SaratogaBets Handicapping - Kevin Cox's Saratoga Selections & Analysis - 8/16 - Our 14,000th Race
  
  

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Just a couple'a chalky winners on a day laden with the stuff ( oh, and two successful "Beatable Favorites" as well ).  


Today's Beatable Favorite(s): None


I'd like to leave this bit of info here for y'all. When we're using the DRF Formulator platform while writing our columns, if we say "Sprints", for the most part we mean any one turn race, and when we say "Routes", we mean any TWO turn race. ( For example, we consider a 1 1/8th mile race at Belmont an elongated sprint, and a 6 1/2 furlong race at a Charles Town a route. ) We feel this way, because in our eyes, it's the number of turns that necessitate more energy than being relaxed on a straightaway. Sometimes the sample size for our study can be too large to manually break down, so there may be a few from one category in another, but usually the end result is pretty much the same. Additionally, when it comes to layoffs, we consider more than 50 days in a dirt to dirt scenario a layoff, more than 58 days in D to T or T to D a layoff, and more than 67 days in a turf to turf deal a L/O.


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Saratoga - 8/16 - Our 14,000th Race

 

Race  1

1.Our Flash Drive

2.Stone Town

3.Nevisian Sunrise

#2 OUR FLASH DRIVE didn't show much in the bow, but 385 Tomlinson tells us to give this one another chance, and we like that there's no scary drop, as Rosario sticks around. #4 STONE TOWN outran her odds in a big way when finishing a gamely runner up at 16-1 in the aforementioned heat, and is an obvious factor once again. #6 NEVISIAN SUNRISE is extremely well bred ( 405 Tommy for the dist. ), draws well, and has been conducting her morning affairs in a professional manner.  

 

Race  2

1.Kith

2.Tiz Envy

3.Feeling Dangerous

#8 KITH was in the rear with the gear when beginning his working life on the 23rd, but this one is bred to go longer, and he now takes the biggest drop in the game. May surprise. #9 TIZ ENVY has a decent collection of routing figures and showed appreciable improvement in the lone 1X to 2X try. #6 FEELING DANGEROUS has gone 56-65 in both turf routes, so right off the bat, who knows where his ceiling is in that regards. Blinks go back on as Saez gets the call. OFF TURF: 1A-2B-8-9-4

 

Race  3

1.Pick Up the Phone

2.Lady C

3.Rude Awakening

#2 PICK UP THE PHONE has been a part of the superfecta in her last ten outings, and comes into today off of back to back career best numeros. We like this one's ability to send or rate just a bit, and could be sitting on another goodie in today's 3rd off the layoff attempt. #5 LADY C overcame a bit of trouble to snag 20% of the purse last time out and finds herself at her lowest level to date. Consistent sort should be right there late in the game. #4 RUDE AWAKENING flopped in the initial turf jammie, but that may have been used in an effort to put some bottom into this one after the layoff. Another one at an all time low this afternoon. 

 

Race  4 

1.Tradeable

2.Make or Break

3.Skye Snow

This race marks our 14,000th race for Saratoga Bets, Empire Bets, Batavia Bets & Capital OTB -- and we've done such without having ever taken a day off. Why? Because we love what we do, and have the most loyal collection of readers around. Thank you all so very much. We were all over the #5 TRADEABLE last time out after a less than enthusiastic ride in the start prior to that, and the result was a troubled but spirited runner up at 27-1. May be a bit of an overlay in this spot. #1 MAKE OR BREAK is another who got smacked around in the above heat & is eligible to improve in the second of the shelf start. #6 SKYE SNOW is curiously available for purchase today, despite having posted three decent numeros thus far. Tossing in, but take a peek in the paddock.  OFF TURF: 5-6-7-1-2

 

Race  5

1.Counter Offer

2.Taos ( Fr ) 

3.Midnight Tea Time

#3 COUNTER OFFER ( "That's what us lawyers -- I'm a lawyer ya know -- call a 'counter offer'." ) has improved over his last three starts, and the hat trick is well within reach, especially with a win over the course. #5 TAOS (FR) hasn't been seen since the disappointing American bow last fall, but has been gelded since then and gets Lasix for the first time. #2 MIDNIGHT TEA TIME owns a placing and showing in both "third off the bench" forays, and has hit the board in four of five on the inner.   OFF TURF: 4-2-1-5-6

 

Race  6 

1.Tri Saint Lorenzo 

2.Striking Speed

3.Breithorn

#3 TRI SAINT LORENZO showed improved speed when closing out the triple in this race on the 5th of July, and the top two finishers from that day came back to finish first and second in their followup engagements, improving in the BSF department by an average of 5.5 points. Recognize that the lone 3rd off the shelf spin yielded an adj. 69.1 at a much higher level. #7 STRIKING SPEED popped and stopped in the comebacker, and is an obvious threat if able to get back to the debut. #4 BREITHORN drops a couple'a pegs off a career best figure and makes all kinds of sense. 

 

Race  7

1.Life On Top

2.Winning Factor

3.Picasso

#8 LIFE ON TOP was fanned extremely wide in a similar spot down at Elmont on 6/11 ( earning a lifetime best # in the process ), and six returnees from that fray came back to amass a 6:2-2-1 mark from five different different events with a negligible Beyer change amongst the bunch. Would be aided by a hot pace to cut into. #5 WINNING FACTOR has shown improvement over his last quartet and shoots for the three bagger today. #3 PICASSO goes long and on the lawn for the first time in this spot, and the pedigree says that it's attainable for this in and outer.  OFF TURF: 9-7-10-4(MTO)-11

 

Race  8 

1.Awillaway 

2.Playtone

3.Puffery

#1 AWILLAWAY bested half the field in a similar spot right here two dozen days back ( at 24-1 ) and goes from an apprentice to a journeyman here. Filly owns a 10:3-2-1-3 mark when breaking from the innermost three slots, compared to a 4:0-0-1-1 record otherwise, and has the looks of a decent longshot. #9 PLAYTONE owns a touch of back class and has been working lights out for the return. #10 PUFFERY ( as we just finished watching "The Puffy Shirt" Seinfeld episode ) is a nibbler by rote ( 25:2-5-8 ) and finished third in her lone start when breaking from the outside. 

 

Race  9 

1.Speaktomeofsummer

2.Ricetta ( GB )

3.Stunning Sky 

#1 SPEAKTOMEOFSUMMER has gotten the job done in three of four on the sod ( with the lone blemish coming after a respite, and also her only start with eye cups ), and just may sit a perfect pocket trip. #6 RICETTA (GB) is but three lengths shy of a poyfect 3 fer 3 record, and gets right off the plane for her first start in the U.S. of A., & does such while still eschewing Lasix. Big shot. You can feel free to draw that upwards arrow next to #4 STUNNING SKY, as this one has improved her numbers w/ each passing turf start, so who really knows where her peak is?  OFF TURF: 5-2-4-3-7

 

Race  10

1.Coolboy

2.Big Boy Mo

3.Liam's Fire

#8 COOLBOY showed some early zip on the sod vs. tougher 22 days back, and is now switched back over to a surface that he's historically about 10.2% better on. Note that the lone T to D efforts produced adjusted speed figures of 69.8 & 64.5, which fits decently here. #9 BIG BOY MO showed nothing in the most recent, but is an obvious factor if able to revert to the prior two outings. Leaving beneath because Reylu is about 1 for 90 these days. #1 LIAM'S FIRE closes out the week for us.


Saratoga         ( Current ):     45-236     ( $389.20 ) Beatable   Favorites   5-16 ( 31.3% )   Favorites Win %       88-236 ( 37.3% )( As of Sunday morning ) 


Belmont               ( Final ):     30-249     ( $278.60 ) Beatable  Favorites  7-19  ( 36.8% )    Favorites Win %      92-249 ( 36.9% )

Gulfstream           ( Final ):     58-468    ( $865.50 )  Beatable  Favorites  2-22  ( 9.1% )      Favorites Win %    161-468 ( 34.4% )

Aqueduct Winter  ( Final ):     65-427    ( $615.10 )  Beatable  Favorites  8-18  ( 44.4% )    Favorites Win %:   174-427 ( 40.8% ) 

Graded Stakes ( Current ):       5-24        ( $45.00 )  Beatable Favorites    N/A   (  N/A )      Favorites Win %:     10-24   ( 42.5% )


All Triple Crown, Breeders' Cup, Selected Grade 1's and Travers full days  ( These are also counted in the "Dirt Tracks" category ):

( 2013-2020 Final ) 64-411  ( $581.30 ) Beatable Favorites: 18-56 ( 32.1% ) Favorite's Win %: 139-411 (33.8%)  +/-: -29.2% against a 16.8% takeout  


Poly Tracks2013-16  (All Final): 85-568          ( $819.20 )  Beatable Favorites : 15-68      ( 22.1% )Favorite's Win %: 163-587      ( 27.7% ) +/-: -27.6%  against a 15.6% takeout

Dirt Tracks  2013-20 (All Final):2599-13167 ($22,277.40) Beatable Favorites : 352-1263( 27.9% )Favorite's Win %: 5006-13250 ( 37.8% ) +/-: -15.4%  against a 16.8% takeout


Cumulative Stats    (All Final): 2684-13735 ($23,096.60)  Beatable Favorites : 367-1331( 27.6% )Favorite's Win %: 5188-13837 ( 37.5% ) +/-: -15.9%  against a 16.7% takeout


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