SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/12 - Steeplechase Day
  
  

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One was the loneliest number for us her on Sunday as we're at the halfway point of the meet a bit above the takeout margin.  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): Race 2 - Tiz He the One  Race 10 - #6 Deeply Analytical


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/12 - Steeplechase Day

 

Race  1

1.Brianbakescookies

2.Markhan

3.Court Ruler ( Ire )

After being claimed for $16,000 two years ago, seven year old #5 BRIANBAKESCOOKIES has found a new lease on his racing life going over the jumps, amassing a 6:1-3-1 mark since then, banking more than 46 large for Jack Fisher, who's won every jump race at the stand. Aforementioned shotcaller has a tight 3 for 6 mark with jumpers who hit the board 53-67 days back & are 18-1 or less. #1 MARKHAN had been doing steady work until the mishap right here last annum, and then, the follow up engagement, but we'll give him one more chance on the comebacker. #2 COURT RULER (IRE) got a late start to his working life ( 5 1/2 years old ) but seems to dig what he's doing, as attested by the 2:1-1-0 ledger. 17% Leslie clicks at a 3-12 ( 25% ) rate with all her jumpers in the 25-67 day bracket, and this one sheds 96 ounces off just a length defeat. 

 

Race  2

1.Dinar

2.Strike That

3.Releasethethunder

#2 DINAR has been alternation losses and wins over his last quintet, so today should be a tally, right? If only the game were that simple. Colt cuts back to one turn for today's 3rd off the L/O attempt, and favorite pilot sticks around despite the recent disappointment. Slimmest of margins in a race with no first draft eliminations. #5 STRIKE THAT won his lone try off an absence, was a game runner up right here 19 days back, and has yet to miss an exacta; logical inclusion. #3 RELEASETHETHUNDER bested weaker on this course on 7/19 and can land a share.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #1 TIZ HE THE ONE will be led over by a trainer who's 0-8 with optional dirt stock who were claimed 28-50 days back ( ITM ).

 

Race  3

1.Fluent in Sarcasm

2.Money in the Bank

3.Daring Disguise

#2 FLUENT IN SARCASM was right on some insane splits in this race last time out, and gave up the ghost late in the game, losing by a bit over two. With a dearth of speed signed on, Irad appears to have made the correct decision in sticking around, and a wire job is well within this one's grasp. #7 MONEY IN THE BANK was a gamely & decently clear runner up in a near identical spot down at Elmont a couple'a months back, and trainer keeps it in the family today, giving his brother the riding assignment. #4 DARING DISGUISE was extremely sharp in his placing on the fifth of July, and makes his third start off the absence this afternoon.  OFF TURF: 4-3-7-6-8(MTO)

 

Race  4 

1.Radiantrithym

2.Friend of Liberty

3.Dirty Bird

#7 RADIANTRITHYM sure is a well traveled sort, getting loaded into her 15th different starting gate today, but hard knocking gal always seems to give a good account of herself, and lays over just about the entire field from a speed figure perspective. Oddly enough, this mare has only been in a 3rd off the layoff situation just one time in 58 starts -- but it resulted in a win, and it came from an outside post -- from where she's two fer three. #3 FRIEND OF LIBERTY ( uncoupled entrymate with the above ) is 4:1-0-0-1 in second off the shelf scenarios, 2:-0-2-0-0 locally ( with none of those races overlapping ) and will be the only other entrant we'll utilize as a saver. #4 DIRTY BIRD outran her odds when showing at this level 19 days in the rear, and filly was a solid 2nd in her only "3rd off the break" engagement. Don't sleep on Jimmy Ferarro, who's hit the board in six straight with those at 27-1 or less ( 13-1, 3-1, 27-1, 17-1, 12-1 & 6-1 ) & is on a run of 15:2-5-4-2 with that type, as well.

 

Race  5

1.Gunman

2.Scanno

3.Digital Software

#7 GUNMAN hasn't been seen since Hector was a pup, but the sprinting debut way back when was honest enough, and being a War Front out of a Street Sense mare, should appreciate today's added ground, as Todd puts this homebred up for sale for the first time. #4 SCANNO has been a part of the superfecta in seven straight, and while this one is honest enough to include, there's nothing superlative to be said about her to get her on the topside. #3 DIGITAL SOFTWARE immolated some baccala down at Lexingtion, and while the speed figures this one has posted are solid enough, we'll relegate to the unders as Chad Brown is on a curious 4-45 run of late.  OFF TURF: 4-7-6-1A-2

 

Race  6 

1.Single Verse

2.Fight On Lucy

3.Bustin Scones

#3 SINGLE VERSE has shown very little in his last troika, but we're assuaged by the fact that Atras has a 6 for 13 record with 3rd off the layoff dirt dashers who missed the money last out at 14-1 or lower. Lone try st this strip yielded a placing in which she put up an adjusted 73.5 speed figure ( without Lasix ). #4 FIGHT ON LUCY has done her best work at this dist., and while cutting from two turns to one today, we'll leave underneath, as Reylu is on a gruesome 1 for 80 something streak. #5 BUSTIN SCONES has fared decently since returning off the respite and is as good as any for the show scone. 

 

Race  7

1.Microsecond

2.Scuttlebuzz

3.Sandro the Great

#11 MICROSECOND was a daylight clear runner up at this level 200 miles southward 41 days in the rear, and as this one has yet to miss the board, we'll afford him a tepid nod for today's initial turf engagement. #7 SCUTTLEBUZZ had a tough trip in the local dirt debut, and if you can see your way clear of that, the prior try produced an adj. Beyer of 69.9 under these conditions, and is an obvious factor if able to get back to that effort. #12 SANDRO THE GREAT posted an adjusted 69.4 when going over the gramma for the first time two back, and white hot barn gets him back on the stuff once again.  OFF TURF: 2-11-4-1-14(MTO)

 

Race  8 

1.Liveyourbeastlife

2.Hunt the Front

3.Lil Commissioner

#3 LIVEYOURBEASTLIFE has steadily improved over his last troika of outings, culminating with a lifetime best # at Big Sandy on 7/2, and sheds two pounds off that score for today's 3rd start off the L/O. Just may dig the reunion with Manny Man, who was astride for the first out score 11 months ago. #6 HUNT THE FRONT often leaves himself with an awful lot to do, but lands in a softer spot today and should be rolling late as usual. #4 LIL COMMISSIONER has won two straight, four of six, is a nose shy of a two fer two mark when going 1X to 2X, and got his picture taken in his lone "2nd off the shelf" jammie. Watch out, suckahs !

 

Race  9 

1.Ava's Grace

2.Make Mischief

3.Lucifers Lair

#1 AVA'S GRACE got up in time to win at first asking at The Pea Patch on the 3rd of July, and although that race hasn't kicked out anything of relevance, her style of running tells us that today's extra panel and a half should be agreeable. Sire was one for two here ( winning the Jim Dandy ), paternal grandsire was a nose short of being two of two @ The Spa, and maternal granddam closed out the exacta in her lone spin over this oval. You should get some decent value here. #2 MAKE MISCHIEF improved by about 50% when facing winners for the first time in placing in the Schuylerville, but we'll leave beneath as Casse is oh-fer-his-last-24 in this circuit. #5 LUCIFERS LAIR won right here at first asking two dozen days back and the 405 Tomlinson figure tells us there may be plenty of upside here. 

 

Race  10

1.Sanders Empire

2.Gringotts

3.Mebs Web

#2 SANDERS EMPIRE hasn't done much to get the pulse racing ( 22:M-3-1 ), but historically low percentage clan ( 5% ) is on a 5:2-0-1 run with those at 70-1 or lowah ( $52 with Cohen ), and is 3:2-1-0 when being given an animal ( usually a horse ) and spotting them on the dirt off breaks of 27-1 or less ( 56-1 & < ), w/ mutuels of $16 & $7. Bombs away ! #8 GRINGOTTS is 3rd off the bench today and has a few okay running lines, but we'll slide undah, as Papa Englehart is on an 0-20 schneid at NYRA. #4 MEBS WEB as bad as any to close out the day in the lowest level race they run on the grounds.  BEATABLE FAVORITE: #6 DEEPLY ANALYTICAL is backed by an 0-10 Formulator stat with all pertinent categories. 


Saratoga         ( Current ):     36-195     ( $314.70 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-11 ( 45.5% )   Favorites Win %       76-155 ( 39.4% )( As of Wednesday morning )


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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