SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/2


Just a chalky three bagger and a $36 cold double for us here yesterday. 

Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None

I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/2


Race  1

1.Delaware Destiny

2.Mrs Frankel ( Ire ) 

3.Simply Ravishing

Employing the "Diamond in the Rough" theory with the #7 DELAWARE DESTINY here, as there's a nicely hidden bullet gate breeze ( 36 & 3 ) amidst a bevy of ordinary morning moves for today's bow. C-Squared is positively unconscious this summer, and Irad sees fit to ride this January foal out of a dam who was 4 for 8 on turf & poly, banking about 150 large. #3 MRS FRANKEL (IRE) didn't show a heck of a lot when starting things out at Belmont back in June, but is bred to go longer and Jose sticks around. #6 SIMPLY RAVISHING is another with a decent gate workout for today's initial foray and can land a share.  OFF TURF: 6-1(MTO)-2-3-4


Race  2


2.Curlin Grey 


#2 MILLS sure is an old warhorse, ain't he? Ten year old gelding will be loaded into the gate for the 72nd time today, and he's still winning races at a nice clip. Gelding has hit the board in 4 of 5 right here, 7 of 8 at the trip, and rates a slight edge. #5 CURLIN GREY was in the rear with the gear last time out down at CD, but two of four returnees from that day got the job done last time out, and this one could fare better with some pace to cut into. #7 WALKOFF was a gamely and well clear runner up versus tougher at BEL last out and makes his third start off the layoff today. Logical. 


Race  3

1.Tide of the Sea

2.Shore Magic

3.Mr. Alec

#1A TIDE OF THE SEA is a lightly raced four year old who has partaken in the exacta in four straight, and 18% outfit is a crisp 3-7 w/second off the shelf allowance turf stayers who were in the money more than 37 days ago & are 12-1 or undah. #2 SHORE MAGIC hasn't seen the scene since the end of January, but Clement charge has put together a decent resume' thus far and may sit a perfect trip. #5 MR. ALEC has yet to finish out of the money, and while having a legit shot, appears to be a bit of a money burner, so we'll slide beneath.  OFF TURF: 4-2-5-1A-1


Race  4 

1.Long Island City

2.Bank Gala

3.Prince Halo

#3 LONG ISLAND CITY fought in between a couple of competitors when having blinks added last time out, and gave up the ghost rather readily after a half. Grey guy is switched back over to the sand today ( on which he finished 3rd in his only try ), and from the ittiest, bittiest sampling, Levine is 2-2 with those making this surface transition with his locally based maiden claimers ridden by Carmouche ( < 24-1 & less than 58 days ). #8 BANK GALA has finished in the back half of the field in both starts since returning off a break in the action, and is smartly dropped in for a quarter today by Ferraro. Speaking of said shotcaller, he's quietly having a decent meet, as his runners have hit the board in 4 of 7 ( 27-1, 17-1, 12-1 & 6-1 ). #4 PRINCE HALO lost by a bit over two at 54-1 in the lone 2X to 1X spin and finds himself at an all time low. 


Race  5

1.Coral Legacy

2.War Film


We're not quite sure why the #3 CORAL LEGACY is 30-1 on the morning line, as the adjusted Beyer speed figure of 73.6 from the July 12th event ( a 4th at 90-1 ) would give him a puncher's chance vs. these. Interesting to see the blinkers come off for a barn who has never removed them off a horse for the first time. #5 WAR FILM was an even 4th in a nearly identical spot at Elmont two dozen days back and while there's nothing in particular that has this one as a standout, he seems like the type that can grab a piece, fer sure. #4 MEGACITY closed out the triple in his only "3rd off the bench" engagement, and that's cause enough to spot him in that spot once again. OFF TURF: 2-7-4-3-1(MTO)


Race  6 

1.Miss Morgantown

2.Spun d'Etat

3.Lady Lilly

#3 MISS MORGANTOWN begins her professional career today, and does such with two crisp workouts on the ledger for Handal ( one of them a best of 29 half in 48 flat ). $12,500 bred animal went for more than eight times that much at auction, and brings along a healthy 391 Tomlinson for the trip. Sire was 4 for 6 in one turn deals ( earning more than half'a mil in the process ), and this one may surprise at a price. #2 SPUN D'ETAT ran evenly to get the show bread in the Keeneland overture 25 days in the rear, and Amoss IS a jazzy 8 fer 18 with second time dirt sprinters at the mdspwt. level at 7-1 or beneath ( < seven weeks ). #6 LADY LILLY is displaying a bullet from this gate on July 22nd, and this Nyquist runner out of a Pulpit mare could be any kind. 


Race  7

1.Kitten's Cat 

2.Banana Thief

3.Dowse's Beach

#8 KITTEN'S CAT is wheeled right back in four days, and the only time Linda Rice has done such with a turf runner who missed the board most recently, she won ( $5 ). Recognize that Jose sticks around despite the recent disappointment as this one is now dropped below the price claimed from two back. #4 BANANA THIEF has partaken in the triple in all four of his "second off the shelf" outings, and has fared decently here. #2 DOWSE'S BEACH appears to be missing something since leaving the barn of indicted Jason Servis, but has won six of ten on the Mellon turf course and we'll give him another shot.  OFF TURF: 5-9-7(MTO)-3-4


Race  8 

1.Fort Worth 


3.Wushu Warrior

#11 FORT WORTH hasn't faced the starter in a couple of Easter Sunday's, but Pletcher doesn't send over any sore animals, and he also has a 5:3-1-0-1 mark with Saratoga based allowance dirt stock who got the diploma 51+ days back ( $5 & $7 x 2 ). #3 RIKEN got his photograph taken the only time he was in a "3rd off the L/O" spot on a glib surface and has an excellent chance to complete the grand slam in this spot. #5 WUSHU WARRIOR gas been a part of the exacta in more than half of his starts at the trip, and it's always good to see a pre-layoff pilot return. By no means hopeless at 12-1. 


Race  9 

1.You're to Blame

2.Standard Deviation


Featured race of the day is a mile and three quarters marathon, and we'll give a tepid nod to #2 YOU'RE TO BLAME. Six year old "horse" ( You hide when you see them snippers, buddy boy ! ) has a nice overall body of work, ( especially at these marathon distances ), and The Toddster is a tight 3 fer 4 with ungraded dirt stayers in the even tighter 51-53 day bracket ( 12-1 or lower ), with payoffs of $6, $11 & $3.  Four year old #1 STANDARD DEVIATION won his only try at The Spa, owns a fair amount of back class, and from the most minuscule of surveys, 16% clan has won with both of their ungraded dirt starters who missed the $ less than a month back & are 16-1 or under ( $17 & $7 ). #4 ROCKETRY was an honest runner up in his lone "second off the respite" try on the dirt, and finished third in his only visit to the Adirondacks.   NOTE: AS OF 11:14, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.


Race  10



3.Striking Speed 

"How do you measure yourself against other golfers?" "By HEIGHT." And with that Caddyshack quote said and done, we'll go with the #9 in today's finale, based on the legit placing behind a next out winner on the 5th of July, and an eligibility for improvement in today's 3rd start off the hibernation. #2 TACTICIAN is confidently hiked up in the first start off the May claim ( despite faring poorly that day ) and is reacquainted with eye cups here. #1 STRIKING SPEED drops for the second straight time in today's turf to dirt tango.  

Saratoga         ( Current ):     24-135     ( $238.30 ) Beatable   Favorites   4-9  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %       49-135 ( 36.3% )( As of Sunday morning )

Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )

All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  

Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout

Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout