then a wet one, so you can feel free to adjust the last Beyer accordingly. #6 BRUSH COUNTRY hasn't been seen since the December purchase, but is 3:1-1-0 on this course, and secured 11% of the bread in his lone trip off a layoff. 

 

Race  3

1.Sengekontacket 

2.Sursom Corda

3.Champagne Diet

#8 SENGEKONTACKET ( a spot in Martha's Vineyard http://www.sengekontacket.org/ ) just missed versus slightly weaker down in Elmont a bit less than three weeks ago, and three returnees ( including the two that sandwiched her ) came back to amass a 3:2-0-0-1 mark, with an average speed figure of 10.3 pts. From a DRF Formulator standpoint, Cox ( dig it ) is 7 of 16 with maiden special weight female 2nd time routers who crashed the party 13-67 days back, and has a positive ROI in that regards. #6 SURSOM CORDA has been a part of the superfecta in four of five career trips to the track, and Wilkes is a lively 10 fer 24 with turf stock at this level ( off of this kind of L/O ) who were ITM last out & are 9-1 or undah ( $4.38 Return on investment ). #5 CHAMPAGNE DIET rounds out the top three ( which essentially means I have nothing to clever say here ).  OFF TURF: 1-3-2(MTO)-6-8  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 PRAIRIE WINGS

 

Race  4 

1.Liza Star

2.What a Fox

3.Pacific Gale 

#4 LIZA STAR most definitely has a nose for the line, as this chestnut mare has just about doubled her places & shows in the win department, and 17% shotcaller is a snappy 6-10 w/optional dirt dashers who tallied a victory 20-50 days back ( $6, $4 x 3, $5 & $26 ). #1 WHAT A FOX has a nice "declining" mark that we always love to see ( 11:4-2-1 at the trip ) and has won two of her last three when available for purchase. #5 PACIFIC GALE is up for sale for the 1st time and has a "For Sale" sticker attached to her rump for the first time; may grab a slice. 

 

Race  5

1.Imincomunicado

2.Sandra's Mine 

3.Devils Rendezvous

#12 IMINCOMUNICADO has a couple of ugly running lines staring you right in the face, but in all fairness, they were on the dirt and against substantially tougher ( were at least she flashed some early hoof ). The sole turf attempt ( nearly a year ago to the day right here ) produced an adj. fig. of 60.1, and that came without eye cups and the wonder drug, which are now a part of the package. #2 SANDRA'S MINE is another one having the hood affixed this afternoon, and while she has the best collection of BSF's in the lot, there's just something about her keeping us from placing her on the top shelf. #8 DEVILS RENDEZVOUS flattened out a bit late in the game last time out, but TBH, that was her first try off a ten month hibernation, and may move up off that effort.   OFF TURF: 4-6-5-11-16(MTO)  BEATABLE FAVORITE: Neither #13 DREAM CHASING (AE) or #4 SILENT EMPRESS make our first draft, so why would we accept 3-1/7-2 ?

 

Race  6 

1.Empire Line

2.Cavaradossi

3.Cobble Hill 

#1 EMPIRE LINE steps up a bit for today's first start off a "true" layoff today, but hung up an adjusted 85.5 when last facing the starter, and slides all the way into the pine for today's comebacker. Weaver's tightened this one up w/ two crisp works since last trekking over to the frontside, and Weaver is a poyfect four of four with NYRA based mid level dirt stock off breaks of 51-63 days ( $3, $4 x 2 & $7 ). #5 CAVARADOSSI is backed by a small trainer statistic which has Papa Englehart at 6:3-1-1-1 when going green to brown with local runners of this caliber ( 37 days or less ), and the mutuels for that sampling came back $9, $6 & $15. #2 COBBLE HILL takes a mandatory ( and smart ) hike up in class after destroying 16G foes at Big Sandy on 7 come 11, and Rudy Rod is 3 for 8 when giving his freshly purchased mid level dirt runners that type of hike ( < 40 days ), with payouts of $6, $7 & $8. 

 

Race  7

1.Pepper Pike 

2.Bad Beat Brian 

3.Blanket of Roses

#2 PEPPER PIKE goes from one turn to two today, and went coast to coast like buttah and toast the only other time that was attempted in the Hoosier state. Humdrum choice in a race that's difficult to hug, if able to get back to the initial turf attempt. #3 BAD BEAT BRIAN has gone 73-79-77 in his last troika turf go rounds, so obviously, the talent is there. Pilot from the last score is back in the saddle, and this one is a threat to go wire to wire. #4 BLANKET OF ROSES got the job done in his only "second off the L/O" jammie, and when you factor in that it was at a level substantially higher than the the preceding start, that makes the slight uptick in the Beyer department all the more impressive. Eighth different jock in nine starts is a goodie in Jose, and recognize that this colt has won both of his trips when available for the taking.  OFF TURF: 8-2-7-11(MTO)-10

 

Race  8 

1.Fair Lassie

2.Flashpackinbarbie

3.Classy Sadie

#4 FAIR LASSIE didn't display much in the first off the bench deal, but Saez sees fit to ride, and Grossman ( from an itty bitty sampling ) is 2 for 6 with dirt stock who finished off the board less than 40 days ago & are below the 31-1 watermark ( $6 & $7 ). #8 FLASHPACKINBARBIE is a lightly raced four year old who's won two of three, but as the lone blemish came at The Spa, we'll leave underneath. #10 CLASSY SADIE as band as any for the show dough.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #9 JEWEL OF ARABIA will be brought over by a trainer who's 0-7 in all relevant categories.

 

Race  9 

1.Artie's Princess

2.Fly So Pretty

3.Shippy

#8 ARTIE'S PRINCESS is but a neck shy of an unblemished record, and although the snazzy running lines have come over the carpet fibers, quite often that'll translate to the turf nicely. When it comes his ungraded turf sprinters in the 49-61 day zip code ( underneath 10-1 ), W.W. has won 4 of 10 times, and obviously this J/T combo add to the allure. #3 FLY SO PRETTY finished in front of all others in her only turf outing off a break in the action, and Casse is in possession of a 3 for 7 boxscore with runners fitting these parameters ( 68-84 days ), and the winning prices for that sampling were $13, $11 & $23. #5 SHIPPY lost by just a sliver in her only race day turf engagement, and the pedigree tells us that there is ample room for improvement.  OFF TURF: 1-2-5-8-4 

 

Race  10

1.Princess Fawzia

2.Leeway

3.Sterling Beauty

#9 PRINCESS FAWZIA stepped into the land of winners for the first time 48 days in the rear, and nearly lit up the tote board at 14-1 when losing by just a noggin' ( and improving her # in the process -- never easy to do ). When it comes to her second off the sabbatical allowance turf stayers at 8-1 or lower ( ITM last out ), Rice is a more than nice 5 for 10 ( $12, $10, $13, $15 & $4 ). There's a sub category of 3-4 right here, and you're gonna have to grab this one by the tail to get the glory. #5 LEEWAY hasn't been in action since procuring the sheepskin back in the fall, but C-Squared knows how to have 'em prepped for the comebackers, and pre-layoff pilot returns ( which we always like to see ). #10 STERLING BEAUTY immolated a bunch of baccala in the comebacker, but finished third in her only D to T race and we'll chunk in the mix.  OFF TURF: 8-1-7-5-3  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #3 LIDO KEY is backed by a 1 fer 18 trainer stat in applicable areas.


Saratoga         ( Current ):     20-113     ( $209.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   3-5  ( 60.0% )   Favorites Win %       44-113 ( 38.9% )( As of Friday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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