SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/6
  
  

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Just a chalky 9:2-2-2 day for us here yesterday. 


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Note


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/6

 

Race  1

1.Macho Jack

2.Cause I Said So

3.Boss Life

#4 MACHO JACK hasn't been in action since the end of October, but was doing some decent work last year, finds himself at his lowest level to date, and is showing a couple of crisp works for today's comebacker. Ain't facing much. #6 CAUSE I SAID SO popped and stopped when returning from a 3 1/2 month hiatus, but is another who has never seen these depths, and sizzling Rosario gets legged up for the first time. May improve with the last under his girthstrap. #8 BOSS LIFE lost by just a length and a quarter down at Keeneland in the initial one turn try over a fast track, and draws well while getting a ( albeit cold ) good "send" rider in Carmouche. 

 

Race  2

1.Wicked Amber

2.Jades Gelly

3.Bourbon 'n Ditch

#5 WICKED AMBER encountered a good amount of trouble in the most recent, but still split the field that afternoon at boxcar odds, and earned a nice speed figure in the process. Persaud ( who normally wins 1 out of every 20 ) is an honest 2 for 7 with turf dashers who missed the board less than 26 days ago & are 30-1 or less today ( $7 & $19 ). This is the kind of race he can win. #6 JADES GELLY was a sharp third in a nearly identical spot on the 3rd of July, and makes all kinds of sense once again. #1 BOURBON 'N DITCH was in the rear with the gear when returning off a one and a half calendar hibernation, but has a couple of okay running lines in turf sprints and may spice things up a bit.  OFF TURF: 3(MTO)-2-6-7-5

 

Race  3

1.I Saw It All

2.Our American Star

3.No More Miracles

#6 I SAW IT ALL was given a grotesque ride by Cancel in the most recent, and although Cardenas hasn't done much to set the world ablaze, at least there's some reduction in the weight department this afternoon. May surprise in the first "3rd off the L/O" try for a trainer whose runners have outrun their odds ( for the most part ) this meet. #5 OUR AMERICAN STAR has a grisly 44:1-8-3 lifetime mark, but the last one at the Shore was honest enough, and six year old may plod along for a share. #1 NO MORE MIRACLES as good as any for the show dough. 

 

Race  4 

1.Dr. Shane

2.Catch a Cab

3.Honorable Hero 

These three and no more for all our rolling action.   #1 DR. SHANE is one for two at the trip, one for two in second off the layoff tries ( on the sod ), and won his only start when breaking from the pine on the gramma. May sit a nice pocket trip in for an all time low here. #2 CATCH A CAB ( who should be no worse than 3rd here, for those looking to grind out a few fazools ) is 3:1-0-2 when entered at this exact level, and brings along an adjusted speed figure of 80.4 from the start a week ago; logical. #3 HONORABLE HERO had no palpable excuse for the flopola seven days back, but hung up a fair figaro just before that ( despite an extremely wide journey ), and may rebound at a square #.  OFF TURF: 13(MTO)-1-7-4-6  NOTE: AS OF 11:43, DUE TO TWO LATE SCRATCHES, #'S 5 & 10 WILL BE OUR 2ND & 3RD CHOICES RESPECTIVELY.

 

Race  5

1.Bustin Bay

2.Herald Angel

3.Guardian Moon

Extremely difficult race to decipher here, and we'll give a tepid nod to #5 BUSTIN BAY. Offspring of Bustin Stones ( who is turning out to do some really good work as a sire ) hasn't been showing a whole heck of a lot in the A.M.'s for today's initial foray, but maternal grandsire was 3:1-0-1 in turf dashes, and January foal has a maturity edge over the rest. #4 HERALD ANGEL ( who was purchased for 50 large right across the street last year ) has been increasing the length of his workouts for today's bow, so we know there's some bottom here, and Irad hops on. Abreu tightened up the screws on firster #6 GUARDIAN MOON with a 35 & 2 work on Saturday, and as there was recently a DRF article discussing how Declaration of War has been producing solid turf runners -- as well as dirt -- we'd be remiss in excluding.  OFF TURF: 9(MTO)-1A-5-1-7

 

Race  6 

1.Intoxicologist

2.Wicked Title

3.Lake Chicot

#5 INTOXICOLOGIST was an even third at this level down at Big Sandy on the 12th of July, and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman for today's 3rd off the layoff deal. Charlie's been quiet thus far at the stand, but don't fall asleep on him. #4 WICKED TITLE was kept in jail after being claimed for a quarter five weeks ago, so is now eligible to be entered for $9,000 less by Rice. That being said, this one would need a WIN just for Drawing Away to show a $1,500-$2,000 profit on the ledger ( should she be claimed ). Expecting this one to be on point. #1 LAKE CHICOT ( a lake in Arkansas ) is dropped for the 3rd straight time and needs to reverse some pretty poor form. 

 

Race  7

1.Hungry Kitten

2.Mighty Scarlett

3.Tizahra

We have two nearly identical DRF Formulator stats in play for today's seventh race, so let's get directly to 'em... #4 HUNGRY KITTEN comes in today off a career best performance two fortnights back in Elmont, and Shug is a snappy 14:5-3-2-2 with NYRA based optional turf routers who scored 1-55 days ago & are 8-1 or less. #8 MIGHTY SCARLETT always gives a good account of herself and 12% clan is 14-5-5-2 w/fillies that are three years old & upwards who hit the board less than 52 days back & are 15-1 or undah ( $2.74 return on investment ). The reason we selected 'Kitten is because there's a sub category of 2-2 on this course. #2 TIZAHRA has partaken in the superfecta in six straight, and that includes a sharp showing in the lone "3rd off the respite" attempt.  OFF TURF: 8-4-5-6-7

 

Race  8 

1.Jolting Joe

2.Turbo Drive

3.Stuy Town Baby

#6 JOLTING JOE is likely named after the Hall of Fame Yankee center fielder, so we've included the song named after him right here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BvOIEwvhG5g !!  Okay, back to business...While this one is in fact a maiden facing winners, we like how the BSF's have gone up, up, up, and Maker has a nice 3 for 6 record with ungraded turf gals who crashed the fiesta less than a month ago & are 13-1 or less ( 2nd off the bench ). #4 TURBO DRIVE cane from out of the clouds to get up in time right here a dozen days back, and without any guarantee of a torrid speed duel, we'll leave beneath. #2 STUY TOWN BABY is a bit light from a speed figure P.O.V., but sheds seven pounds off a score ( which we always dig ) and may be going over firm ground for the first time today.  OFF TURF: 6-1-5-4-3

 

Race  9 

1.Revenio

2.Tikhvin Flew 

3.Elusive Ruler

#1 REVENIO showed zilch in the lone turf try, but that was a while ago, and being we always give an animal two starts under a particular set of circumstances, we'll lean on the solid top side pedigree to give this one a shot -- but demand value. #9 TIKHVIN FLEW has faced some salty critters back in the day, and is another who deserves a secondary opportunity on the gramma. #5 ELUSIVE RULER has sure been a different equine since transitioning from brown to green, but homebred owned by the estate of Marylou Whitney is up for sale now, and we wouldn't be surprised to see this three year old get snagged for 40 large.  OFF TURF: 10-11(MTO)-5-9-1 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     27-154     ( $253.40 ) Beatable   Favorites   4-9  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %       59-151 ( 38.2% )( As of Thursday morning ) 


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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