SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/7
  
  

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Decent day for us here yesterday with a profitable three bagger, two ice cold exactas of $13 & $19, a cold double of $29, and two rolling pick threes of $1,038 & $437.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/7

 

Race  1

1.Spiritual King

2.Kickitat

3.Selfmande

#6 SPIRITUAL KING showed zilch in the comebacker, but posted a couple of couple of decent turf numbers just before that and is back in for a tag today. Slim margin. #1 KLICKITAT nearly went all the way when making his first 2020 start down at Elmont on the 12th, but got nabbed on the line in a nearly identical spot. Race goes through him. #8 SELFMADE was a gamely and decently clear runner up when going long and on the lawn for the first time and is logical once again.  OFF TURF: 7-4-5-8-6

 

Race  2

1.Cobra Kai 

2.Bohemian Ruby

3.Cotton

#1 COBRA KAI ( "Sweep the leg!" ) begins his working life in the second half of today's early daily double, and this $5,000 bred animal ( who went for 10X that amount across the street last year ) is well bred for this trip -- as the 380 Tomlinson figure belies. 'Miah has a 3 for 6 mark with those fitting all this exact criteria ( any jock ) with mutuels of $10 x 2 & $16 & is 1 for 1 with today's pilot. It's two days short of a year since Barclay had a NYB, March foaled male debut in a maiden special weight sprint ( Hmmmm...what was that horse's name again? ), and he and he has another won here with #2 BOHEMIAN RUBY. This one hasn't shown much in the morning, but we're assuaged by the fact that the aforementioned shotcaller is two for three with FTS'ers within all today's parameters ( any rider ), w/ both paying nine clams. Many were picking COTTON when the #6 debuted down at Elmont on the 12th of July, as the 2-1 shot finished second that day, and the bloodlines tell us that the result was likely not an aberration. 

 

Race  3

1.Sun Summers

2.Music of Life

3.Seeking Revenge

#6 SUN SUMMERS got the job done at the level just below this one 41 days in the rear, and ended up in a new barn afterwards for all his efforts. The good news is that Maker's on the Mark with first off the claim mid level turf stayers who scored 17-67 days ago, as he's 5:2-3-0 in that regards; always good when the pre-claim pilot returns. #2 MUSIC OF LIFE has been a part of the superfecta in all three starts off the bench, and Gargan is a tight 3-7 with mid level turf routers in the 68-96 day zip code at 15-1 or less ( $8 & $4 x 2 ). #7 SEEKING REVENGE has won the last two times she's been available for purchase and has done well at the trip.  OFF TURF: 9-10(MTO)-5-4-1  NOTE: AS OF 11:32, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #8 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  4 

1.Baseline Drive

2.Hot Button

3.Mischief Reigns

#7 BASELINE DRIVE was a bit tardy to the party & immolated some baccala down at Hallandale Beach on 6/24, but two of three returnees from that day got their photos taken next time out, with a negligible Beyer change amongst the triad. According to DRF Formulator, Chad Brown ( who's on a 2 fer 33 streak of late ) is three of three with second time starters under these conditions ( 3YO fillies ) who were off the board 21-67 days back & ridden by Javier ( $7 & $4 x 2 ). #6 HOT BUTTON has a couple of nice moves on the docket for today's initial foray and is well bred for this sorta deal. #3 MISCHIEF REIGNS is another with green coursing through her veins, but went for 1/4th of the stud fee at auction, so take a gander during the warmups if at all possible.  OFF TURF: 5-3-1-7-6

 

Race  5

1.Kept True

2.Jennemily

3.Vast

#4 KEPT TRUE hasn't faced the starter in nearly five months, but owns a win & a placing off a break in the action, is one for two right here, 2:1-1-0 @ this distance of ground, and has a 4:2-1-1 mark with today's pilot. Slightest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #6 JENNEMILY has won three of four ( with the lone blemish being directly in front of a layoff line ) and seems to dig the waters up here. As this one has more than earned back the 35K purchase price from five starts ago, The As-Man puts the four year old in for a $62,500 tag this afternoon so the connections can cash out nicely. #5 VAST has a touch of back class & completed the exacta in her lone "2nd off the L/O" try. 

 

Race  6 

1.Mad Maddy

2.Royal Approval 

3.Leia Marie

These three and no more for all our rolling action.  #7 MAD MADDY has been a jealous bridesmaid in her three starts to date, but it's not for a lack of effort as this one has shown some mettle each & every time ( including a recent heat vs. the lads ). No worse than 3rd for all you show punters out there. #5 ROYAL APPROVAL had a wasted trip to Royal Ascot, as Ward gal got trounced over there, finishing 17th of 18 over there, and is obviously in a more palatable spot today. #4 LEIA MARIE has been working lights out for today's first call to the post, and runner who was bred for just 20G went for 20X that amount just a stone's throw from here, so is obviously well meant.  OFF TURF: 3-6(MTO)-7-2-4  NOTE: AS OF 11:33, DUE TO A LATE SCRATCH THE #3 WILL BE OUR 3RD SELECTION.

 

Race  7

1.Archumybaby

2.Mo Flash

3.Excess Capacity

#3 ARCHUMYBABY has finished first and third in her two starts since being transferred over to Orlando Noda, has a 3:1-1-1 record over this oval, and really digs this trip, as the 5:3-2-0 mark belies. Oh yeah -- toss in a 5:3-1-1 boxscore with Looie in the stirrups. Mild choice in a tight affair. #7 MO FLASH makes her third start off the respite today, and got the job done both times she's done such -- on the dirt. That's reason enough to chunk in. #6 EXCESS CAPACITY is back in for the price claimed from two back, and goes from Reylu to Irad, which is the equivalent of getting Lasix for the first time. 

 

Race  8 

1.Tatterazzi

2.Silky Blue

3.Giacosa

#2 TATTERAZZI hasn't been in action since early April, but that's okay, as Terranova is a terror with those who have won, going long on the lawn off hibernations of 77-177 days ( 3YO's & upwards ), as he's a poyfect 5 for 5 in that area ( $6, $8, $24, $7 & $28 ). Play of the day. #1 SILKY BLUE was all out to get up by a honkah when procuring the sheepskin to the tune of $40 two hundred miles southward last out, and draws snugly for today's initial stretchout; you may get some value here once again. #2 GIACOSA has gone 38-58-61-71 in her quartet of outings thus far, so who quite knows where her ceiling is?  OFF TURF: 5-7-6(MTO)-8-9

 

Race  9 

1.Garoppolo

2.Momos

3.Papetu

Today's featured race is the Saratoga Special, and for some history on this event  -- won the most times by ol' "Banana Nose", Eddie Arcaro -- please go to this link https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saratoga_Special_Stakes .  #3 GARAPPOLO scored in smart fashion on the 3rd of July to get his first win, and Breen gets the green with maiden breaking dirt sprinters at 15-1 or beneath, as he's a sensational 10 for 19 with that kind ( $3 x 2, $8 x 2, $13, $10, $18, $5, $6 & $7 ). Saez aboard back to back runners with solid trainer stats. #7 MOMOS went coast to coast like butter and toast right outta the box on opening weekend here for C-Squared, and the 415 Tommy says to us that there's ample room for improvement. #1 PAPETU showed improvement in the BSF dept. when facing winners for the first time ( a tally ) and that's never easy to do. Johnny V, gets the call for a barn he's had some success with. 

 

Race  10

1.Tilsa

2.Tesorina

3.Yellen

We close out the day with a couple'a solid Formulator stats, so let's get to 'em directly... #2 TILSA: Thomas a jazzy 6 for 9 with mdclm. routers on the sod who missed getting some bread 27-64 days back, and the mutuels for that sampling were $7 x 3, $16 & $4 x 2. #4 TESORINA: W.W. is a sharp 3-4 when giving his turf sprinters the biggest drop in the game ( 98 days or more ) and taking the hood off for the first time ( $4, $5 & $8 ). #6 YELLEN is a $60,000 auction purchase who has earned back about $40,000 thus far, but when you factor in about $42,000 in trainer, vet & blacksmith fees, the connections are down about $62,000, hence the tag last time out & today. A win & a claim would result in just about a 2K loss overall, so you can assume all systems will be "go" for this 2nd part of the uncoupled entry with our secondary selection.  OFF TURF: 2-11(MTO)-7-6-3 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     30-163     ( $274.90 ) Beatable   Favorites   4-9  ( 44.4% )   Favorites Win %       64-164 ( 39.3% )( As of Friday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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